Saturday was another exciting day of sports betting action in the Tuleys’s Takes home office as we had another full day of college football with also a full day of MLB action.
Per usual, I also spent part of my Saturday not only putting in football contest plays for my proxy clients but also covering the proceedings for my VSiN readers with my weekly “Circa contest update” report. You can find that HERE, plus don’t forget I’ll continue to follow how the contestants do with my Tweets @ViewFromVegas as well as these columns through the weekend. As for my own picks and bets on Saturday, it was mostly a break-even day as I split most of my bets 50/50, In college football, I went 2-2 ATS with my Best Bets as I won with Memphis + 6 at East Carolina and Oklahoma State + 4 at TCU but lost on North Carolina State + 3 at Syracuse and Washington State + 3 at Oregon State. In the MLB playoffs, I pushed on my top recommended play on the Mariners 1st 5 -105 vs. the Astros as they played a scoreless first 5 innings (on the way to a scoreless first 17 innings for that matter!!!), though I heard from a couple of readers that won with the 1st 5 + 0.5 runs wager we’ve been using with our bigger dogs recently, though did lose with the Guardians 1st 5 + 105 vs. the Yankees as they trailed 4-2 through 5 innings before rallying for a 6-5 victory. Let’s recap Saturday’s (full-game) betting action, and then we’ll list our Best Bets for Sunday with the lines currently available as of early Sunday morning. Then, as has been our M.O. around here, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column where I give my “takes” on every NFL game this weekend. Saturday’s RecapsCFB: No. 6 Tennessee (+ 9, + 275) upset No. 3 Alabama 52-49 on Chase McGrath's 40-yard FG as time expired (flew Over betting total of 68 points). Besides Bama, the other teams in the Top 4 both covered (No. Ohio St. was idle) as No. 1 Georgia (-37.5) shut out Vanderbilt 55-0 and No. 4 Clemson (-4.5) covered in 34-28 win at Florida State.
More CFB: In addition to Tennessee-Alabama, other marquee games between ranked teams included No. 5 Michigan (-7) routing No. 10 Penn State 41-17, No. 20 Utah (-3.5) beating No. 7 USC 43-42 (but not covering) and another non-upset as No. 13 TCU (-5) beat No. 8 Oklahoma St. 43-40 in 2OT (also didn't cover).
MLB: Padres (+ 104) upset Dodgers 5-3 late Saturday to win their NLDS series 3-1 (game went Over 7.5). Earlier, Phillies (+ 115) beat Braves 8-3 (Over 9) to win their NLDS 3-1, Astros (-113) beat Mariners 1-0 in 18 inning to sweep their ALDS 3-0 and Guardians (+ 104) beat Yankees 6-5 (Over 6.5) to take 2-1 ALDS lead.
More MLB: Underdogs went 3-1 Saturday (after sweeping 3-0 on Friday), lead 8-6 in LDS round and lead 13-9 overall in playoffs with 1 pick-'em. Home teams went 3-1 on Saturday, lead 10-4 this round and 13-10 overall. Overs went 3-1 on Saturday, lead 8-5-1 this round and 12-10-1 overall.
NHL: Faves went 9-5 Saturday (biggest upsets by the Red Wings + 150 at Devils, Kings + 150 at Wild and Flyers + 140 vs. Canucks) and lead 25-13 on season. Home teams went 8-6 Saturday and lead 22-14 overall (not counting 2 neutral-site games in Prague). Overs dominated at 10-3-1 on Saturday with the push in FLA-BUF (7) and took a 21-16-1 lead.
NFL (ICYMI): After the Commanders’ home/fave/Under result in their 12-7 win at the Bears on Thursday night and heading into Sunday’s action, faves lead 47-31-1 SU with 2 pick-’ems (WAS-DET in Week 2, TEN-WAS in Week 5) but dogs still lead 45-31-3 ATS (59.2%). Home teams dip to 41-37-1 SU with 2 neutral games while road teams improved to 41-35-3 ATS (53.9%). Unders lead 47-33-1 (58.8%), primetime Unders 12-5 (70.6%).
