Wednesday was a day full of work meetings and following the World Cup.
The highlight of the day was attending my son Maddux’s first concert with the Las Vegas Youth Orchestra, an all-star team of the city’s top young musicians. The second-best part of my day was winning our Best Bet of the day on the Pistons +3 at Hornets. The Pistons, who entered the night with the NBA’s worst record, entered the fourth quarter with a 10-point and were taken to overtime. That’s usually where Under and short dogs go to die, right, but the Pistons re-rallied and won 141-134 to improve our record to 30-17-1 ATS (63.8%) with our daily top play here in these columns since Oct. 27. Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday's betting action and then look for another Best Bet on Thursday (note: I’m actually passing on the Thursday Night Football game as I don’t feel I’m getting enough points with the Seahawks vs. the 49ers). Then, as has become our custom here, I’ll rerun my Wednesday column in which I give my “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule.Wednesday Recaps
NBA: Underdog went 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS with upsets by Kings (+5 at Raptors), Pistons (+4.5 at Hornets), Knicks (+3.5 at Bulls), Magic (+3 vs. Hawks), Cavaliers (+2.5 at Mavericks) and Pacers (+1.5 vs. Warriors). The Thunder (+2.5) covered in 110-108 loss vs. Heat. Road teams went 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS. Overs 7-3.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 271-145 SU with 7 pick-’ems, but dogs improved slim lead to 207-195-14 ATS (51.5%). Home teams lead 262-161 SU and 219-190-14 ATS (53.5%). In totals wagering, Overs retook lead at 211-207-5 (50.5%).
CBB: No. 16 UCLA beat No. 20 Maryland 87-60 on Wednesday night, but it was an upset as the Bruins were 2-point road underdogs. The game went Over the betting total of 141.5 points.
Soccer: France beat Morocco 2-0 Wednesday in the World Cup semifinals and will face Argentina in Sunday’s championship match. France was a -180 favorite in 3-way betting and also won and covered as a 1-goal favorite. In totals wagering, the game pushed on 2 goals, though some books offered Under 2.5 goals at heavy juice and that cashed.
NHL: Faves went 2-1 with an upset by the Canucks (160 in 4-3 win at Flames). The Senators (-215 vs. Canadiens) and Wild (-255 vs. Red Wings) won as chalk. Home teams went 2-1. Unders led 2-1. On the season, faves lead 275-180 with 12 pick-’ems. Home teams lead 242-221 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 227-223-17.
Thursday Best Bet
Jazz +2 vs. Pelicans: After cashing with the lowly Pistons last night, let’s now back the Jazz – a team that has been exceeding expectations all season – as a short home dog vs. the Pelicans. This is actually an anti-swagger play against the Pelicans, who just had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday night in a 121-100 rout by these same Jazz (who improved to 5-0 ATS as a home dog this season) but are still 2-point road favorites in the rematch.
Here's the rerun of our full breakdown of NFL Week 15. Updates are in as we track our plays through the weekend: Welcome to our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule. We went 3-2 ATS with our top plays in Week 14, though we lost our top teasers on the Vikings +8.5/Ravens +7.5 and then lost a Cardinals +7.5/Under 50 teaser on Monday Night Football to wrap up last week/start this calendar week. Still, we’re having a great football season thanks to underdogs still barking at 108-90-6 ATS (54.5%) while our pet plays of home dogs are 43-31-4 ATS (58.1%) while double-digit dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). In addition, we’re been stressing to our readers/followers to listen to our regular appearances on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights or 15 minutes into the archived version) as, even with the losing Cardinals/Under teaser, we’re still 29-14 ATS (67.4%) since the start of the season (the majority of which have been early NFL plays) and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) since the start of November (all of which have been on the NFL). Per usual, even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, we add our “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to pick every game. At the end, we’ll add our regularly scheduled recaps of Tuesday’s betting action (note: we won our Best Bet on the Golden Knights +110 in their 6-5 win at the Jets) and look for a Best Bet for Wednesday.San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
It’s tempting to take a home underdogs on Thursday Night Football with the road team obviously facing the obstacle of a short week, but those TNF dogs are 2-3 ATS this season (though one of the losses was the Rams in the season-opener when neither team was facing a short week. Besides, this line seems short at just over a field goal. The 49ers’ bandwagon is filling up even with third-string Brock “Mr. Irrelevant” Purdy taking over at QB and losing WR Deebo Samuel, though he’s now expected to return before the end of the regular season. I just can’t pull the trigger on a Seattle team that has certainly come down to earth after their surprisingly strong start. Besides, the 49ers’ dominated the Seahawks 27-7 on both sides of the ball back in Week 2 and I don’t see this being any different with the 49ers having the No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game and the Seahawks ranking No, 28.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers in all my rare pools that include Thursday Night Football).
