Tuley: Thursday Best Bet, updated 'takes' on full NFL Week 13 schedule

Wednesday was an interesting hump day as we had plenty of sports betting action even without any football as we have World Cup futbol, NBA and college basketball, plus some for good measure.

Unfortunately, I lost my Best Bet of the day on the Clippers +6.5 at the Jazz as they lost 125-112, but we can’t complain too much as we finished the month at 20-10 ATS (66.7%) with our daily Best Bets here in these columns, including 16-7 ATS (69.5%) that last 23 days.

I’d like to ask a favor of our regular reader: please vote for me Thursday in The 4th Annual @VSiNLive People’s Broadcast Excellence Golden Mic Awards (aka #TheMitchys2022) hosted by @beatpeatmoss, a popular parody account on Twitter and a huge fan of VSiN. I’m slated to be in the “Most Trusted Advisor” category and competition is expected to be stiff with all the popular guests that appear on our network. I’m at a disadvantage as I won’t be on the air Thursday like some of the other nominees, so that’s why I’m stumping for votes here and hope you’ll vote if you’ve enjoyed the advice shared here this season.

OK, let’s get back to our regularly scheduled column and recap Wednesday’s betting action and then look for a Best Bet on Thursday. I’m not making a bet on the Bills-Patriots game on Thursday Night Football – hey, my mantra is “dog-or-pass,” so we don’t force plays and believe passing on games is an important part of being a disciplined winning sports bettor. And, then, as has become our custom here, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on every game on the NFL Week 13 schedule. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a particular game, we give our “pool play” strategy, especially for those that are in contests where you do have to pick every game. We always love to hear from readers that we help win contests and pools during the course of the season.

Wednesday’s Recaps

NBA: Faves dominated at 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS with the only upsets by the Timberwolves (+3 in 109-101 home win vs. Grizzlies) and Pelicans (+2.5 in 126-108 home win vs. Raptors). Home teams also dominated at 11-2 SU. 11-1-1 ATS. The only road team to cover on the night was the Hawks (-6.5 in 125-108 win at Magic). Overs led 8-5.

More NBA: On the season, faves improved to 212-106 SU with 6 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still hold a slim lead at 155-151-12 ATS (50.7%). Home teams also improved to 202-122 SU and 166-146-12 ATS (53.2%) while Overs improved their slim lead to 163-156-5 (51.1%) overall.

CBB: Notre Dame beat No. 20 Michigan State 70-52 in game that closed pick-'em in ACC/Big Ten Challenge. In other ACC/Big Ten games between ranked teams, No. 10 Indiana (-4.5) covered in 77-65 home win vs. No. 18 North Carolina and No. 17 Duke (-5) covered in 81-72 home win vs. No. 25 Ohio State.

NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 with minor upsets by the Sabres (+115 in 5-4 win at Red Wings) and Rangers (-105 in 3-1 win at Senators). Road teams went 3-1. Over/Unders split 2-2. On the season, faves lead 205-148 with 10 PKs, home teams lead 186-173 with 4 neutral-site games and Unders hold slim lead at 178-174-11.

Thursday’s Best Bet

Flyers +1.5 -130 vs. Lightning: This is one of our patented swagger plays as the Flyers broke a 10-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 3-1 win vs. the Islanders as Kevin Hayes scored two goals to give Philly its swagger back. The Flyers were a .500 team before their recent slump and coach John Tortorella will try to get them back the form they showed with a 3-0 start to the season that included a 3-2 road win vs. the Lightning in the only previous meeting this season between the two Eastern Conference teams. Tampa Bay is obviously a tough opponent, so that’s why we’re taking the Flyers on the puck line as our Best Bet, though we’ll also put some on the +190 money line to pull the outright upset.

 

Welcome to the weekly Wednesday version of my “Tuley’s Takes Today” column in which we go over the full NFL Week 13 schedule.

We love to hear from readers that we’ve helped have a successful football season. Last week was another winning one as we started with the Lions and Giants covering on Thanksgiving. Sunday was close to break even as my top plays went 1-3 ATS (losers on the Texans, Bears and Falcons, but a big win on the Raiders) but we swept all of our 2-team, 6-point teasers on the Panthers +8.5, Titans +7.5 and Eagles -1, plus had live teasers to the Steelers +8.5 on Monday Night Football.

Then, in Monday’s version of this column, we added Steelers +8.5/Over 33 for those who hadn’t jumped on the teaser gravy train yet.

That win improved our season-long record on our regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights) to 25-12 ATS (67.6%) and 12-3 ATS (80%) with our November plays, all of which have been NFL early lines for the next week.

Let’s get to the full NFL Week 13 schedule. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, we still offer our “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to make a pick in every game.

