Saturday was an incredibly action-packed day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had 3 NFL games and 7 college bowl games in addition to an otherwise already loaded mid-December Saturday of pro and college basketball and NHL hockey among other sports.
It looked like the bowls would steal the headlines on the day as the Colts jumped out to a 17-0 against the Vikings and extended that to 33-0 at halftime. I used most of the game to wrap up putting in plays for my proxy clients in the football contests here in Vegas, but then when I tuned back in the Vikings had just pulled with 36-21 and I watched the rest of the greatest comeback in NFL history (see details below in our recaps). I was kicking myself that I had passed on betting the underdog Colts, but I did hit my Best Bet of the day for the 5th day in a row on the Dolphins +7 and +7.5 against the Bills as they covered in another wild finish as the Bills prevailed 32-29 but we got the cash. That improved our record to 33-17-1 ATS (66%) with our daily top play the last 51 days. I also mentioned my Dolphins play on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights) after the lines opened for this week, but it wasn’t included as one of my official picks since it was off the board at most books due to the Dolphins playing last Sunday night, but me and my followers now it was another winner. As it was, we also improved to 30-14 ATS (68.2%) with my plays on the show since the start of the season and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) since the start of November as my lone CFB bowl play also cashed on BYU +1.5 vs. SMU in the Cougars 24-23 victory in the New Mexico Bowl. That was the line when we went on the show last Sunday night, then the line went as high as SMU -5 and closed at 4.5, which is where we gave out BYU again in Saturday’s column. The whole world was seemingly on SMU as BYU had more opt-outs including playing without starting QB Jaren Hall, but I stuck with the Cougars stating that “I’ve had a lot of winners over the years with backup QBs being able to jump in and have success in a successful offensive system (as the market typically overadjusts in these situations)” and that worked once again. I also spent more time following the going-ons in the football contests here in town, so check out my weekly “Circa contest update” VSiN.com update https://www.vsin.com/nfl/circa-contest-update-for-nfl-week-15/ as we give the top consensus and leader plays in Circa Sports Million and update Circa Survivor with 30 still alive for the $6.133 million prize pool (spoiler alert: 4 survived and advance with the Vikings!). Let’s recap the rest of Saturday's betting action and then list our Best Bets for Sunday against the current lines before rerunning our complete Wednesday column and updating our “takes” on the rest of the NFL Week 15 schedule.Saturday Recaps
NFL: Bills re-rallied to beat Dolphins 32-29 on Tyler Bass’s 25-yard FG as time expired. The ViewFromVegas is they did NOT cover as 7-point home favorites. The game flew Over the betting total of 45 points. Faves went 3-0 SU on Saturday but dogs led 2-1 ATS. Home teams also went 3-0 SU but road teams led 2-1 ATS. Overs led 2-1.
More NFL: On the season, faves lead 134-72-2 SU with 4 pick-'ems, but dogs improved to 110-92-6 ATS (54.5%). Home teams lead 114-90-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 102-98-6 ATS (51%). Unders still lead 116-94-2 (55.2%) while primetime Unders dipped to 25-19-1 (56.8%).
Even more NFL (earlier games): Vikings beat Colts 39-36 on Greg Joseph's 40-yard FG with :03 left in OT to complete the biggest comeback in NFL history after trailing 33-0. They were 30-1 in-game but didn't cover as 3.5-point home faves. The game flew Over 47. The Browns beat the Ravens 13-3 in the middle game on Saturday and also covered after closing as 3-point home favorites. This game stayed way Under the low total of 39 points.
CFB: Faves went 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in Saturday’s bowl games with Boise State (-12.5) failing to cover in 35-32 win in Frisco Bowl. The outright upsets were by NC Central (+14, +450 ML in 42-34 OT win vs. Jackson State in the Celebration Bowl) and BYU (+4.5 in 24-23 win vs. SMU in the New Mexico Bowl). Unders led 4-3.
More CFB: Faves are 6-3 SU after the first 2 days of bowls (including Celebration Bowl, which some people don't count but it was on the main betting board, so we do); however, dogs lead 5-4 ATS with Miami-Ohio and North Texas covering in SU losses. Under lead 6-3.
CBB: No. 5 Houston (-2.5) beat No. 2 Virginia 69-61 but it wasn't an upset. No. 15 Gonzaga (+1) upset No. 4 Alabama 100-90. No. 9 Arizona (-4) beat No. 6 Tennessee 75-70. No. 16 UCLA (-2) beat No. 13 Kentucky 63-53. No. 8 Kansas (-5) beat No. 14 Indiana 84-62.
NBA: Faves went 6-1 SU on Saturday and 5-2 ATS as the Mavericks (+8.5) covered in 100-99 loss at Cavaliers. The lone upset was by the Thunder (+11) in 115-109 win vs. Grizzlies. Home teams went 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS. Unders led 6-1 with the lone Over (227.5) in Suns' 118-114 win vs. Pelicans.
More NBA: On the season, faves improved to 285-152 SU with 7 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 216-206-15 ATS (51.2%). Home teams lead 273-171 SU and 228-201-15 ATS (53.1%). In totals wagering, Overs' slim lead is back down to 220-219-5 (50.1%).
NHL: Faves went 8-4 with Red Wings-Senators closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by the Ducks (+260 at Oilers) and Islanders (+151 at Golden Knights). Road teams went 8-5. Overs led 7-6. On the season, faves lead 289-192 with 14 PKs. Home teams lead 253-238 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 244-234-17.
