Welcome to our weekly Wednesday “Tuley’s Takes Today” column in which we break down the full NFL schedule.
We’re coming off another winning NFL week as we won with the Titans last Thursday and the Panthers, Lions and Raiders on Sunday as well as hitting our top teaser. However, we did lose with the Cardinals on Monday Night Football to end on a sour note, but we’re back for more in NFL Week 12, starting with the Thanksgiving tripleheader on Thursday. We’ve also been hot with our daily top picks as we won with Ball State +3 in a 18-17 loss to Miami-Ohio in Tuesday night MACtion. That improved our daily Best Bets to 16-6 ATS (72.7%) the first 22 days of November, including 12-3 ATS (80%) the last 15 days. But let’s get to what everyone is here for on Wednesday. Even if I don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll still give my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.Buffalo Bills (-10 -105) at Detroit Lions
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Lions +10 vs. Bills: The Bills were the Super Bowl favorites for a long time with most people saying they had the best overall team. They even ranked No. 1 in total offense and total defense earlier this season, but while they’re still No. 2 in total offense at 417.4 yards per game, the defense only ranks No. 13 as the Bills have mostly been letting teams stick around. In fact, in addition to losing two straight games earlier this month to the Jets and Vikings, the Bills’ last five games have all been one-score games. And now they face the poster child for covering as underdog: the Lions were 11-6 ATS last season despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 6-4 ATS this year, including three straight upsets of the Packers, Bears and Giants. We gave this out at +10 at DraftKings on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and still love the play as double-digit dogs are 10-4 ATS so far this season.Best Bet: Lions +10 (pool play: Lions in all my rare ATS contests that use Thanksgiving Day games while Bills in all my SU pools).
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)This is a tough choice because I usually love anytime I’m getting an NFL underdog of more than a touchdown, especially one with a winning record like the Giants (7-3). However, as we’ve written many times this season, the Giants have kind of been doing it with mirrors as they're a rather mediocre No. 19 in yards per game and No. 17 in yards allowed per game. The Cowboys won the earlier meeting 23-16 at the Meadowlands, but that was with Cooper Rush at QB and when the Giants were playing better, so I have to pass for now. Check out my Thursday column as I might end up taking the Giants if this gets to double digits.
Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Giants 55/45 on principle in ATS contests, but Cowboys in all my SU pools).
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 -115)
This is another game where I’ve gone back and forth on how to play it. At +3, the Patriots were tempting and are still very teasable up to +8.5 with the line at 2.5. The Vikings certainly look more vulnerable than they did a week ago after getting absolutely dominated by the Cowboys in a 40-3 rout. The Patriots’ defense – ranked No. 4 in yards allowed per game compared to the Cowboys at No. 8 – is capable of containing Kirk Cousins, who usually struggles in primetime games. However, the Vikings should be able to bounce back from that blowout loss and I’m not sure the Patriots’ offense will be able to match them score for score. This comes down to me just feeling more confident in the teaser plays on Sunday.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Here’s another case where I don’t feel like I’m getting enough points to back the underdog (note: I’ve had a lot of success this season by passing on lines that seemed too short). I mean, this is the Jaguars and they’re only getting 4 points vs. the Ravens? Does anyone give Jacksonville any points for home-field advantage? I just can’t pull the trigger.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have covered their last two games (a 25-15 upset vs. the Falcons in the Week 10 Thursday nighter and covering as 13-point dogs at the Ravens in a 13-3 loss) and four of their last five games. However, we have another short home dog here, but at least the Panthers are playable in 2-team, 6-point teasers, so this is a good spot to go over our teaser portfolio for the week as we’ve been killing it with these lately. In Sunday’s early games, we want to tease the Panthers up to 8.5 along with the Titans teased up from +1.5 vs. the Bengals up to +7.5. We’ll also start teasers to the Sunday and Monday night games with the Eagles -1 vs. the Packers and Steelers +8.5 at the Colts.
Best Bet: Panthers +8.5/Titans +7.5 plus other teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Broncos 60/40 in SU pools).
