Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column where we give our “takes” on the full NFL schedule.
You’re looking live at the ViewFromAnaheim as I’m on a little family trip with my wife and son, Maddux, for Oogie Boogie’s Halloween Bash at Disney California Adventure, but a sports betting reporter/handicapper’s job never takes a true vacation, especially during football season. Besides, this trip has been paid for with our winnings this NFL season as our beloved underdogs are hitting at 60% so far at 45-30-3 ATS with 2 pick-’ems as graded vs. the consensus closing lines in Vegas after going 10-5 ATS in Week 5. Personally, we went 5-2 ATS with our Best Bets that we listed in the Sunday version of this column with wins on the Giants + 8.5 vs. Packers, Texans + 7 at Jaguars, Falcons + 10 at Buccaneers, Cowboys + 5.5 at Rams and Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens (and 6-2 ATS if including the Browns + 3 vs. the Chargers from earlier in the week for those who jumped in early before the line moved). The losses were on the Steelers + 14 at Bills and Lions + 3.5 at Patriots. We also went 4-1 with our plays in our big Vegas football contests, including one entry in Circa Sports Million that is 17-8 (68%), though my other entries are mostly playing for Quarter prizes unless we can string together some more 4-1 or 5-0 weeks. But that’s the goal, so let’s get to our comprehensive look at the NFL Week 6 card. Loyal readers know we as a “dog-or-pass” bettor, though I have plenty of followers that bet a lot more chalk than I do that still read my breakdowns as they feel that if I can’t made a case for the dog that they see it as a “buy” sign on the chalk. Per usual, even if I don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I give my “pool play” recommendations for those in contests where you have to pick every game. And, after we’re done, we’ll end this column with our regularly scheduled recaps of Tuesday night’s betting action and some plays for Wednesday as the MLB playoffs are in full swing.Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-1)
Last Thursday’s 12-9 win by the Colts over the Broncos was said to set back offensive football by 50 years, and the conventional wisdom out there is that this Thursday’s game could do the same, especially as primetime Unders are off to an 11-5 start this season. However, in addition to being a “dog-or-pass” bettor, we’re usually an “Under-or-pass” bettor, but above all that we’re a contrarian bettor. If the whole world is saying one thing, we tend to fade the masses, so the Over 37.5 (the lowest total of Week 6) appeals to us. I don’t have much to offer in the way of stats as the Bears have the No. 31 offense at a mere 274 yards per game while the Commanders are No. 17 at 341.6 ypg and both teams are 3-2 with the Under, but QBs Justin Fields and Carson Wentz have shown some signs of competency from time to time. Besides, the Washington and Chicago defense are No. 17 and No. 22 in total defense and allow 23.6 and 21.2 points per game (and that adds up to closer to 44 points), so that gives hope to both teams to help put up enough points to get Over this depressed (and depressing) number.
Best Bet: Over 37.5 (pool play: Bears in all of my rare contests that use Thursday night games).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I already had a 2-team, 6-point teaser from the Chiefs -1 to this game at Buccaneers -2.5, but the Chiefs’ 30-29 win over the Raiders on Monday night makes that a refund. However, this is a good time to start fresh with my recommended teaser plays for Sunday as we have several “advantage teasers” (or “Wong teasers” for the old-school bettors out there) that capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. We’ve also already gone on record with the Seahawks vs. the Cardinals, so our top teaser for Week 6 is Buccaneers -2.5/Seahawks + 8.5, but we’ll also be doing other combinations with the following plays: Saints + 8 vs. the Bengals, Jaguars + 8.5, Patriots + 8.5 and Chiefs + 8.5 vs. the Bills.
Best Bet: Bucs -1.5/Seahawks + 8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser, plus other teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but closer to 90/10 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at New Orleans Saints
As alluded to above, the theme of this week looks like there’s a lot of short dogs I like, but not enough to bet ATS. The Bengals (2-3) are in a fadeable spot as they’re suffering from the “Super Bowl loser hangover.” As of deadline, it’s unsure if Jameis Winston will return at QB for New Orleans or if Andy Dalton will start again, but either way it’s safe to assume backup QB/TE Taysom Hill (112 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs, 1 TD passing and a fumble recovery on special teams vs. the Seahawks) will continue to have an expanded role. This number’s just too short to get me to make it a Best Bet, but . . .
Best Bet: Pass, but Saints in teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests but Bengals still 55/45 in SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Here’s another short spread, but I can make a case for this dog. For starters, I’m not so sure the right team is favored here. Is everyone’s memory too short to remember that the Jaguars thoroughly dominated the Colts 24-0 just four weeks ago? I know the Jaguars let down a lot of people in their Survivor pools (including yours truly) with their 13-6 loss to the Texans this past Sunday, but it’s not like the Colts are playing that much better after their thrilling – ahem – 12-9 OT win at Denver last Thursday night. I love rematches where the team getting points actually won the previous meeting.
Best Bet: Jaguars + 2.5, but waiting for 3, plus teasers (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in SU and ATS contests – higher at 3 or 3.5 in ATS contests.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Here’s yet another short number with an enticing dog. The Patriots are coming off a 29-0 shutout of the Lions, the NFL’s former No. 1 scoring team, as Bill Belichick once again proved he always has the coaching edge and shouldn’t be taken lightly. And now he faces the Browns, who still have trouble winning close games after falling 30-28 to the Chargers this past Sunday. Several books have gone to Patriots + 3 -120 and that would be my preferred play, though again I’m going to use liberally in teasers.
Best Bet: Patriots + 3 or better (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests and let’s call for outright upset at 55/45 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
I’ve already given this out at Jets + 7.5 on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version) and in these columns earlier this week, and hopefully everyone with me grabbed the + 7.5 as it’s down to 7 at a lot of books. The Jets have been surprisingly competitive, first with Joe Flacco and now Zach Wilson, plus this is a fade of the Packers like we did with the Giants in London. Aaron Rodgers and his young receivers are still not in sync and I see no reason the Jets can’t keep this within one score and possibly also upset the Pack.
Best Bet: Jets + 7.5 or 7 (pool play: Jets 67/33 in ATS contests – lower if only offered 7 or 6.5 – but Packers still 65/35 in SU pools).