Sunday’s Takes
Patriots + 2.5 at Browns Jets + 7.5 at Packers Falcons + 4.5 vs. 49ers Panthers + 10 at Rams Cowboys + 6.5 at Eagles MLB: We'll pass on Sunday's lone playoff game with the Guardians facing the Yankees in Game 4. Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. You’re looking live at the ViewFromAnaheim as I’m on a little family trip with my wife and son, Maddux, for Oogie Boogie’s Halloween Bash at Disney California Adventure, but a sports betting reporter/handicapper’s job never takes a true vacation, especially during football season. Besides, this trip has been paid for with our winnings this NFL season as our beloved underdogs are hitting at 60% so far at 45-30-3 ATS with 2 pick-’ems as graded vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas after going 10-5 ATS in Week 5. Personally, we went 5-2 ATS with our Best Bets that we listed in the Sunday version of this column with wins on the Giants + 8.5 vs. Packers, Texans + 7 at Jaguars, Falcons + 10 at Buccaneers, Cowboys + 5.5 at Rams and Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens (and 6-2 ATS if including the Browns + 3 vs. the Chargers from earlier in the week for those who jumped in early before the line moved). The losses were on the Steelers + 14 at Bills and Lions + 3.5 at Patriots. We also went 4-1 with our plays in our big Vegas football contests, including one entry in Circa Sports Million that is 17-8 (68%), though my other entries are mostly playing for Quarter prizes unless we can string together some more 4-1 or 5-0 weeks. But that’s the goal, so let’s get to our comprehensive look at the NFL Week 6 card. Loyal readers know us as a “dog-or-pass” bettor, though I have plenty of followers that bet a lot more chalk than I do that still read my breakdowns as they feel that if I can’t made a case for the dog that they see it as a “buy” sign on the chalk. Per usual, even if I don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I give my “pool play” recommendations for those in contests where you have to pick every game. Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-1)Last Thursday’s 12-9 win by the Colts over the Broncos was said to set back offensive football by 50 years, and the conventional wisdom out there is that this Thursday’s game could do the same, especially as primetime Unders are off to an 11-5 start this season. However, in addition to being a “dog-or-pass” bettor, we’re usually an “Under-or-pass” bettor, but above all that we’re a contrarian bettor. If the whole world is saying one thing, we tend to fade the masses, so the Over 37.5 (the lowest total of Week 6) appeals to us. I don’t have much to offer in the way of stats as the Bears have the No. 31 offense at a mere 274 yards per game while the Commanders are No. 17 at 341.6 ypg and both teams are 3-2 with the Under, but QBs Justin Fields and Carson Wentz have shown some signs of competency from time to time. Besides, the Washington and Chicago defense are No. 17 and No. 22 in total defense and allow 23.6 and 21.2 points per game (and that adds up to closer to 44 points), so that gives hope to both teams to help put up enough points to get Over this depressed (and depressing) number.
Best Bet: Over 37.5 (pool play: Bears in all of my rare contests that use Thursday night games).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I already had a 2-team, 6-point teaser from the Chiefs -1 to this game at Buccaneers -2.5, but the Chiefs’ 30-29 win over the Raiders on Monday night makes that a refund. However, this is a good time to start fresh with my recommended teaser plays for Sunday as we have several “advantage teasers” (or “Wong teasers” for the old-school bettors out there) that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. We’ve also already gone on record with the Seahawks vs. the Cardinals, so our top teaser for Week 6 is Buccaneers -2.5/Seahawks + 8.5, but we’ll also be doing other combinations with the following plays: Saints + 8 vs. the Bengals, Jaguars + 8.5, Patriots + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8.5 vs. the Bills.
Best Bet: Bucs -2.5/Seahawks + 8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser, plus other teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but closer to 90/10 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at New Orleans Saints