Friday was spent recovering from Thanksgiving and enjoying another loaded day of sports betting action.
Whether you like football or futbol or basketball or hockey, there was plenty of action to go around (see our recaps below). Unfortunately, it wasn’t as profitable here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as most days have been this month as we lost our Best Bet on Wyoming +15 at Fresno State in a 30-0 rout. We also lost our top NHL play on the Sabres, though our suggested plays for chalk bettors did come through with Lightning -170 and the Celtics -8. In VSiN’s BetsGiving contest, we did win with our Friday pick on USA-England Under 2.5 as that was the easiest winner of the day as they played to a 0-0 tie. We should have made that our Best Bet here!!! Anyway, despite the Wyoming loss, our daily Best Bets are 18-7 ATS (72%) the first 25 days of November, including 14-4 ATS (77.8%) the last 18 days. Let’s get to those recaps, and then give our Best Bets for Saturday’s college football action. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll rerun and update our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 12 schedule.Friday’s Recaps
CBB: Iowa State upset No. 1 North Carolina 70-65 as 5.5-point underdog in the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland and No. 22 Tennessee covered as 1.5-point favorite in 64-50 win vs. No. 3 Kansas (so it wasn’t an upset) in the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis in Nassau, Bahamas. No. 24 Purdue upset No. 6 Gonzaga 84-66 as a 6.5-point dog late Friday in the Phil Knight Legacy in Portland. No. 20 UConn upset No. 18 Alabama 82-67 as a 1.5-point dog in the Phil Knight Invitational.
CFB: No. 19 Tulane re-rallied to beat No. 24 Cincinnati 27-24 and covered as 1-point road favorite (went Over betting total of 44 points). North Carolina State upset No. 17 North Carolina 30-27 in 2OT as 6.5-point road underdog and +200 on the money line.
NBA: Faves went 8-6 SU on Friday, but dogs led 7-6-1 ATS with the Heat (-3) pushing in 110-107 win vs. Wizards. The biggest upsets were by the Rockets (+7 vs. Hawks) and Hornets (+6 vs. Timberwolves). The Pistons (+12.5) covered in 108-102 loss at the Suns. Home teams went 10-4 SU and 8-5-1 ATS. Overs 8-6.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 185-95 SU with 5 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 141-128-11 ATS (52.4%). Home teams lead 176-109 SU and 143-131-11 ATS (52.2%). Overs increased slim lead to 142-138-5 (50.7%) overall .
NHL: Faves went 8-5 with the biggest upsets by the Kraken (+168 in 4-2 win at Golden Knights) and Jets (+147 in 5-4 OT win at Stars). Road teams went 9-4 while Unders led 8-5. On the season, faves lead 188-135 with 8 pick-’ems. Home teams lead 174-153 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders took lead in totals wagering at 162-160-9.
Saturday’s Best Bets
Notre Dame +4.5 at USC: The Trojans are trying to get to the CFB Playoff, but Notre Dame is a formidable foe as the Irish started 0-2 (including an embarrassing 26-21 loss vs. Marshall) but has gone 8-1 since, including a 35-14 upset of Clemson to knock the Tigers from the playoff race. I like this play so much that I took the Irish +165 on the money line in the BetsGiving contest instead of just taking the points, but we’ll use the spread for our record-keeping purposes here.
Minnesota +3 at Wisconsin: Wisconsin (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) is not as good as we’re used to seeing, so we really think the Badgers are only favored due to their reputation of playing well at home. .This should be a close game, so we really believe the points could come into play (especially if you can get +3.5, which was available at Circa Sports here in Las Vegas and other books).
Louisville +3 at Kentucky: Earlier this year, this line would have been a lot higher, but Louisville (7-4 SU and ATS) has only lost to Clemson since a 2-3 start while Kentucky (6-5, 7-4 ATS) started the season 4-0 but has lost two straight to Vanderbilt and Georgia and 2-5 in its last seven games.
Coastal Carolina +14 at James Madison: James Madison (7-3) has been one of this season’s Cinderella stories and hosts former Cinderella Coast Carolina This line is out of whack due to Coastal Carolina (9-1) supposedly losing QB Grayson McCall for the rest of the regular season with a foot injury. However, backup CJ. Beasley led the Chanticleers to a 26-23 win over Southern Miss, though it would have been nice to see another start for Beasley except CC’s game vs. Virginia was canceled last week due to the tragic shooting that killed three players. I’ve had success over the years with backup QBs and inflated lines, so I’ll take the two-TD head-start.
