Week 3 picks from a “dog or pass” point of view”
NFL Week 2 was another winning weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office, and hopefully for our “dog-or-pass” disciples.
Favorites went 10-6 straight-up in Week 2, but underdogs led 8-5-3 ATS. Those betting stats are against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that I get from the average of the books here in Las Vegas, but you could certainly argue that dogs were actually 10-5-1 ATS as many of us were able to get the Vikings +7 or +6.5 in their 34-28 loss at the Eagles on Thursday night and the Rams +8 or +7.5 in their 30-23 loss vs. the 49ers.
(Note: We know none of our followers are whining about L.A. coach Sean McVay sending out the field goal unit for the “meaningless” FG to cover the spread at the end of the game, but it’s just another example of why we’re “dog-or-pass” bettors. The 49ers didn’t care about letting the Rams in the backdoor as their goal is to win. Besides, anyone laying 7.5 points when they could have shopped around -7 to insure against a push kinda got what they deserved, if you ask me.)
Anyway, we went 3-2 ATS with our Best Bets here in these weekly columns (6-4 ATS on the young season) to be right at the 60% goal we all aspire to. We actually went 6-2 with our posted Best Bets as we also won our lone Over/Under play of the week with the Saints-Panthers Under 40 in the Saints’ 20-17 victory and also swept our two posted 2-team, 6-point teasers with the Falcons +1.5/Jaguars +8.5 in the early Sunday games and the Steelers +8.5/Over 33 in the Monday night finale.
It was a winning weekend but probably should have been better as I also went out of my way in last week’s intro to write, “Several Over/Unders have been lowered by multiple points this weekend from where they were on the advance lines just a week ago. That’s to be expected as Unders went 12-4 (75%) in Week 1 as oddsmakers make adjustments and bettors jump on the Under bandwagon. From our point of view, we would expect the trend to reverse, so there should be some value in going Over some of these deflated totals.”
Overs went 13-3, but we only teased the Browns-Steelers total. Whoops! Seems like a bunch of missed opportunities. But longtime readers of mine know that I generally stick to full-game ATS bets in the NFL with my dogs unless I’m struggling, then I look more to other markets like first-half bets, totals, etc.
So, without further ado, let’s get to the NFL Week 3 card. For those new to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books! Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
I’m sure my regular readers are assuming I’m taking the Giants here as double-digit underdogs in prime-time, but my initial thought is to invoke the “pass” part of “dog-or-pass.” While I generally try to ignore conventional wisdom with so many people saying the 49ers are probably the best all-around team in the NFL, my hesitation is more from the fact I haven’t seen enough from the Giants to think they can keep up (and that’s even if Saquon Barkley is able to play).
The Giants were dominated 40-0 by the Cowboys (another candidate for the best all-around team) in the opener and trailed 20-0 to the lowly Cardinals before somehow rallying to win 31-28. Maybe that should give hope that Daniel Jones could rally the Giants to a backdoor cover, but I’m not buying it.
Best Bet: Pass (Giants 55/45 in my very rare ATS contests that use Thursday night games, but 49ers in all SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (pick ’em)
Both teams are off to disappointing 0-2 starts, so this is a huge game for both. The advance line for this was Chargers -1.5 but was down to pick ’em at most books nationwide as of this writing on Wednesday morning. This could be a sign that the public is no longer in love with the Chargers, who they always see as having so much potential, but the team always seems to underachieve for whatever reason.
This looks like a coin-flip game that the spread suggests. I wish bettors would bet one of these teams to -1.5 and into the “teaser zone” so I could tease the dog up over a touchdown, but I’m not confident of that happening.
Best Bet: Pass (Vikings a very lukewarm 55/45 in SU and ATS contests).
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-3)
The Browns lost to the Steelers on Monday night and also lost star RB Nick Chubb with his gruesome knee injury. Those events have also led this line to go from Browns -4.5 down to -3. In addition, the Titans upset the Chargers and have been exceeding expectations as they’re 2-0 ATS after covering in their Week 1 loss at the Saints.
Cleveland RB Jerome Ford is the flavor-of-the-week fantasy waiver-wire pickup. (They also brought back Kareem Hunt.) But those who picked him up might be disappointed as he has to face Tennessee’s tough run defense. I still think this line is too short to take the Titans +3, but I love them in a teaser so we’ll use them at +9 with the Jets +8.5 (or +9) for our early-slate play. Other potential teaser options with the Titans would be Saints +8, Steelers +8.5 and Rams +8.5 (or also Bills -0.5 and Ravens -1.5 for the chalk-loving crowd).
Best Bet: Pass (Titans 55/45 in ATS contests but flip to Browns 55/45 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
I wrote in Week 1 that I would probably be on the Texans a lot this season. (Note: They failed to cover +10 in their 25-10 loss to the Ravens, though they only trailed 7-6 at halftime.) I’m proud of the fact we passed on them in Week 2 as they lost 31-10 vs. the Colts (we actually used the Colts +1 in Circa Sports Million as we couldn’t believe the Texans were actually favored), but this looks like a great spot to jump back on them, especially as the Jaguars are in the dreaded “perennial-underdog-losing-when-thrust-in-the-role-of-favorite” scenario.
Most people are expecting the Jaguars to bounce back from the loss to the Chiefs, but I wouldn’t trust them to win by double digits here as the Texans have enough weapons to keep this close as we also expect to see CJ Stroud continue to improve.
Best Bet: Texans +9.5 (Texans 67/33 in ATS contests – even higher at +10 or +10.5 – but Jaguars around 75/25 in SU pools).
New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York Jets
The Jets +9.5 let us down in their 30-10 loss at the Cowboys as Zach Wilson didn’t show the improvement we were expecting from Aaron Rodgers’ tutelage. The advanced line on this game was Jets -3.5 during the off-season with Rodgers but flipped to Patriots -2 after his season-ending injury.
I’m still not sure the 0-2 Patriots should be favored, but the line is still too short for me to take Wilson and the Jets under a field goal, though we’ll gladly tease them up over a touchdown. As we mentioned above, we’re pairing it with Titans +9 in Sunday’s early games as well as other later games.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser on Jets +8.5/Titans +9 (Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but Patriots 55/45 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-2)
Here we have another short spread, but we’re willing to take the Saints, who are off to a 2-0 start though they’re 0-1-1 ATS with a non-covering 16-15 win vs. the Titans and a push in a 20-17 win at the Panthers. Derek Carr isn’t reminding anyone in New Orleans of Drew Brees, but he’s doing enough to get the job done and I’ll still take him vs. Jordan Love. Besides, I expect the Saints to continue with the ground game (Tony Jones in for injured Jamaal Williams) and probably an increased role for Taysom Hill. I’m calling for the outright upset here, but will also use the Saints in teasers just in case.
Best Bet: Saints +2, plus Saints +8 in teasers (Saints 67/33 in all SU and ATS contests).