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4)
Believe it or not, this is an important game in the NFC playoff picture with both in the wild-card chase while the Falcons (5-6) are still trying to keep up with the Buccaneers (5-5) in the NFC South. The Commanders (6-5, 6-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-10 win at the Texans last week as they’re still riding high after their 32-21 upset of the previously undefeated Eagles as 11-point road underdogs on Monday Night Football in Week 10. Taylor Heinicke has held onto the starting QB job by leading Washington to a 4-1 record in Carson Wentz’s absence, including other upsets of the Packers and Colts. The Falcons have arguably been overachieving even more this season as they covered the spread in their first six games and covered after closing as 2-point home favorites in a hard-fought 27-24 win vs. the Bears this past Sunday, though earlier bettors pushed on +/- 3. This is another game where I might end up on the Falcons eventually, but my first impression is that this li ne has been shaded just a tad too low.
Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests but Commanders 60/40 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3 -115) at Cleveland Browns
I feel like a broken record as this is another game where I don’t feel I’m getting enough points to make a case for the underdog, but I’m hoping this validates the “dog-or-pass” approach as we try to weed out the weaker dog plays. The Buccaneers (5-5) are trying to take control of the NFC South while the Browns (3-7) haven’t done enough to keep in the playoff hunt while waiting for Deshaun Watson to finish serving his suspension. The Browns have lost five of their last six games as the running game with Nick Chubb hasn’t been enough as we can’t trust them to keep up with Tom Brady and Co.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 60/40 in ATS pools – lower if offered -3.5 – and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
We could make a case for both teams being disrespected by this line. The Bengals have worked through the Super Bowl loser hangover to get to 6-4 and within a game of the Ravens in the AFC North while the Titans (7-3) overcame an 0-2 start to win seven of their last eight games (and eight straight covers for bettors!) to take a three-game lead in the AFC South. But while this line is again short for ATS purposes, the Titans are a prime teaser candidate with defending coach of the year Mike Vrabel looking worthy of winning the award for the second straight season.
Best Bet: Titans +7.5/Panthers +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Titans 55/45 in ATS contests as well as SU pools and we’ll call for the outright upset).
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
The Dolphins (7-3) find themselves tied for first place with the Bills in AFC East and hold the tiebreaker since they upset them 21-19 back in Week 3 as 4.5-point home underdogs (though there’s a rematch in Buffalo in Week 14). Since his concussion issues earlier in the year, Tua Taglovoila has the offense clicking as it’s No. 3 in the league at 391.5 yards per game led by the WR tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle along with an improved running game with Jeff Wilson Jr. coming over from San Francisco to share duties with Raheem Mostert (another former-49er). The Texans are again in the running for the No. 1 draft pick at 1-8-1 as it doesn’t look like it’ll get any better with the No. 30 offense and No. 31 defense. It’s hard to make a case for the Texans; however, as I’ve written tons of time this season, parity is alive and well in the NFL. Besides, double-digit underdogs are 10-4 ATS this season, plus the Texans are 2-0 ATS in that role as they covered as 10-point road dogs in a 16-9 loss at the Broncos in Week 2 and as 14-point home dogs vs. the Eagles in a 29-17 loss in Week 9. In addition, our Best Bet of Week 11 ended up being the Panthers +13 vs, Ravens as we were also fading a double-digit favorite coming off a bye (that trend now 16-6-1 ATS the last 23 times it’s happened).
Best Bet: Texans +13.5 (pool play: Texans 67/33 in ATS contests, though Dolphins still 90/10 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-4.5)
When we jumped on the Bears on Sunday night, we didn’t believe Justin Fields’ injury was too serious. The line went as high as +6 on speculation that he could be out at least this Sunday and possibly longer; however, coach Matt Eberfus also failed to rule out Fields might be done for the season, so as of this writing on early Wednesday morning, we’re still not sure if FIelds will be playing Sunday or not, But a good sign is that this line has dipped back down to 4.5, so hopefully someone knows he’ll be back in the lineup. We obviously prefer Fields to be playing, but we’ll still back the Bears with backup Trevor Siemian as this is also a play against a Jets team that has its own problems and the team possibly turning on QB Zach Wilson after their gut-wrenching 10-3 loss at the Patriots on Sunday but as well as Wilson’s lack of responsibility in his post-game comments.