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday “Tuley’s Takes Today” column in which we break down the full NFL schedule. We’re coming off another winning NFL week as we won with the Titans last Thursday and the Panthers, Lions and Raiders on Sunday as well as hitting our top teaser. However, we did lose with the Cardinals on Monday Night Football to end on a sour note, but we’re back for more in NFL Week 12, starting with the Thanksgiving tripleheader on Thursday. We’ve also been hot with our daily top picks as we won with Ball State +3 in a 18-17 loss to Miami-Ohio in Tuesday night MACtion. That improved our daily Best Bets to 16-6 ATS (72.7%) the first 22 days of November, including 12-3 ATS (80%) the last 15 days. But let’s get to what everyone is here for on Wednesday. Even if I don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll still give my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game. Buffalo Bills (-10 -105) at Detroit LionsThe Bills were the Super Bowl favorites for a long time with most people saying they had the best overall team. They even ranked No. 1 in total offense and total defense earlier this season, but while they’re still No. 2 in total offense at 417.4 yards per game, the defense only ranks No. 13 as the Bills have mostly been letting teams stick around. In fact, in addition to losing two straight games earlier this month to the Jets and Vikings, the Bills’ last five games have all been one-score games. And now they face the poster child for covering as underdog: the Lions were 11-6 ATS last season despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 6-4 ATS this year, including three straight upsets of the Packers, Bears and Giants. We gave this out at +10 at DraftKings on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and still love the play as double-digit dogs are 10-4 ATS so far this season.
Best Bet: Lions +10 (pool play: Lions in all my rare ATS contests that use Thanksgiving Day games while Bills in all my SU pools).
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
This is a tough choice because I usually love anytime I’m getting an NFL underdog of more than a touchdown, especially one with a winning record like the Giants (7-3). However, as we’ve written many times this season, the Giants have kind of been doing it with mirrors as they're a rather mediocre No. 19 in yards per game and No. 17 in yards allowed per game. The Cowboys won the earlier meeting 23-16 at the Meadowlands, but that was with Cooper Rush at QB and when the Giants were playing better, so I have to pass for now. Check out my Thursday column as I might end up taking the Giants if this gets to double digits.
Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Giants 55/45 on principle in ATS contests, but Cowboys in all my SU pools).
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 -115)
This is another game where I’ve gone back and forth on how to play it. At +3, the Patriots were tempting and are still very teasable up to +8.5 with the line at 2.5. The Vikings certainly look more vulnerable than they did a week ago after getting absolutely dominated by the Cowboys in a 40-3 rout. The Patriots’ defense – ranked No. 4 in yards allowed per game compared to the Cowboys at No. 8 – is capable of containing Kirk Cousins, who usually struggles in primetime games. However, the Vikings should be able to bounce back from that blowout loss and I’m not sure the Patriots’ offense will be able to match them score for score. This comes down to me just feeling more confident in the teaser plays on Sunday.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Here’s another case where I don’t feel like I’m getting enough points to back the underdog (note: I’ve had a lot of success this season by passing on lines that seemed too short). I mean, this is the Jaguars and they’re only getting 4 points vs. the Ravens? Does anyone give Jacksonville any points for home-field advantage? I just can’t pull the trigger.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have covered their last two games (a 25-15 upset vs. the Falcons in the Week 10 Thursday nighter and covering as 13-point dogs at the Ravens in a 13-3 loss) and four of their last five games. However, we have another short home dog here, but at least the Panthers are playable in 2-team, 6-point teasers, so this is a good spot to go over our teaser portfolio for the week as we’ve been killing it with these lately. In Sunday’s early games, we want to tease the Panthers up to 8.5 along with the Titans teased up from +1.5 vs. the Bengals up to +7.5. We’ll also start teasers to the Sunday and Monday night games with the Eagles -1 vs. the Packers and Steelers +8.5 at the Colts.
Best Bet: Panthers +8.5/Titans +7.5 plus other teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Broncos 60/40 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4)
Believe it or not, this is an important game in the NFC playoff picture with both in the wild-card chase while the Falcons (5-6) are still trying to keep up with the Buccaneers (5-5) in the NFC South. The Commanders (6-5, 6-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-10 win at the Texans last week as they’re still riding high after their 32-21 upset of the previously undefeated Eagles as 11-point road underdogs on Monday Night Football in Week 10. Taylor Heinicke has held onto the starting QB job by leading Washington to a 4-1 record in Carson Wentz’s absence, including other upsets of the Packers and Colts. The Falcons have arguably been overachieving even more this season as they covered the spread in their first six games and covered after closing as 2-point home favorites in a hard-fought 27-24 win vs. the Bears this past Sunday, though earlier bettors pushed on +/- 3. This is another game where I might end up on the Falcons eventually, but my first impression is that this li ne has been shaded just a tad too low.