Thursday was a full sports betting day with an MLB playoff game during the afternoon, plus 10 NHL games and, of course, Thursday Night Football with an NFL game and a couple of CFB games as well.
A second MLB playoff game was originally on the schedule with Guardians at Yankees. It was postponed early in the day, but at least we had plenty of football to watch at night. Unfortunately, we lost our “Best Bet” on the Commanders-Bears Over 37.5. We wrote: Last Thursday’s 12-9 win by the Colts over the Broncos was said to set back offensive football by 50 years, and the conventional wisdom out there is that this Thursday’s game could do the same.” We thought the total was adjusted too low, but we were wrong. Very wrong, as the Commanders beat the Bears 12-7 and the Under was never in doubt. At least we won our Mariners 1st 5 + 0.5 runs and + 120 money line bets as they led the Astros 2-1 after the first 5 innings, though they lost 4-2 to fall down 2-0 to really hurt the chances of our + 200 series bet coming in, but at least we’re still making money. Let’s recap Thursday’s (full-game) betting action, and then look for more plays on Friday. In addition, as we’ve started doing this season, we’ll rerun that Wednesday column where I give my “takes” on every NFL game this weekend. Thursday’s RecapsNFL: Commanders rallied, then held on for a 12-7 win at Bears, who came up just short of goal line on their last offensive play, on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 6. The Commanders also covered after closing as 1-point road favorites (stayed waaaaay Under betting total of 39 points).
More NFL: Faves lead 47-31-1 SU with 2 pick-’ems (WAS-DET in Week 2, TEN-WAS in Week 5) but dogs still lead 45-31-3 ATS (59.2%). Home teams dip to 41-37-1 SU with 2 neutral games while road teams improved to 41-35-3 ATS (53.9%). Unders lead 47-33-1 (58.8%), primetime Unders 12-5 (70.6%).
CFB: For those who wanted to watch offensive football (instead of “offensive” football) on Thursday night, West Virginia (+ 3, + 142 money line) upset Baylor 43-40 (went waaaaay Over 55) and Central Florida (-23.5) routed & covered 70-13 vs. Temple (went waaaaay Over 46.5).
MLB: Astros (-146 home favorites) rallied to beat Mariners 4-2 to take 2-0 lead in their ALDS (game stayed just Under betting total of 6.5 runs). Guardians-Yankees Game 2 was postponed and is rescheduled for Friday afternoon before the 2 NLDS games.
More MLB: Favorites are 5-2 so far in League Division Series round and took 8-7 overall lead in playoffs after underdogs led 5-3 with 1 pick-'em in wild-card round. Home teams also lead 5-2 this round and are now tied 8-8 overall. Overs dipped to 4-3 this round and also tied 8-8 overall.
NHL: Faves/dogs split 5-5 Thursday with upsets by the . Including neutral-site games in Prague, faves lead 12-8 on the season. Home teams went 6-4 Thursday and lead 12-6 overall (of course, not counting the 2 neutral-site games in Prague). Under went 6-4 Thursday and now Over/Unders tied 10-10.
Friday’s Takes
Navy + 12.5 at SMU: We understand why SMU is favored in this matchup of 2-3 teams as Navy isn’t as strong as we’ve seen in recent years, but the Mustangs shouldn’t be favored by nearly two touchdowns. Navy can still run the ball (averaging 231.8 yards per game) while SMU is 106th in run defense and 103rd in total defense, so that should help the Midshipmen keep this game close.
Padres 1st 5 + 110 at Dodgers: We haven’t backed the Padres yet in this series (though we wish we had in Game 2), but we’ll take them here in pivotal Game 3 as home underdogs. The Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin has obviously had the better season, but the Padres’ Blake Snell has much more and better playoff experience and we’ll count on him to keep this close early.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule. You’re looking live at the ViewFromAnaheim as I’m on a little family trip with my wife and son, Maddux, for Oogie Boogie’s Halloween Bash at Disney California Adventure, but a sports betting reporter/handicapper’s job never takes a true vacation, especially during football season. Besides, this trip has been paid for with our winnings this NFL season as our beloved underdogs are hitting at 60% so far at 45-30-3 ATS with 2 pick-’ems as graded vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas after going 10-5 ATS in Week 5. Personally, we went 5-2 ATS with our Best Bets that we listed in the Sunday version of this column with wins on the Giants + 8.5 vs. Packers, Texans + 7 at Jaguars, Falcons + 10 at Buccaneers, Cowboys + 5.5 at Rams and Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens (and 6-2 ATS if including the Browns + 3 vs. the Chargers from earlier in the week for those who jumped in early before the line moved). The losses were on the Steelers + 14 at Bills and Lions + 3.5 at Patriots. We also went 4-1 with our plays in our big Vegas football contests, including one entry in Circa Sports Million that is 17-8 (68%), though my other entries are mostly playing for Quarter prizes unless we can string together some more 4-1 or 5-0 weeks. But that’s the goal, so let’s get to our comprehensive look at the NFL Week 6 card. Loyal readers know us as a “dog-or-pass” bettor, though I have plenty of followers that bet a lot more chalk than I do that still read my breakdowns as they feel that if I can’t made a case for the dog that they see it as a “buy” sign on the chalk. Per usual, even if I don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I give my “pool play” recommendations for those in contests where you have to pick every game. Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-1)Last Thursday’s 12-9 win by the Colts over the Broncos was said to set back offensive football by 50 years, and the conventional wisdom out there is that this Thursday’s game could do the same, especially as primetime Unders are off to an 11-5 start this season. However, in addition to being a “dog-or-pass” bettor, we’re usually an “Under-or-pass” bettor, but above all that we’re a contrarian bettor. If the whole world is saying one thing, we tend to fade the masses, so the Over 37.5 (the lowest total of Week 6) appeals to us. I don’t have much to offer in the way of stats as the Bears have the No. 31 offense at a mere 274 yards per game while the Commanders are No. 17 at 341.6 ypg and both teams are 3-2 with the Under, but QBs Justin Fields and Carson Wentz have shown some signs of competency from time to time. Besides, the Washington and Chicago defense are No. 17 and No. 22 in total defense and allow 23.6 and 21.2 points per game (and that adds up to closer to 44 points), so that gives hope to both teams to help put up enough points to get Over this depressed (and depressing) number.
Best Bet: Over 37.5 (pool play: Bears in all of my rare contests that use Thursday night games).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I already had a 2-team, 6-point teaser from the Chiefs -1 to this game at Buccaneers -2.5, but the Chiefs’ 30-29 win over the Raiders on Monday night makes that a refund. However, this is a good time to start fresh with my recommended teaser plays for Sunday as we have several “advantage teasers” (or “Wong teasers” for the old-school bettors out there) that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. We’ve also already gone on record with the Seahawks vs. the Cardinals, so our top teaser for Week 6 is Buccaneers -2.5/Seahawks + 8.5, but we’ll also be doing other combinations with the following plays: Saints + 8 vs. the Bengals, Jaguars + 8.5, Patriots + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8.5 vs. the Bills.
Best Bet: Bucs -2.5/Seahawks + 8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser, plus other teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but closer to 90/10 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at New Orleans Saints