NFL Week 17 Best Bets
Friday was a great day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office with wall-to-wall college football as we head toward the rest of NFL Week 17.
I also took the family to our annual New Year’s Eve visit to Opportunity Village since it might raise on Saturday night. For those who don’t know, Opportunity Village is a charity that helps physically an mentally disabled kids and adults. It famously made the scarves that Elvis Presley used to give out at his concerts in the 1970s and was the charity of choice for magician Penn Jillette when he was on “Celebrity Apprentice” (and helped a friend of mine get a job about a dozen years ago). It also has a sports betting connection as famed gambler Billy Walters – before he did his interview last February with VSiN – appeared on “60 Minutes” in January 2011 but only under the condition that he could give publicity to Opportunity Village. This year, Walters is matching the entry fees to OP’s Magical Forest (which is a bunch of decorated Christmas trees from businesses across the Las Vegas Valley to also raise money for the charity ) up to $1 million. As for our more selfish fund-raising for me and our followers, we hit Friday’s Best Bet on Pittsburgh +8 vs. UCLA in the Sun Bowl as the Panthers pulled out the 37-35 outright upset. That improved our bowl game Best Bet record to 4-0-1 ATS and also our 39-23-2 ATS (62.9%) mark with our daily top play the last 64 days (nine-plus weeks). We also split our NBA plays with a win on the Pelicans vs. the 76ers as they were bet from 1-point faves to 1-point dogs (thank you very much), but lost on the Pistons +7.5 at the Bulls in a 132-118 loss, though they almost pulled it off as they trailed by only 2 points at halftime and 3 after three quarters before getting run over late. Let’s get the rest of Friday’s betting action in the major sports and then find a Best Bet for Saturday. Unfortunately, I don't have a bowl play for Saturday (if you want my biggest lean, it's Ohio State +6.5 vs. Georgia in the CFB Playoffs, but I don't like the Buckeyes as much as the other dogs that I've built my 4-0-1 ATS record on!). Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll repeat our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 17 schedule. We then add updates in italics based on how the lines are moving.Friday Recaps
CFB: No. 6 Tennessee beat No. 7 Clemson 31-14 in the Orange Bowl. The ViewFromVegas is it was an upset as Tennessee closed as a 4-point underdog (game stayed Under total of 61 points). Bowl dogs went 3-2 SU Friday and 3-1-1 ATS with the push in Ohio (-3) 30-27 OT win vs. Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl. Overs led 3-2.
More CFB: Earlier, Pittsburgh upset No. 18 UCLA 37-35 in Sun Bowl after closing as 9-point underdog and +270 on the money line. Maryland (+2) upset NC State 16-12 in Mayo Bowl (Under 45) and Notre Dame (-5) covered in 45-38 win vs. South Carolina in Gator Bowl (Over 50.5). Overall in bowl season, faves lead 20-14 SU, but dogs improved to 20-13-1 ATS (60.6%). Unders dipped to 20-13-1 (60.6%).
CBB: No. 11 UCLA beat Washington State 67-66, but did NOT cover as 8.5-point road favorite (stayed just Under the betting total of 134 points). Pittsburgh upset No. 25 North Carolina 76-74 as 6-point home dog (went just Over total of 149.5).
NBA: Faves went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS with the Jazz (+3) covering in 126-125 loss at the Kings. The upsets were by the Lakers (+6 in 130-121 win at Hawks), Warriors (+1.5 in 118-112 win vs. Blazers) and Pelicans (+1 in 127-116 win vs. 76ers). Home teams went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Overs led 6-3.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 337-191 SU with 9 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 268-244-16 ATS (52.3%). Home teams lead 331-206 SU and 280-242-15 ATS (53.6%). In totals wagering, Overs continued to improve slim lead to 276-255-6 (52%).
NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 with upsets by the Oilers (+105 in 7-2 rout at Kraken) and Devils (-105 in 4-2 win at Penguins). Road teams went 3-1. Over/Unders split 2-2. On the season, faves lead 326-209 with 16 PKs. Home teams lead 286-261 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 270-259-22.
Saturday NBA Best Bet
Pelicans +6 at Grizzlies: The Pelicans have won 5 straight, but the market hasn’t been respecting them. They were -1 when we gave them out yesterday vs. the 76ers but were bet to dogs (which worked out fine for us). CJ McCollum scored 42 points and Zion Williamson added 36, and we’ll back them again here with the generous points (though grab +6 ASAP as several books down to 5.5 overnight).
Welcome to the weekly Wednesday version of “Tuley’s Takes Today” where we break down the complete NFL Week 17 card with our “takes” on each game, and even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a given matchup, we give our “pool play strategy,” especially for those in contests where they have to make a pick on every game.
