Week 18 picks from a “dog or pass” point of view”
Here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we hope all our readers/followers had a happy and safe New Year’s Eve and are off to a good start toward a happy and prosperous 2024.
Before closing out 2023 with a winning bet on Washington over Texas in the Sugar Bowl/CFB Playoff semifinal from our college football column last week, we went 3-5 ATS with our NFL Week 17 Best Bets with wins on the Lions +6 at the Cowboys in a 20-19 loss on Saturday night (we loved getting the back-door cover with the Lions’ late TD before the failed 2-point conversion), Patriots +12 at the Bills in a 27-21 loss and the Raiders +3.5 at the Colts in a 23-20 loss as all three covered without winning outright. Losses were on the Jets +7.5 at the Browns, Dolphins +3.5 at Cowboys, Commanders +13.5 vs. the 49ers, Bengals +7 at the Bengals and Chargers +3.5 at the Broncos.
Here’s our weekly disclaimer: For newcomers to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books!
Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.
Let’s move on to NFL Week 18, which is far different than any other week of the season, just like it was when the season was 17 weeks long or 16 weeks before that, with some teams having already locked up their playoff position and “nothing to play for” while others have been eliminated and are “playing out the string.” And then you have teams in “must-win situations.”
These situations have a huge impact on the point spreads as oddsmakers obviously adjust, and then the sharps and squares also tend to steam the lines. These moves often do win (though harder to cover the inflated lines), but handicappers also have to remember something I’ve written for years, and I’m sure you’ll be hearing on VSiN all week long: “just because a team must win doesn’t mean it will win.”
As always, the point spread is the great equalizer, so we’ll go through the full schedule per usual and try to find the Best Bets.
One last note, all year, we list the games in the Nevada Rotation order, but for this week, it makes more sense to break them down by kickoff times. For starters, there’s no Thursday game, but we had two Saturday games flexed to that day and have betting numbers in the middle of the Week 18 rotation. Also, six games kick off at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT Sunday and seven games at 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT, and they’re all over the place, not to mention (though I guess that’s what I’m doing right now LMEAO) the Sunday Night Football season-finale with the Bills visiting the Dolphins for the AFC East title at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Baltimore Ravens
Saturday’s first game means more to the Steelers as they need a win (and a Jaguars or Bills loss) to make the playoffs, while the Ravens have already clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed/first-round bye and will probably rest a lot of starters. Obviously, if those scenarios weren’t in place, the red-hot Ravens would be a sizable favorite.
I was going to pass on this game, but I’ve actually decided to play the Ravens at the best possible number (it climbed to +4 at the majority of Las Vegas books on Wednesday morning) as this is still a rivalry game, so Baltimore should be motivated to play spoiler, plus – while John Harbaugh is certainly incentivized to rest as many key starters as possible – he really can’t sit them all as he doesn’t want too much rust since the Ravens won’t play again for two more weeks. Besides, this is one of those “just because a team must win doesn’t mean it will win” games, plus I’m still not totally sold on Mason Rudolph, and he’s easy to fade in this spot laying more than a field goal
Best Bet: Ravens +4 or higher (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests while Steelers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Houston Texans -1 at Indianapolis Colts
The Saturday nightcap has even more playoff implications, as the winner is guaranteed an AFC wild-card spot and could steal the AFC South if the Jaguars lose at the Titans (don’t ask about ties LMEAO). As indicated by the spread, this is a coin-flip game. As such, we’d love to tease either team in 2-leg, 6-point teasers to +7.5. With the Texans favored as of this writing, that means we'd be waiting to see if one of our teaser options goes to Colts +1.5. We also like that side, as the Colts did beat the Texans 31-20 back in Week 2, though the Colts lost Anthony Richardson long ago for the season, while the Texans obviously have improved.
Best Bet: Pass, except for Colts in potential teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).