Thursday Night Football and NFL Week 17 Best Bets
Wednesday was a day of catching up on some bowl previews and tracking the lines on our NFL Week 17 Best Bets, including Thursday Night Football.
It was also very profitable with a win on our Best Bet on Texas Tech (+3.5) as the Red Raiders beat Mississippi 42-25 in the Texas Bowl. We also won our second play of the day with the NHL’s Red Wings (+175) beating the Penguins 5-4 in OT. That wasn’t as easy as the Red Wings fell behind 4-0 and we were wondering where the “swagger” was from them snapping a 6-game losing streak in their prior game, but they then scored 5 unanswered goals to get us the cash. The Texas Tech win snapped a 2-game losing streak of our own, so we improved to 38-22-2 ATS (63.3%) with our daily top play the last 62 days. We’re pretty proud of that as we haven’t seen anyone else doing that over a nearly 9-week run to end the calendar year and sincerely hope our readers have been along for the ride on most of the plays (it should have paid for your VSiN subscription and then some!). Let’s get to our daily recaps of yesterday’s betting action in the major sports and then our Best Bet for Thursday Night Football. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll repeat our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 17 schedule, including our original post on tonight’s game. We then add updates in italics based on how the lines are moving.Wednesday Recaps
CFB: Texas Tech (+3.5) upset Mississippi 42-25 in the Texas Bowl late Wednesday (stayed Under betting total of 72.5 points). Oregon (-13) rallied to beat North Carolina 28-27 in Holiday Bowl, but didn't cover (stayed Under 76.5). Earlier, Arkansas (-1.5) outlasted Kansas 55-53 in 3OT at Liberty Bowl, covering vs. the closing line but not earlier, higher lines (went Over total of 70.5 even before the OTs) and Duke (-3) covered in 30-13 win vs. Central Florida in the Military Bowl (stayed Under 62.5).
More CFB: Faves went 3-1 SU on Wednesday, but split 2-2 ATS. The upset was by Texas Tech (+3.5) while North Carolina (+13) covered in loss. Unders led 3-1.Overall in bowl season, faves improved to 16-10 SU while dogs still lead 14-12 ATS (53.8%). Unders improved to 16-9-1 (64%).
CBB: LSU beat No. 9 Arkansas 60-57 as 4-point home underdog. Missouri upset No. 19 Kentucky 89-75 as 3-point home dog. In Wednesday's only game between Top 25 teams, No. 8 Alabama beat No. 21 Mississippi State 79-67 as 1.5-point road favorite.
NBA: Faves/dogs split 4-4 SU, but dogs dominated 7-1 ATS. The upsets were by the Warriors (+4.5 vs. Jazz), Bulls (+2.5 vs. Bucks), Wizards (+2.5 vs. Suns) and Pistons (-102 vs. Magic). The Hawks (+7 vs. Nets), Timberwolves (+6.5 at Pelicans) and Nuggets (+3 at Kings) all covered in losses. Home teams 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Over/Unders split 4-4.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 327-186 SU with 9 game closing pick-'em, but dogs improved to 261-236-16 ATS (52.5%). Home teams lead 319-203 SU and 270-237-15 ATS (53.3%). In totals wagering, Overs lead 267-249-6 (51.7%).
NHL: Faves went 3-2 on Wednesday. The upsets were by the Red Wings (+175 at Penguins) and Ducks (+143 vs. Golden Knights). Road teams went 3-2 while Unders led 4-1. On the season, faves lead 324-207 with 16 PKs. Home teams 285-258 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders 268-257-22.
NFL Thursday Best Bet
Titans +12.5 vs. Cowboys: Yes, we know the Titans have lost five straight games and are 0-4-1 ATS during that run. And their No. 30 offense is even worse with QB Ryan Tannehill being out with a right ankle injury and replaced with rookie Malik Willis. This line opened Cowboys -9.5 at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon, but when it crossed the semi-key number of 10, I couldn’t resist taking the Titans. Double-digit underdogs are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) this season, but are actually perfect at 4-0 ATS when they’re at home: Panthers +13 vs. Buccaneers in Week 7, Texans +14 vs. Eagles in Week 9 (also on Thursday Night Football), Jets +10.5 vs. Bills in Week 9 and Texans 14 vs. Chiefs in Week 15. With the move to Cowboys -12 at most books on Wednesday (as high as 13 at the Westgate), I like it even more.
Welcome to the weekly Wednesday version of “Tuley’s Takes Today” where we break down the complete NFL Week 17 card with our “takes” on each game, and even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a given matchup, we give our “pool play strategy,” especially for those in contests where they have to make a pick on every game.
