Week 14 picks from a “dog or pass” point of view”
Our “roller coaster” of an NFL season continued on its downward segment of track in the Tuley’s Takes home office in unlucky Week 13.
The really frustrating part for yours truly is this is usually the time of year when we make bank as the conventional wisdom out there is that there is a bigger gap between the haves and have-nots, so that usually leads to favorites being overinflated and underdogs being underrated and getting far too many points. But it hasn’t worked out that way the past two weekends.
After favorites dominated 12-4 SU and ATS in Week 12 (which included Thanksgiving) and we went 2-4 ATS with our supposed Best Bets, faves went 10-3 SU & ATS in Week 13, but I fared even worse at 1-4 ATS.
We took a goose egg on Sunday at 0-4 ATS with the Saints +4 vs. the Lions, Commanders +9.5 vs. Dolphins, Broncos +3.5 at Texans and Browns +3.5 at Rams all failing to cover the spread. The Saints and Broncos had their chances, but the Commanders and Browns weren’t close.
At least we cut some of our losses with the Bengals +8.5 at the Jaguars as they pulled the 34-31 outright upset in OT on Monday Night Football (Bengals closed +10, so tons of value for late bettors, plus we grabbed +400 on the moneyline to further cut our losses).
Let’s move on to the full Week 14 card with 15 games as the Cardinals and Commanders are the last teams to get their bye weeks – and hopefully, more of our underdog plays are live like the Bengals and not like the others.
For newcomers to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books! Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
This Thursday nighter with the Patriots (2-10) visiting the Steelers (-7-5) wasn’t circled by too many people as must-see TV, though Mike Tomlin has Pittsburgh heading toward another winning season and in the thick of the AFC wild-card race. My first thought would be to take Bill Belichick off a loss, but it’s actually been five straight losses since the Pats’ 29-25 upset of the Bills in Week 7. Regular readers know I like Bailey Zappe, but New England’s points scored in those five games are 17, 17, 6, 6, 0. I can’t take them at less than a TD, even in a game with an incredibly low Over/Under at 30 points (and I won’t be touching the total either)!
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in my rare ATS contests that use the Thursday night game and all SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-3)
This is a pretty important game in the AFC playoff race with the Jaguars (8-4 and trying to hold on in the AFC South with a lead down to one game) visiting the Browns (7-5 and in the wild-card hunt). The advance line for this game last week was Jaguars -3, but has flipped with the high ankle sprain suffered by Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence. But we feel that’s an overadjustment as Lawrence still hasn’t been declared out; besides, backup CJ Beathard went 9-for-10 and led the tying FG drive late in regulation vs. the Bengals on Monday Night Football, though was unable to get the win in OT. I actually like Jacksonville’s QB options better than Cleveland's. FYI: DraftKings offering Jaguars +3.5 -115 as of early Wednesday night, so as always shop around.
Best Bet: Jaguars +3 or better (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests – higher at +3.5 – but Browns still 55/45 in SU pools).