Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.
For those new to the way I handicap, I’m a self-proclaimed “dog-or-pass” bettor, so I’m looking for the most likely dogs to cover each week. However, I also have a lot of longtime readers who bet plenty of chalk and they use this column to see which dogs I’m unable/unwilling to make a case for, and they see that as tacit approval to bet the favorite. Contrary to the opinion of some people out there, I don’t bet every dog as I do believe there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. This approach has continued to work very well so far this season as dogs are 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%) vs. my Vegas consensus closing lines with 2 games closing pick’-em (Commanders-Lions in Week 2, Titans-Commanders in Week 5). Last week, faves went 8-6 SU but faves/dogs split 7-7 ATS with the Broncos the only ATS-covering dog that didn’t win outright. It was shaping up as an awesome Sunday as I won my first 3 Best Bets from this column on the Jets + 7.5 at the Packers, Falcons + 4.5 vs. the 49ers and Patriots + 2.5 at the Browns all not only covering but pulling outright upsets. It was setting up to be an epic day as the Panthers (+ 10 at the Rams) jumped out to an early lead, but unfortunately they couldn’t hold on as they not only lost but also failed to cover in a 24-10 loss. Then, on Sunday night, the Cowboys (+ 6.5) rallied to get within 20-17 of the Eagles but ended up losing 26-17 and failing to cover. We did hit our top 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Saints + 8/Seahawks + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8/Seahawks + 8.5, but it could have been so much better. We’ll try to find the same kind of live dogs this weekend. For those who don’t know, even if I don’t have an official Best Bet on a game, I still do my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. And, after we’re done, we’ll end the column with our regularly scheduled recaps of Tuesday night’s betting action (including winning our Best Bets on the Phillies) and some plays for Wednesday.New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
After two straight Thursday night duds (the Colts’ 12-9 win at the Broncos in Week 5 and the Commanders’ 12-7 win at the Bears in Week 6), this week’s matchup at least has an intriguing storyline with DeAndre Hopkins returning from his 6-game PED suspension. The Cardinals’ offense has been woeful (ranked No. 16 at 346 yards per game) without him, especially in first halves. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is clearly better with Hopkins, but will the improvement be enough against a Saints team that needs this game just as much as the Cardinals as both teams are 2-4. As of deadline Tuesday night, it was still uncertain whether Jameis Winston would return or if Andy Dalton will get another start. Either way, the play is to tease the Saints up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. This line opened Cardinals -1.5 but has been steadily drifting higher, so tease + 2.5 up to + 8.5 if you can get it. There are several teasers to pair this with on Sunday (we’ll get to th ose in a bit), but for our purposes here, let’s use it with the Over 38.5 in this game.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Saints + 8/Over 38.5 (pool play: Saints in all of my rare contests that use the Thursday night game).
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
I gave out the Lions as one of my early Best Bets for this week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archived version). This is partly a fade of the Cowboys, who might be throwing a rusty Dak Prescott back into the starting lineup, but it’s mostly a play on the Lions, who have been golden in the underdog role. Granted, they lost 29-0 at the Patriots in Week 5, but we’re counting on them to have used their much-needed bye week to get back on track as Jared Goff and the Lions were the top offensive team in the league through the first four weeks of the season and are still No. 2 at 411.8 yard per game No. 3 with 28 points per game. In addition, we picked up a nice little tidbit from our VSiN colleague Steve Makinen’s “post-bye week” column as the Lions are 7-2-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012.
Best Bet: Lions + 7 (pool play: Lions 67/33 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower at 6.5 – though Cowboys still 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
This is another early game I gave out and bet I made right away as I was stunned that the Jaguars opened as 3-point favorites. Well, it wasn’t too much of a surprise as that’s around where the advance line was over the summer and up through last week, but I thought the Giants’ 5-1 start and especially their upsets of the Packers and Ravens the past two weeks would have this line moving toward the G-men. In fact, I’m not sure the right team is favored as the Jaguars – as improved as they are – should be the chalk as the only time they’ve been put in the favorite’s role this season was two weeks ago when they lost 13-6 to the Texans as 7-point home favorites. The only thing I feared was that I would be on a public dog, which is usually the kiss of death, but I’m pot-committed here.
Best Bet: Giants + 3 (pool play: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests – higher at 3.5, lower at 2.5 – and also taking them 60/40 in SU pools).
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Both teams had rough starts to the season, but the Titans (3-2 and leading the AFC South) have won three straight games while the Colts have back-to-back wins over the Broncos and Jaguars. This is an early-season rematch as these teams met just three weeks ago with Tennessee winning 24-17 at Indy, so I’m not interested in the Colts at this short number (besides, the Titans are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week games), but I do like them as a teaser play as this should be another one-score game. This is a great spot to discuss the other “advantage” or “Wong” teasers that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7: Jets teased up from + 1.5 to + 7.5 at the Broncos and the Patriots teased down from -8 to -2 vs. the Bears. As a dog bettor, I usually prefer teasing the short dogs up over a TD, but will probably play this with both. Note: some people also like to tease 6- and 7-point favorites down to nearly pick-’em, but those have been bu rning money this year and I don’t like many of those options this week.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Colts + 8.5/Jets + 7.5 at Broncos, plus other teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, but Titans 55/45 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Predicted by many to be the worst team in the league, the Falcons are the biggest overachieving team of the season so far as they’re 6-0 ATS and the last undefeated team vs. the spread after upsetting the 49ers 28-14 on Sunday. With a hodge-podge of RBs and WRs, Marcus Mariota has had the Falcons in every game as they’ve also upset the Browns and Seahawks while covering in losses to the Saints, Rams and Buccaneers.The Bengals have been battling the “Super Bowl loser hangover” with an 0-2 start but are tied for first in the AFC North with the Ravens at 3-3, but I’m still willing to fade them as they’re still not playing as well as they did last year. And I’m going to stick with the Falcons as long as their run lasts.
Best Bet: Falcons + 6 (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, though Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
It’s almost inconceivable how the Ravens have suffered their three losses this season. They blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 loss at the Giants on Sunday. The collapse wasn’t as extreme as their losses to the Dolphins and Bills, but it was still not what we expect from coach John Harbaugh or Lamar Jackson. Still, I can’t pull the trigger on the Browns, who keep doing Browns things as they also blew a big lead to the Jets in Week 2 and then have squandered a 2-1 with three straight losses to the Falcons, Chargers and Dolphins.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Ravens 80/20 in SU contests).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Carolina Panthers
This was my third early recommendation of the week when the Panthers opened as 10-point home dogs vs the Buccaneers, though I did add the caveat that I was waiting to bet it as we felt this line would go higher. And sure enough, even though the Bucs haven’t been as strong as expected (some blame Tom Brady’s marital distractions, some say his age is finally catching up to him), this line has been bet up to 10.5 at all books and up to 11 at DraftKings and other books as of early Wednesday. I get it, as most people are betting against the dysfunctional Panthers, who fired coach Matt Ruhle and then lost 24-10 to the Rams on Sunday with WR Robbie Anderson being kicked off the sideline. However, as ugly as that non-cover ended up being (and I was on the Panthers +), I still saw enough from them taking a 10-7 lead into the locker-room that they can still stay in games; besides, the Bucs are just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS with four straight non-covers. I’ll have to plug my nose , but give me the ugly double-digit home dog.