NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Saturday was an incredibly busy day as we stayed in the Tuley’s Takes home office to watch the NFL Week 16 schedule on Christmas Eve.
In addition to following all the action on the playing fields – both as a reporter and an active bettor – I also was following my other (but related) beat on the high-end handicapping contests here in Las Vegas. Circa Survivor was incredibly exciting as it looked like it might end with a single winner of the $6.133 million prize pool by the end of the day. As it turned out, four entries are alive and have to submit their next play on Sunday morning for the Sunday/Monday games of what they’re calling Week 16b (aka “Christmas Week”). Check out my “Circa contest update” story at VSiN.com for more details as well as a further update after the four Survivors have their selections announced after 9 a.m. PT Sunday morning. As for my own action on Saturday, I lost my Best Bet on the Bears +8.5 vs. the Bills as they were with the spread at 21-13 well into the fourth quarter before the Bills pulled away for a 35-13 victory.. That dropped our record to 36-20-2 ATS (64.3%) with our daily top play the last 58 days. We also lost other ATS plays on the Patriots +3, Falcons +7.5 and Eagles +4.5 while only winning with the Texans +5 (closed +3). However, we did clean up on our teaser portfolio to cut our losses as our top posted 2-team, 6-point teaser on Saints +9/Panthers +8.5 easily cashed as both won outright. We also won our Jaguars +8.5/Under 43 teaser from Thursday Night Football as well as other teasers using the Texans +9, 49ers -1 and Raiders +8.5. The Falcons’ loss also dropped our record of our Sunday night picks on “The Greg Peterson Experience” to 31-16 ATS (66%) since the start of football season and 18-7 ATS (72%) since the start of November. We certainly can’t complain about the football season we’ve had. Let’s get to our usual daily recaps of Saturday’s betting action and then rerun our breakdown of the rest of the NFL Week 16 schedule, including our Best Bet for Sunday’s holiday tripleheader and our “takes” on the remaining games on the weekend.Saturday Recaps
NFL: Steelers rallied to beat Raiders 13-10 on Saturday Night Football as they ended up covering as 2-point home favorites (game stayed Under the betting total of 37.5 points). On the day, faves went 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS while home teams went 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS and Unders led 6-5.
More NFL: On the season, faves improved to 150-80-2 SU with 4 pick-'ems, but dogs still lead 122-103-7 ATS (54.2%). Home teams improved to 127-101-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 114-110-6 ATS (50.9%). Unders lead 129-105-2 (55.1%) with primetime Unders improving to 29-19-1 (60.4%).
Even more NFL: Faves went 5-3 SU in Saturday’s early games, but split 4-4 ATS with the Giants (+4.5) covering in their 27-24 loss at the Vikings. The upsets were by the Saints (+3 at Browns), Texans (+3 at Titans) and Panthers (+2 vs. Lions). Home/road teams split 4-4 SU but road teams led 5-3 ATS. Unders led 5-3. In the afternoon window, faves (& home teams) went 2-0 SU and ATS with the 49ers (-6.5) covering in 37-20 win vs. the Commanders and Cowboys (-4) covering in 40-34 win vs. the Eagles. Overs swept 2-0.