After one of our best weeks in NFL Week 15, we had one of our worst in Week 16 as we went 2-5 ATS with our top plays as we had wins on the Texans +3.5 and Cardinals +7.5 but losses on the Bears +8.5, Patriots +3, Falcons +7, Eagles +5.5 and Colts +5. Fortunately, we cut our losses with 2-team, 6-point teasers starting with the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football and continuing on Christmas Eve with the Saints, Panthers, Texans, 49ers and Raiders. So, let’s get to the NFL Week 17 schedule, and then – as has become the custom here – we’ll update this column in our daily “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns through the weekend..Dallas Cowboys (-10) at Tennessee Titans
Yes, we know the Titans have lost five straight games and are 0-4-1 ATS during that run. And their No. 30 offense is even worse with QB Ryan Tannehill being out with a right ankle injury and replaced with rookie Malik Willis. This line opened Cowboys -9.5 at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon, but when it crossed the semi-key number of 10, I couldn’t resist taking the Titans. Double-digit underdogs are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) this season, but are actually perfect at 4-0 ATS when they’re at home: Panthers +13 vs. Buccaneers in Week 7, Texans +14 vs. Eagles in Week 9 (also on Thursday Night Football), Jets +10.5 vs. Bills in Week 9 and Texans 14 vs. Chiefs in Week 15. With the move to Cowboys -12 at most books on Wednesday (as high as 13 at the Westgate), I like it even more.
Best Bet: Titans +12 (pool play: Titans in my rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Cowboys in all my SU pools).
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
When it was announced that the Panthers (6-9) still controlled their own destiny in the NFC South, a lot of people chuckled, but no one is laughing now as they’re within a game of the Buccaneers (7-8) and go for the season sweep on Sunday. The Panthers dominated the Lions on both sides of the ball in their 37-23 win on Christmas Eve as they ran for a team-record 320 rushing yards and Sam Darnold added 250 passing yards and a TD. Carolina is 4-2 in its last six games and 5-1 ATS. Tom Brady pulled another Houdini act in rallying the Buccaneers to a 19-16 OT on Christmas night to stay atop the division. The Bucs’ No. 6-ranked defense continues to keep them in games and rely on Brady to work his late-game magic. That didn’t work in the first meeting in Week 7 as the Panthers shut down the Bucs until allowing a field goal with 9:33 left in the game on the way to a 21-3 victory. I love getting points with a team that has already shown they can beat the other team.
Best Bet: Panthers +3 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contest – lower at 2.5 – but Buccaneers 60/40 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-2.5)
The Commanders (7-7-1) are trying to hold onto the last NFC wild-card spot in the middle of a QB controversy. After not playing since Week 6, Carson Wentz replaced an ineffective Taylor Heinicke and went 12-for-16 for 123 yards and a TD in the loss at the 49ers last Saturday. This line isn’t expected to move much regardless of who Ron Rivera names as the starter. The Browns (6-9) are 2-2 SU and ATS since Deshaun Watson took over after his suspension, but they’re playing good enough to stay within one score (in fact, they’ve lost by more than 8 points just twice all season), so we’ll use them in our teaser portfolio. In Sunday’s early games, the best 2-team, 6-point teaser is Browns +8.5/Dolphins +8.5 and we’ll also use with Seahawks +8 in the afternoon and the Bengals +7.5 on Monday Night Football (if you like teasing favorites down below a field goal, you can also look at Eagles -1, Lions pick-’em, 49ers pick-’em or Chargers -0.5).
Best Bet: Browns +8.5/Dolphins +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
The Saints (6-9) still have a prayer in the NFC South, but must win their last two games (at Eagles and vs. Panthers) and also have the Buccaneers lose their last two games (vs. Panthers and at Falcons) due to being swept by Tampa Bay this season. Since losing that second meeting in 17-16 vs. the Bucs, the Saints have won two in a row over the Falcons and Browns. Their No. 9 defense is the main reason the Saints have any chance as they’ve allowed an average of 15.6 points per game in their last eight games. The offense used backup QB Taysom Hill (56 rushing yards and a TD) more in the backfield with Alvin Kamara (76 yards, 1 TD) in the frigid conditions in Cleveland last Sunday as Andy Dalton wasn’t asked to do much. With Jalen Hurts sidelined, the Eagles (13-2) still need one more win to clinch the NFC East and also the NFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye. Gardner Minshew (24-for-40, 355 yards, 2 TDs) was more than serviceable in the 40-34 loss at the Cowboys o n Christmas Eve, but did throw 2 INTS and fumbled twice, losing one. But it was the Eagles’ No. 2 defense that let them down the most, allowing 419 yards and squandering a 27-17 third-quarter lead. The Saints defense' fares better against pocket passers like Gardner Minshew and will continue to try to grind out wins with their QB-by-committee, or at least stay within the spread.
Best Bet: Saints +7 (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower if only offered 6.5 – but Eagles still 70/30 in SU pools).
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)