NFL Best Bets for Week 16
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday version of “Tuley’s Takes Today” when we break down the complete NFL Week 16 card with our “takes” on each game, and even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a given game, we give our “pool play strategy,” especially for those in contests where they have to make a pick on every game.
Let me start with a mea culpa to my regular readers for not getting this posted overnight/early morning per usual. I also want to assure any concerned that I tested negative for Covid, so that’s good, but I was out and about over the weekend and then Christmas shopping the last few days, so I picked up something. Without going into too much details, I had some symptoms, including extreme fatigue that kept me from staying up last night to finish this column in time, At least I knew my Best Bet for Wednesday on Western Kentucky has been in this column the past three days and in the VSiN newsletter – and it doesn't go until 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT. Hopefully that makes me feel better. I was also looking forward to posting this column as soon as possible after another successful week of the “dog-or-pass’ approach as we won our top plays in NFL Week 15 on the Dolphins +7.5, Texans +14, Giants +5 on Sunday night and our top 2-point, 6-point teaser on the Lions +1.5/Titans +9. Our only loss was on the Rams +7 (oh, and an ill-advised total on Falcons-Saints Over 43.5). All in all, a great weekend that we hopefully can continue into the home stretch of the season. So, without further ado, let’s get to the NFL Week 16 schedule (and then our regular daily recaps and picks for today are at the bottom):Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5)
The Jets (7-7) are currently tied with the Jaguars for the last AFC wild-card spot with the Jaguars (6-8) just one game back, so this Thursday nighter is much more important than anyone would have thought before the season. The Jaguars have back-to-back upsets of the Titans and Cowboys and are starting to live up to their potential that we saw flashes of earlier in the year. The Jets are leaking jet fuel – or at least some oil – with three straight losses and dropping four of their last five. QB Mike White hasn’t been cleared to play, so Zach Wilson is going to start again. It’s interesting to note the move to the former first-round pick caused the line to move to Jaguars being favored at some books, but it’s now back to Jets -1.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. With the Jets’ offensive woes but a No. 3 defense to stand up to Trevor Lawrence and the resurgent Jaguars’ offense, I was going to give out Under 37.5, but the total is now down to 36. I might also add the Jaguars as a teaser play, so check back on Thursday.
Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Jaguars in all my rare contests that use Thursday Night Football).
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
These teams have both been “doing it with mirrors” all season and were looking like they were being exposed recently, but then the Vikings pulled out the biggest comeback in NFL history on Saturday and the Giants beat the Commanders on Sunday Night Football to solidify their spot in the NFC wild-card race. Even though the Vikings’ allow the most yards per game (399.2) in the league this season, I still can’t trust the Giants’ offense (averaging just 20.5 points per game) to keep up and cover this short number.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
The Saints (5-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 21-18 win vs. the Falcons on Sunday, but they’ve still lost four of their last six; however, they have still pulled within a game of the Buccaneers in the NFC South. The Browns (6-8) are within one game of the last AFC wild-card spot, so there’s more on the line here than one would expect. The line is too short for me to take the Saints plus the points. The Browns, despite a mix of Jacoby Brissett and an unspectacular Deshaun Watson, still have the No. 8 offense at 362.6 yards per game, but the Saints’ No. 11 defense should keep them in the game. This is a good spot to give our teaser portfolio for Saturday. Our top 2-team, 6-point teaser is Saints +8.5/Panthers +9 though you can also use the Saints with the 49ers -1.5 vs. the Commanders, Raiders +8.5 at the Steelers and/or Rams +8 vs. the Broncos.
Best Bet: Saints+8.5/Panthers +9 and other teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests but Browns 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions (-3) at Carolina Panthers
The Lions (7-7) started the season 1-6 but have reversed that by going 6-1 (and a perfect 7-0 ATS) in their last seven games and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs as they’re tied with the slumping Seahawks (who have to play the Chiefs on Saturday) in a chase to catch the Commanders for the NFC’s last wild-card spot. The Panthers have clawed their way into the NFC South race as they only trail the Bucs by one game, but they missed a golden opportunity in Week 15 with a 24-16 loss to the Steelers as 3-point home favorites after winning three of their previous four games. This line is too short for me to take the Panthers ATS, but we’ll tease them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. The Detroit defense still allows 398.5 yards per game, ranking No. 31 in the league ahead of only the Vikings, so the Panthers should be able to keep this a one-score game.