After one of our best weeks in NFL Week 15, we had one of our worst in Week 16 as we went 2-5 ATS with our top plays as we had wins on the Texans +3.5 and Cardinals +7.5 but losses on the Bears +8.5, Patriots +3, Falcons +7, Eagles +5.5 and Colts +5. Fortunately, we cut our losses with 2-team, 6-point teasers starting with the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football and continuing on Christmas Eve with the Saints, Panthers, Texans, 49ers and Raiders. So, let’s get to the NFL Week 17 schedule, and then – as has become the custom here – we’ll update this column in our daily “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns through the weekend..Dallas Cowboys (-10) at Tennessee Titans
Yes, we know the Titans have lost five straight games and are 0-4-1 ATS during that run. And their No. 30 offense is even worse with QB Ryan Tannehill being out with a right ankle injury and replaced with rookie Malik Willis. This line opened Cowboys -9.5 at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon, but when it crossed the semi-key number of 10, I couldn’t resist taking the Titans. Double-digit underdogs are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) this season, but are actually perfect at 4-0 ATS when they’re at home: Panthers +13 vs. Buccaneers in Week 7, Texans +14 vs. Eagles in Week 9 (also on Thursday Night Football), Jets +10.5 vs. Bills in Week 9 and Texans 14 vs. Chiefs in Week 15. With the move to Cowboys -12 at most books on Wednesday (as high as 13 at the Westgate), I like it even more.
Best Bet: Titans +12 (pool play: Titans in my rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Cowboys in all my SU pools).
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
When it was announced that the Panthers (6-9) still controlled their own destiny in the NFC South, a lot of people chuckled, but no one is laughing now as they’re within a game of the Buccaneers (7-8) and go for the season sweep on Sunday. The Panthers dominated the Lions on both sides of the ball in their 37-23 win on Christmas Eve as they ran for a team-record 320 rushing yards and Sam Darnold added 250 passing yards and a TD. Carolina is 4-2 in its last six games and 5-1 ATS. Tom Brady pulled another Houdini act in rallying the Buccaneers to a 19-16 OT on Christmas night to stay atop the division. The Bucs’ No. 6-ranked defense continues to keep them in games and rely on Brady to work his late-game magic. That didn’t work in the first meeting in Week 7 as the Panthers shut down the Bucs until allowing a field goal with 9:33 left in the game on the way to a 21-3 victory. I love getting points with a team that has already shown they can beat the other team.
Best Bet: Panthers +3 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contest – lower at 2.5 – but Buccaneers 60/40 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-2.5)
The Commanders (7-7-1) are trying to hold onto the last NFC wild-card spot in the middle of a QB controversy. After not playing since Week 6, Carson Wentz replaced an ineffective Taylor Heinicke and went 12-for-16 for 123 yards and a TD in the loss at the 49ers last Saturday. This line isn’t expected to move much regardless of who Ron Rivera names as the starter. The Browns (6-9) are 2-2 SU and ATS since Deshaun Watson took over after his suspension, but they’re playing good enough to stay within one score (in fact, they’ve lost by more than 8 points just twice all season), so we’ll use them in our teaser portfolio. In Sunday’s early games, the best 2-team, 6-point teaser is Browns +8.5/Dolphins +8.5 and we’ll also use with Seahawks +8 in the afternoon and the Bengals +7.5 on Monday Night Football (if you like teasing favorites down below a field goal, you can also look at Eagles -1, Lions pick-’em, 49ers pick-’em or Chargers -0.5).
Best Bet: Browns +8.5/Dolphins +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
The Saints (6-9) still have a prayer in the NFC South, but must win their last two games (at Eagles and vs. Panthers) and also have the Buccaneers lose their last two games (vs. Panthers and at Falcons) due to being swept by Tampa Bay this season. Since losing that second meeting in 17-16 vs. the Bucs, the Saints have won two in a row over the Falcons and Browns. Their No. 9 defense is the main reason the Saints have any chance as they’ve allowed an average of 15.6 points per game in their last eight games. The offense used backup QB Taysom Hill (56 rushing yards and a TD) more in the backfield with Alvin Kamara (76 yards, 1 TD) in the frigid conditions in Cleveland last Sunday as Andy Dalton wasn’t asked to do much. With Jalen Hurts sidelined, the Eagles (13-2) still need one more win to clinch the NFC East and also the NFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye. Gardner Minshew (24-for-40, 355 yards, 2 TDs) was more than serviceable in the 40-34 loss at the Cowboys o n Christmas Eve, but did throw 2 INTS and fumbled twice, losing one. But it was the Eagles’ No. 2 defense that let them down the most, allowing 419 yards and squandering a 27-17 third-quarter lead. The Saints defense' fares better against pocket passers like Gardner Minshew and will continue to try to grind out wins with their QB-by-committee, or at least stay within the spread.
Best Bet: Saints +7 (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower if only offered 6.5 – but Eagles still 70/30 in SU pools).
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)