Sunday Best Bets
Texans +14.5 vs. Chiefs: This is our Best Bet of the Day (the big hint is to always check out the photo at the top of my column) with the move over 2 TDs. More details in the writeups below.
Falcons-Saints Over 43.5 Lions +7.5/Titans +9 (2-team, 6-point teaser) Giants +4.5 at Commanders Monday: Rams +7 at Packers Here's the rerun of our full breakdown of NFL Week 15. Updates are in as we track our plays through the weekend: Welcome to our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 15 schedule. We went 3-2 ATS with our top plays in Week 14 (wins on Jets, Panthers and Broncos, but losses on Giants and Buccaneers), though we lost our top teasers on the Vikings +8.5/Ravens +7.5 and then lost a Cardinals +7.5/Under 50 teaser on Monday Night Football to wrap up last week/start this calendar week. Still, we’re having a great football season thanks to underdogs still barking at 108-90-6 ATS (54.5%) while our pet plays of home dogs are 43-31-4 ATS (58.1%) while double-digit dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). In addition, we’re been stressing to our readers/followers to listen to our regular appearances on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. Sunday nights or 15 minutes into the archived version) as, even with the losing Cardinals/Under teaser, we’re still 29-14 ATS (67.4%) since the start of the season (the majority of which have been early NFL plays) and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) since the start of November (all of which have been on the NFL). Per usual, even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, we add our “pool play” strategy, especially for those in contests where you have to pick every game.San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
It’s tempting to take a home underdog on Thursday Night Football with the road team obviously facing the obstacle of a short week, but those TNF dogs are only 2-3 ATS this season (though one of the losses was the Rams in the season-opener when neither team was facing a short week). Besides, this line seems short at just over a field goal. The 49ers’ bandwagon is filling up even with third-string Brock “Mr. Irrelevant” Purdy taking over at QB and losing WR Deebo Samuel, though he’s now expected to return before the end of the regular season. I just can’t pull the trigger on a Seattle team that has certainly come down to earth after their surprisingly strong start. Besides, the 49ers’ dominated the Seahawks 27-7 on both sides of the ball back in Week 2 and I don’t see this being any different with the 49ers having the No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game and the Seahawks ranking No, 28.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers in all my rare pools that include Thursday Night Football).
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
This is first in the official Nevada rotation on Saturday, but is actually the middle game at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT. It might surprise some people to see the Browns – who haven’t been too impressive since the return of Deshaun Watson – actually favored here, but the Ravens have their own QB problems with Lamar Jackson still expected to be out this week and Tyler Huntley in concussion protocol.. Will he be cleared to play by Saturday, or will undrafted rookie Anthony Brown (Oregon) get his first start? I’m likely to be on the Ravens as a short dog in some way like they were last week at Pittsburgh (possibly in teasers?), but I want to get more information on the QB situation. Please check my updated column later in the week.
Best Bet: Ravens in teasers (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests – lower if only offered +2.5 – and around 55/50 in SU pools, though that could flip if Brown starts for Ravens).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
This is the Saturday opener at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT. This is another case where I just don’t feel I’m getting enough points with the underdog. The Colts are playing better since Jeff Saturday took over as interim coach, but they’ve still lost their last three games after he won his debut against the Raiders. The Vikings now have the league’s worst defense at 40.3.7 yards allowed per game (after averaging a whopping 453 yards per game given up in the last three games), but I don’t trust the Colts to take advantage.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Saturday nightcap lost some of its luster with the Dolphins’ Week 14 loss to the Chargers as they fell two games behind the Bills in the AFC East. But it’s still an important Week 15 game as the Bills (10-3) are trying to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye while the Dolphins (8-5) are currently in the thick of the wild-card chase with a one-game lead over four 7-6 teams trying for the last two spots. The Dolphins were tied with the Bills before their current two-game losing streak and still have a chance to catch them with a win here as they would hold the tiebreaker with a season sweep as they beat them 21-19 back in Week 3 in Miami. That fact does make it appear the current 7.5-point spread is too high, especially since they’re only 6-7 ATS on the season (they’ve been favored in every game) and recently failed to cover in wins over the Lions on Thanksgiving and Jets last Sunday. Even though they’re No. 2 in yards per game and No. 9 in yards allowed per game, they tend to let teams stick around and the Dolphins have the weapons to keep up with the Bills again.
Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 (pool play: Dolphins 70/30 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
If you took a preseason poll asking which of these teams in this Week 15 matchup would be one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South, not many would have picked the Falcons (5-8), but they’re a full game ahead of the Saints (4-8). The Falcons had a chance to pass the Bucs and actually be leading the division but have lost two straight and four of five. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is now replacing Marcus Mariota and making his first NFL start against the Saints’ No. 11 defense. The Saints were actually 5.5-point road favorites when they beat the Falcons 27-26 (but did not cover) way back in the season opener but have won only three games since. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS while the Falcons are 7-6 ATS (but that’s after a 6-0 ATS start, so they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven games). It’s tempting to take the Falcons as dogs in the rematch. While the Falcons made the move at QB to address the offense, but I’m not getting enough points with a rook ie QB against a pretty solid defense (Saints rank No. 11 in yards allowed per game), plus the Falcons have the No. 30 defense.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 70/30 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1)