Best Bet: Panthers in teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Lions closer to 60/40 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New England Patriots
This game is getting a lot of attention as the Bengals (10-4) have become a very public team by rebounding from an 0-2 start to go 10-2 in their last 12 games and an even more impressive 11-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Patriots are reeling after the embarrassing way they lost to the Raiders on Sunday and they’ve lost three of four games and are in danger of missing the playoffs. A lot of people are jumping on the Bengals’ bandwagon and making them their play of the week, but all I know is Bill Belichick in “on to Cincinnati” and has always been dangerous off a loss (6-0 ATS the last six times he’s been off a loss and playing a non-division opponent, according to Marc Lawrence of playbook.com and a contestant in the Circa Friday Night Invitational).
Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 (pool play: Patriots 67/33 in ATS contests, though Bengals still 55/45 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-9) at Chicago Bears
The Bills (11-3) remain atop the AFC thanks to holding the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed with their earlier Week 6 win over the Chiefs. However, we’ve had plenty of success fading them against the spread throughout the season. Even though they have the No. 2 offense in yards per game and No. 9 in total defense, they still tend to let teams stick around and are only 6-8 ATS, including failing to cover the last two games in wins over the Jets and Dolphins. And here come the Bears, who are 3-11 but have been more competitive than that when Justin Fields is on the field, including covering in a 25-20 loss to the Eagles on Sunday when they were also 9-point dogs.
Best Bet: Bears +9 (pool play: Bears 67/33 in ATS contest, but Bills still 80/20 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-4)
The Titans (7-7) were running away with the AFC South, but they’re now only one game ahead of the Jaguars after losing four straight games, including a key Week 14 loss to the Jags. The Texans (1-12-1) are on a 9-game losing streak since beating those same Jaguars in Week 5, but are playing much better than those records indicate as they’ve covered the past two games vs. the Cowboys and Chiefs and had their chances at the outright upsets. The Titans won the first meeting 17-10 in Week 8 when they were in much better form, so with the way they’ve been struggling – and averaging only 15.4 points in their last four games – I see no reason why the Texans can’t stay within a field goal of this Titans team this time around after matching the superior Cowboys and Chiefs teams score for score.
Best Bet: Texans +5 (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Titans 75/25 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
The Chiefs (11-3) are trying to beat out the Bills for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye while the Seahawks (7-7), after a surprisingly great start to the season, are half a game behind the Commanders for the NFC’s last wild-card spot. The Chiefs are between 9.5- and 10-point favorites against a Seattle offense that still ranks No. 14 in the league at 349.6 yards per game behind a reborn Geno Smith. The Seahawks started the season 6-3 SU and ATS, but then a 21-16 loss to the Buccaneers in Germany in Week 10 started a downslide that’s resulted in them going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. They’re No. 29 in total defense and have allowed 25.6 points per game in those last five games to make them a risky proposition even if getting double-digit points. Personally, this is a case of “you can’t play ‘em all.” We have the reputation of betting every dog, so this is where we’re trying to be selective and weeding out the weaker dogs.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
We gave out the Falcons +7 as our top early NFL Week 16 play of the week on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and we’re happy to see the line climbing higher. The assumption out there has been that Lamar Jackson would be returning from his knee injury this Saturday, but he missed his eighth straight practice on Wednesday, so we’re happy to take the points being offered, especially if he doesn’t play. And, even if he does play, we’re assuming he’ll be less than 100% and maybe won’t take as much advantage of the Falcons’ No. 28 defense as he would if healthy. Atlanta lost Desmond Ridders’ debut at the Saints, but did cover as 4-point dogs in the 20-17 loss, which is all we’re looking for them to do here.