Tuley's Takes: Thursday Best Bets in Game 1 of NBA Finals, plus an MLB First 5 play
Tuley's Takes: Thursday Best Bets in Game 1 of NBA Finals, plus an MLB First 5 play  


Wednesday Best Bet Results

Wednesday was another great day for Team Tuley (and yours truly) on the last full day of our Hawaiian family vacation.

I went 2-0 with my Best Bets on the day and they both were cashed by noon Hawaii Time before we went for our surfing lesson at Kailua Beach on Oahu. Me and my kids Jordyn and Maddux were able to get up on our boards and ride a couple of small waves (though I certainly failed more times than I succeeded). But all the hard work of actually pulling my dad bod up on the board, paddling out and trying to do a push-up and popping up on the board paid off.

And my handicapping efforts were also rewarded with my top play of the day on the Angels First 5 Innings +100 at the White Sox easily cashing as they jumped off to a 2-0 lead on Lance Lynn as we predicted and led 8-1 after 5 innings (we actually got +120, another example of how my followers often fare better than my “official” posted record) and coasting to a 12-5 victory for our readers that also bet our plays on the full-game money line. Our secondary play on the Pirates First 5 -105 also easily won as they led the Giants 6-2 after 5 on the way to a 9-4 triumph.

The 2-0 sweep wrapped up the month of May as we went 41-28-8 (59.4%) – even more impressive when you consider that many of those wins have been underdogs – and the plus-money has us still showing a net profit of $1,560.79 based on $100 flat bets, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page

Let’s try to start June on a winning note as we have our Best Bet in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and then just 1 MLB play on the short Thursday card.

NBA Thursday Best Bet

Heat +9 at Nuggets: As we wrote in yesterday’s “Tuley’s Takes” column, “We fully intend to play the underdog Miami Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals at the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night, but we’re not ready to lock it in yet as the Nuggets opened between -8 and -8.5 and the Heat were up to +9 at most books as of early Wednesday morning. We’ll see if the line goes higher by the time we file our Tuley’s Takes column for Thursday morning, but readers are advised to monitor the lines on Wednesday and grab the most points possible with the Heat if the line starts to reverse.”

I know the Nuggets have been the best team in the playoffs at 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS (60%), but while the Heat, led by Jimmy Butler, have gone 12-6 SU and needing 3 more games to get here, they’ve actually been better at 13-5 ATS (72.2%). And don’t forget that even though the Nuggets swept the Lakers, they failed to cover the spread in their Game 1 and 2 wins. I can see the same thing here, especially as the Heat went into Boston and stole Games 1 and 2 and also won Game 7 on the road. I’m not as confident in the Heat being able to win this series, but I can see it unfolding in a similar fashion, especially with the Heat just needing to cover to cash our bets when they’re underdogs.

In addition, I feel I have a good handle on this Miami team as I went 6-0 ATS with my plays here in the Eastern Conference Finals. I was on the Heat in their Game 1 and 2 upsets, then stuck with them when they were offered at +4.5 in Game 3 at home. I then showed why we’re “betting numbers and not teams” as I took the Celtics +1.5 in Game 4 when the whole world seemed to jump off the Boston bandwagon. I then used our “dog-or-pass strategy” as we passed on the Heat in Game 5 (showing that “pass” is a very important part of “dog-or-pass”) as the Celtics were in the zig-zag role, but then jumped back on the Heat in their spread-covering loss in Game 6 and of course as big dogs in Game 7.

We’ll start with the Heat plus the points in Game 1 and see how the series plays out game-by-game this time.

MLB Thursday Best Bet

Reds First 5 Innings +135 at Red Sox: The Reds started the season as the worst team in the majors, but they’ve been playing better lately (you’ve noticed this if reading my nightly ATS Report columns at VSiN.com) as they’ve won 5 straight games, all as underdogs of +125 or more. They’ve also had Boston’s number as they’ve beaten them the last 2 days and are going for the sweep, but still a juicy, sizable dog. We’ll take it. I’m not totally thrilled with the pitching matchup of Hunter Greene (1-4, 4.18 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (5-2, 4.72 ERA), but Greene is coming off a 6-inning, no-hitting start vs. the Cubs that started the Reds’ winning streak, so we’ll take the hot hand and hotter team (the Red Sox have lost 3 straight).

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