Buffalo Bills (-4) at New England Patriots

This is the first meeting this season between these AFC East rivals. The Bills (8-3) are tied for the division lead with the Dolphins while the Patriots (6-5) are a game out of the last AFC wild-card spot. I’ve had a lot of success fading the Bills (just 4-6-1 ATS) this season, including in their two recent losses to the Jets and Vikings and the non-cover at the Lions on Thanksgiving, so it’s tempting to take the Patriots here as home underdogs. However, this line is too short for my liking. I love to have a play on the Thursday night game each week, but I have to pass in this case.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills in all of my rare SU and ATS contests that use TNF games).

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

The Vikings (9-2) continue to roll on in their dream season, but this game means a lot more to the playoff-hopeful Jets (7-4) as the Vikes have opened up a five-game lead in the NFC North on the second-place Lions (yes, you read that right). The Jets have had a roller-coaster of a season as their No. 5 defense helped them win games in spite of starting QB Zach Wilson. Coach Robert Saleh made the move to Mike White (22-for-28, 315 passing yards, 3 TDs) in Week 12 and it paid off in a 31-10 rout of the Bears. It shouldn’t necessarily get harder for White against a Minnesota defense that is No. 31 in yards allowed per game. The Vikings have a good enough offense to overcome the Jets’ defensive strength with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, etc. After suffering just their second loss of the season (a 40-3 no-show vs. the Cowboys in Week 11), they bounced back nicely in their 33-26 win vs. the Patriots on Thanksgiving night. Jets backers were able to grab +3 .5 on Sunday, but the line has settled at  Vikings -3. We no longer like it at that number but would jump back in if it goes back to 3.5 (especially in contests).

Best Bet: Pass for now, waiting for Jets +3.5 (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests – higher at 3.5, flip to Vikings at 2.5 – but Vikings 60/40 in SU pools.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)

We actually jumped the gun a little by giving this out as Broncos +8 on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and in these early week columns as it’s actually been bet up to 8.5 at most books as of this writing early Wednesday morning. But I’m willing to bet this again at the highest number we can get. Granted, the Broncos have been a dumpster fire on offense this season, ranking No. 25 in yards per game despite the off-season acquisition of Russell Wilson while the No. 5 defense has kept them in several games. But this is more of a bet against the Ravens as they’ve led by 9 points or more in every game so far this season; however, they blew their fourth fourth-quarter lead in Sunday’ 28-27 loss to the Jaguars and are just 5-6 ATS as they tend to let teams stick around. Besides, if looking for a common opponent, the Broncos beat the Jaguars 21-17 in Week 8, so we see no reason they can’t stay within a TD of the Ravens.

Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 (pool play: Broncos 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 75/25 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons

We’ve actually seen a change of favorites in this game as the Falcons were -1.5 on the advance line last week at the Westgate SuperBook and -1 when it reopened its Week 13 lines on Sunday afternoon. However, after the Steelers beat the Colts 24-17 on Monday Night Football, this has flipped to the Steelers -1. I’m going to wait to see if the line continues to move in that direction, at which time we’ll probably add it to our teaser portfolio, but I’m going to play the Falcons regardless as short home underdogs. Steelers (4-7) coach Mike Tomlin is trying to avoid his first losing season while the Falcons (5-7) have overachieved all season as they only trail the Buccaneers by half a game in the NFC South and are 7-5 ATS. The Steelers are No. 27 in yards per game while the Falcons are No, 28; however, Falcons have been far more efficient averaging 22.7 points per game compared to just 17.6 for the Steelers with RB/WR Cordarelle Patterson a threat to break off a huge run at any time (5.2 yards per carry) and with Marcus Mariota spreading the ball around to his receivers (or running himself). 

Best Bet: Falcons +1 or higher (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5)

The Eagles continue to roll along with the NFL’s best record at 10-1, but after starting 3-1 ATS, they’ve been middle of the road at 3-3 ATS their last six games – and that includes a cover by half a point after closing as 6.5-point home favorites in a 40-33 win vs. the Packers on Sunday night. They’ve failed to cover in wins over the Lions, Cardinals, Texas and Colts in addition to their upset loss to the Commanders in Week 10, so I have no problem fading them against the Titans, who continue to get disrespected in the betting market despite overcoming an 0-2 start to stand at 7-4 SU and an even more impressive 8-3 ATS. And that includes losing 20-16 to the Bengals this past Sunday. Derrick Henry continues to set the tone as he’s second in the NFL with 1,048 rushing yards to make things easier for Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passes. I also trust Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel to have a scheme to contain Philly QB Jalen Hurts and keep the Titans i n a one-score game if not pull the outright upset.

  
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