Wednesday was a pretty quiet day, but things picked up in the Tuley’s Takes home office with a MACtion tripleheader and plenty of other sports betting action, including No, 11 Texas beating No. 2 Gonzaga.
We won our Best Bet again as Eastern Michigan (+7.5) not only covered but beat Kent State outright 34-27. In fact, it was the fourth day our Best Bet has won starting with the Packers on Sunday. Regular readers certainly know we’ve been on a roll lately but I didn’t even realized how hot we’ve been this month until I went back and checked each daily column and found out we’re 8-1 ATS (88.9%) the past 9 days and 12-4 ATS (75%) in the 16 days so far in November. The hot streak actually extends back to Oct. 27 (we didn’t make a play on Oct, 26) as we’re 15-4-1 ATS (78.9%) with the push on Phillies 1st 5 in Game 1 of the World Series on Oct. 28 as they were tied with the Astros 5-5 after 5 innings. Our Best Bet on Halloween, Oct. 31, was graded no-action when Game 3 of the World Series was postponed. Hopefully we can keep the run going. First, let’s recap Wednesday’s betting action and look for a Best Bet on Thursday. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll update our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 11 schedule.Wednesday’s Recaps
CBB: No. 11 Texas routed No. 2 Gonzaga 93-74, but it was NOT an upset as Texas was a 2-point home favorite and easily covered. The game also flew Over the betting total of 144 points.
CFB: Underdogs went 2-0 ATS in MACtion on Wednesday with Miami-Ohio/Northern Illinois closing pick-'em. Eastern Michigan (+7.5 in 31-24 win at Kent State) and Western Michigan (+10 in 12-10 win at Central Michigan) both pulled outright upsets. Road teams swept 3-0 SU and ATS. Unders were 2-1. In midweek MACtion games since they started in November, faves still lead 7-6 SU with 2 pick-'ems, but dogs are dominating at 9-4 ATS (69.2%). Road teams are dominating even more at 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%). Unders take 8-7 lead.
NBA: Faves went 5-4 SU and ATS Wednesday with Celtics-Hawks closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the Rockets (+6.5 at Mavericks), Thunder (+5 at Wizards), Suns (+2.5 vs. Warriors) and Knicks (+2 at Nuggets). Road teams went 6-4 SU and ATS. Overs led 5-4-1 with the push in Heat-Raptors (216).
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 140-76 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 111-97-8 ATS (53.4%). Home teams' leads dipped to 132-88 SU and 109-103-8 ATS (51.4%). Overs' lead in totals wagering improved slightly to 110-105-5 (51.2%).
NHL: Faves went 2-1 with the upset by the Kings (+125 in 3-1 win at Oilers). The Blues (-170) and Senators (-165) won as chalk. Road teams led 2-1. Unders 2-1. On the season, faves lead 145-109 with 6 PKs. Home teams lead 136-120 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders improved slim lead to 127-125-8.
Thursday’s Best Bets
Titans +3.5 vs. Packers: We’ll give our reasoning for this Best Bet below in the rerun of our Wednesday column, but basically we’re back to fading the Packers as we’ve had a really good feel for when to back them and when to go against them this season. We also think the Titans continue to be disrespected by oddsmakers and the public (this line has been bet up from Packers -3 to -3.5 at several books, so shop around) despite covering seven straight games.
SMU +3.5 at Tulane: SMU isn’t ranked like Tulane, but the Mustangs’ offense (averaging 40.3 points per game) is every bit as good as Tulane’s and can keep up with the Green Wave with QB Tanner Mordecai (No. 16 in the country with 2,7980 passing yards, 27 TD passes, 7 INTs). This is kind of an anti-swagger play against Tulane as it had a 5-game winning streak snapped by UCF last Saturday. We usually wait for a 6-game streak, but this is also what handicapper Marc Lawrence has long called a “bubble burst” game as the Green Wave was climbing the national rankings but had any hopes of making the CFB Playoffs dashed with the loss (though that was doubtful anyway, but the players were probably dreaming of it).
Welcome to our weekly Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the complete NFL schedule.
