NFL Week 18 Best Bets, Tuesday recaps
Welcome to the Wednesday version of this column where we give our takes on the full NFL Week 18 schedule.
We hit our Best Bet on Tuesday with the Thunder +8.5 vs. the Celtics. For those who follow me on Twitter @ViewFromVegas, about an hour before tipoff, I Tweeted “Bad news: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is OUT for the Thunder; good news is we now get +11.5.” For those who read these columns, you know we love to take underdogs, especially when we feel the line is overinflated because the market overreacts to news like this. The Thunder not only easily covered against the so-called best team in the Association but blew them out 150-117 (wish we had bet some on the money line LOL!). Anyway, that improved our record to 41-24-2 ATS (63.1%) with our daily top pick in these columns since late October. In last week’s NFL column, we won our Best Bet on the Broncos +13 at the Chiefs as they covered in their 27-24 loss and also with the Saints +5.5 at the Eagles, Raiders +10 vs. the 49ers in their 37-34 OT loss. We lost with the Texans and Panthers but swept with our 2-team, 6 point teasers with our top play on Browns +8/Dolphins +8.5 as well as Seahawks +7.5 and Steelers +8.5 (unfortunately didn’t also get to see if Bengals +7 would have cashed vs. the Bills on Monday Night Football). The Saints and Texans plays were originally given out on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights), so we split those to drop to 20-10 ATS (66.7%) with our early-week plays. This week’s plays are the Raiders +10 vs. the Chiefs on Saturday and Lions +4.5 at the Packers on Sunday Night Football (we also gave out TCU +13.5 in next Monday’s CFB Championship Game vs. Georgia. Without further ado, let’s go through the NFL Week 18 schedule (we normally put these in Nevada rotation order, but we’ve moved the games that are being played in the “afternoon” down to the 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT window and the Lions-Packers to the Sunday Night Football slot.Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
This game was moved to the early Saturday slot (4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT) with the Chiefs still playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye. Of course, that’s not as clear with the Bills-Bengals postponement. Anyway, we gave out the Raiders +10 on Sunday night and in the Monday version of this column for many reasons. As we’ve written many times this season, the Chiefs tend to let lesser teams stick around, including only beating the far inferior Broncos 27-24 on Sunday. Meanwhile the Raiders covered as 10-point home dogs on Sunday in a 37-34 OT loss to the 49ers, who have a far better defense than the Chiefs. Double-digit home underdogs are 5-1 ATS on the season, so I had to jump on this. The line has since been bet down to +7.5 (we’d like to think it was the clear sharp side), but I still like it at anything more than a touchdown (double-digit dogs of +7 or more are 15-9 ATS (62.5%).
Best Bet: Raiders +7.5, though hopefully followers already got the +10 (pool play: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, though Chiefs still 70/30 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
The AFC South title comes down to this Saturday primetime matchup after it looked earlier in the season like the Titans were running away with the division. However, they’ve lost six straight, including a 36-22 loss in the first meeting between these two teams, which is a concern. However, they get Derrick Henry back, plus I saw enough good things from Joshua Dobbs in the loss to the Cowboys last Thursday to believe he’ll be better with more than a week to prepare with the first-teamers. The Jaguars are obviously the hotter team with a four-game winning streak, but this is too many points to lay for a team that was 0-3 SU and ATS in the role of favorite before last week’s 31-3 rout of the Texans.
Best Bet: Titans +6.5, though hopefully it returns to +7 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, though Jaguars still 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-1)
The Jets (7-9) have been relegated to the spoiler role after a once-promising season has unraveled with a five-game losing streak. The Dolphins have also lost five straight and need a win and some help (Bills must beat Patriots) to the playoffs. The Dolphins’ have the No. 6 offense in the league with plenty of weapons, but haven't been as explosive when Tua Tagovailoa has been out of the lineup (and they might be going with third-stringer Skylar Thompson). The Jets have mostly relied on its No. 3 defense that allows just 19.1 points per game, but the problem is the offense have averaged a mere 12 points per game in their losing streak (and an even worse 9.5 points per game in the last four games). The Dolphins opened around 4-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon with other books opening at 3, but it was down to -1 at DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon with several books going to pick-’em.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
We heard people saying all season that this was going to be Mike Tomlin’s first year below .500, but the Steelers have won three straight games and five of their last six to get to 8-8 with a chance to prove all those people wrong if they beat the Browns on Sunday. The Steelers are 3-2 SU and ATS as favorites this season, but I wouldn’t trust them in this spot. The Browns beat them 29-17 in Week 3 when the Steelers obviously weren’t playing as well, but that was with Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Browns haven’t been world-beaters with Deshaun Watson, but they are 3-2 SU and ATS in his starts with only the 23-10 loss to the Bengals in Week 14 being their only loss by more than 7, so let’s tease them up over a touchdown to +8.5. This is as good of a time as any to discuss our teaser portfolio with Sunday’s other options being the Texans +8.5 at the Colts, Broncos +9 vs. the Chargers, Bills -1.5 vs. Patriots and Bengals -1 vs. Ravens..
Best Bet: Browns in teasers (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests but Steelers still 55/45 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
This is one of the few Sunday games that doesn’t have any playoff implications and most people will only pay attention to see if the Texans play themselves out of the No. 1 draft choice (if the Bears beat the Vikings). The Colts have lost six straight games since Jeff Saturday won his coaching debut, so we would usually love to fade them in this spot, but the Texans are just as bad (and the 31-3 loss to the Jaguars last week was disappointing). I’ll just put them in a teaser or two.
Best Bet: Texans in teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests but Colts 60/40 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
This line opened Falcons -7.5 after the Buccaneers wrapped up the NFC South title with their 30-24 come-from-behind win vs. the Panthers on Sunday. I had grabbed the Bucs at the inflated price on Sunday night, but it’s now down to 4 after the Buccaneers have said that they aren’t resting starters despite not being able to improve their playoff position. However, I will warn those who still want to take the Bucs +4 that we’ve seen this scenario before where a team says that but then one player limps off with an injury and the game plan changes.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests but Falcons still 75/25 in SU pools).
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
These teams had high hopes that this would be for the NFC South title, but the Panthers were unable to hold on vs. the Buccaneers before losing 30-24. We thought about adding the Panthers to our teaser portfolio, but there are many more dogs that I like better on Sunday and other games I’ll be following a lot more closely.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Saints 60/40 in SU pools).
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
This game has certainly taken on a different feel since Monday’s Bills-Bengals postponement and Damar Hamlin still in critical condition as of early Wednesday. The Patriots are still fighting for a wild-card spot, but I’ve always believed athletes are able to compartmentalize their jobs, so I wouldn’t fade the Bills in this spot and will actually use them in some teasers as they’re also playing for playoff position.