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
This is first in the official Nevada rotation on Saturday, but is actually the middle game at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT. It might surprise some people to see the Browns – who haven’t been too impressive since the return of Deshaun Watson – actually favored here, but the Ravens have their own QB problems with Lamar Jackson still expected to be out this week and Tyler Huntley in concussion protocol.. Will he be cleared to play by Saturday, or will undrafted rookie Anthony Brown (Oregon) get his first start? I’m likely to be on the Ravens as a short dog in some way like they were last week at Pittsburgh (possibly in teasers?), but I want to get more information on the QB situation. Please check my updated column later in the week.
Best Bet: Ravens TBD (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – lower if only offered +2.5 – and around 55/50 in SU pools, though that could flip if Brown starts for Ravens).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
This is the Saturday opener at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT. This is another case where I just don’t feel I’m getting enough points with the underdog. The Colts are playing better since Jeff Saturday took over as interim coach, but they’ve still lost their last three games after he won his debut against the Raiders. The Vikings now have the league’s worst defense at 40.3.7 yards allowed per game (after averaging a whopping 453 yards per game given up in the last three games), but I don’t trust the Colts to take advantage.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Saturday nightcap lost some of its luster with the Dolphins’ Week 14 loss to the Chargers as they fell two games behind the Bills in the AFC East. But it’s still an important Week 15 game as the Bills (10-3) are trying to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye while the Dolphins (8-5) are currently in the thick of the wild-card chase with a one-game lead over four 7-6 teams trying for the last two spots. The Dolphins were tied with the Bills before their current two-game losing streak and still have a chance to catch them with a win here as they would hold the tiebreaker with a season sweep as they beat them 21-19 back in Week 3 in Miami. That fact does make it appear the current 7.5-point spread is too high, especially since they’re only 6-7 ATS on the season (they’ve been favored in every game) and recently failed to cover in wins over the Lions on Thanksgiving and Jets last Sunday. Even though they’re No. 2 in yards per game and No. 9 in yards allowed per game, they tend to let teams stick around and the Dolphins have the weapons to keep up with the Bills again.
Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 (pool play: Dolphins 70/30 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
If you took a preseason poll asking which of these teams in this Week 15 matchup would be one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South, not many would have picked the Falcons (5-8), but they’re a full game ahead of the Saints (4-8). The Falcons had a chance to pass the Bucs and actually be leading the division but have lost two straight and four of five. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is now replacing Marcus Mariota and making his first NFL start against the Saints’ No. 11 defense. The Saints were actually 5.5-point road favorites when they beat the Falcons 27-26 (but did not cover) way back in the season opener but have won only three games since. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS while the Falcons are 7-6 ATS (but that’s after a 6-0 ATS start, so they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven games). It’s tempting to take the Falcons as dogs in the rematch. While the Falcons made the move at QB to address the offense, but I’m not getting enough points with a rook ie QB against a pretty solid defense (Saints rank No. 11 in yards allowed per game), plus the Falcons have the No. 30 defense.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1)