Week 10 was another successful weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Underdogs had another winning week in the NFL by going 8-6 ATS against the consensus closing lines from the books here in Las Vegas (and note that includes the Steelers closing as 1-point home favorites after being a short dog all week), but we fared even better as we went 4-2 ATS with Best Bets in last week’s column with wins on Broncos-Titans Under 38.5, Packers +4 vs. Cowboys, Chargers +7.5 at 49ers and Commanders +11 vs. Eagles but losses on Texans +4.5 at Giants and Jaguars +9.5 at Chiefs (though we warned readers we needed +10 to bet it and didn’t get it, but we’ll take the loss here as we did use it in some contests). We also had another winner with Vikings +7.5 from last Sunday night/Monday morning and hit all of our listed 2-team, 6-point teasers with Panthers +8.5/Lions +8.5, Seahawks +8.5/Lions +8.5 and Steelers +8.5/Lio ns +8.5 (we also recommended Cardinals in teasers, so hopefully some readers cashed in there as well). I could go on and on about how well the “dog-or-pass philosophy” has been working this season, but you’re here for the picks, or maybe to see which dogs I’m unable to make a case for so you can bet the chalk. So, without further ado, let’s tackle the full NFL Week 11 card. Even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll give my “pool play” strategies for those in contests where you have to pick every game. At the end, we’ll do an abbreviated version of our regular daily recaps on Tuesday night’s action (we hit our Best Bet on the biggest NHL dog of the day with the Sharks +240 over the Golden Knights) and then take a look at Wednesday’s betting card as we get ready for the weekend. Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)The Thursday nighter has lost some luster with the slow start by the Packers (4-6), but they are coming off their 31-28 come-from-behind win vs. the Cowboys as 5-point home dogs. I’ve done very well in Green Bay games whether I’ve been fading them (Week 1 at Vikings, Week 5 vs. Giants, Week 7 vs. Jets and Week 9 at Lions) or backing them (Week 3 at Buccaneers, Week 8 at Bills as they covered +10.5 in a 27-17 loss and Week 10 at Cowboys). We’re back to fading them here with the Titans, who rebounded themselves from a slow (0-2) start as they’re 6-1 straight-up since then with the only loss at the Chiefs in Week 9, though they covered as 14-point dogs in the 20-17 loss, so they’ve covered seven straight. Tennessee mostly relies on a strong defense (No. 8 in points allowed at 18.7 points per game) and RB Derrick Henry (second in NFL with 923 rushing yards), though QB Ryan Tannehill did return to the starting lineup and threw 2 TD passes in the 1 7-10 win vs. the Broncos that should be just the kind of low-scoring game that they’ll try to get into with the Packers here.
Best Bet: Titans +3 or better (pool play: Titans in all my rare contests that use the Thursday Night Football game).
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12)
We gave this out on “The Greg Peterson’ Experience” on Sunday night and in Monday’s version of this column as we’ve said time and again this season that parity is alive and well even though the public perception out there is that there's a wide gap between the haves and have-nots. We feel validated by the fact that double-digits underdogs are 9-4 ATS against the closing lines. The Ravens usually lead by double digits in every game, but their defense has given up a lot of leads this year. The Panthers are playing better despite trading away RB Christian McCaffrey and are coming off a mini-bye after upsetting the Falcons 25-15 in the Week 10 Thursday nighter. I actually like the move to start Baker Mayfield over the injured PJ Walker as I believe that gives them the best chance to cover.
Best Bet: Panthers +12 (pool play: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 90/10 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8)
I’m certainly tempted to fade the Bills again as I’ve cashed by going against them each of the last three weeks with the Packers, Jets and VIkings. As I’ve written before, they tend to play close games, but while Nick Chubb and the Browns’ running game gives them a chance to shorten the game and stay close, I’m just not comfortable trusting Jacoby Brissett to keep up with Josh Allen. With that being said, I think this is a good spot to start our Week 11 teaser portfolio with 2-team, 6 point teasers. Now, while this is a “Wong teaser” (I like to call them “advantage teasers”) as we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7, moving the favorites down hasn't been as strong this season. Regardless, I’ll pair this with my preferred dog teasers on the Raiders +8.5 at the Broncos and Vikings +7.5 (DraftKings down to Cowboys -1 as of early Wednesday, but some books are still at 1.5). Another possibility is teasing the 49ers down from -8 to -2 vs. the Cardinals in Mexico City on Monday night, though that’s a less-desirable play as I like the Cards as a live dog.
Best Bet: Bills -2/Raiders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser and others (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 85/15 in SU pools).
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is a similar situation to the Vikings last week when I took +7.5 on Sunday night and that disappeared when it was first reported that Allen wasn’t going to play. Later in the week in this column, I couldn’t give out the Vikings +3.5 in good conscience (with +7.5 in my proverbial pocket). This week, I gave out Colts +9.5 on Sunday night as I loved the value against an Eagles team that was undefeated at the time but was just 5-3-1 ATS with non-covering wins vs. the Lions, Cardinals and Texans. Of course, the Eagles went out on Monday Night Football and lost 32-21 to the Commanders, so this line has now been adjusted under a touchdown to Eagles -6.5. Personally, I’m not willing to bet on the Colts +6.5 when I already have +9.5 (and I don’t have to), but I’m left with a hard decision about whether to take them in my contests like the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest. I do like interim coach Jeff Saturday’ m ove to go back to Matt Ryan as the starting QB as it gives them the best chance to succeed. In fact, in last week’s column I wrote: “If Matt Ryan were to be put back into the starting QB job, I would be willing to take the points with the Colts, but not with Sam Ehlinger,” so my biggest regret of Week 10 was not taking the Colts. When it comes down to it, I’m probably going to take them in contests as regular readers will recognize this as an anti-swagger spot against the Eagles after having their 8-game losing streak snapped.
Best Bet: Colts +6.5 or higher even though we have better number in pocket (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, but Eagles still ).