Sunday was a roller-coaster ride in the Tuley’s Takes home office, highlighted of course by following my Best Bets on the NFL Week 12 schedule.
We ended up losing our stated Best Bet on the Texans +14 at the Dolphins, which we aso used in VSiN’s BetsGiving handicapping contest along with Under 47 in the same game. The side looked like a horrible bet as the Dolphins dominated on both sides of the ball in building a 30-0 lead by halftime. However, as we’ve written before, just like the NBA, in today’s NFL, “everybody makes a run.” In this case the Texans chip away at the lead in the second half and actually pulled within two scores at 30-15 with 9 minutes to play in regulation. My problem was that if the Texans covered the 14-point spread, I would love my Under play (and if the Dolphins scored again, I would have lost both. But the game ended up 30-15 and I split. Despite the loss, my daily Best Bets are still 18-9 ATS (66.7%) the first 27 days of November, including 14-6 ATS (70%) the last 20 days. I also lost top plays on the Bears +7 and Falcons +4.5 in the early games, though I did win my top 2-team, 6-point teaser play on the Panthers +8.5/Titans +7.5 from earlier in the week, as well as other teaser legs including the Eagles -1 and have a couple of live teasers to the Steelers +8.5 on Monday Night Football. The holiday weekend was going to end up profitable no matter what (if we include our Thanksgiving Day wins on the LIons +10 and Giants +10 in spread-covering losses for both), but our main focus of Sunday ended up being our BetsGiving play on the Raiders +170 money line (I also bet them +3.5 and was kicking myself for not using that as my side bet in the contest instead of the Texans). There were many times that I felt doomed in regulation before the Raiders rallied to tie the game 28-28 just after the two-minute warning. Then, in overtime, the Raiders came up short on a 3rd-and-short and Daniel Carlson missed a 56-yard FG attempt, so I thought they were going to lose or end up in a tie. However, after a three-and-out by the Seahawks, Josh Jacobs broke free on an 86-yard TD run to win the game 40-34 and put me into first place in BetsGiving heading into the Monday Night Football finale in which all 18 contestants have to pick 1 side and 1 prop. As I told the host of “The Greg Peterson Experience” on my regular 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night appearance, I still consider myself an underdog vs. the field as I have a target on my back with the 17 other contestants playing long-shot props to try to overtake me. It’s going to be an interesting Monday at VSiN as BetsGiving picks aren’t due until kickoff of the Colts-Steelers game. Let’s get to our daily recaps of all the Sunday betting action, then make my Best Bet for Monday (hmmm, including maybe a clue on my BetsGiving pick?) as well as my early NFL Week 13 picks..Sunday’s Recaps
NFL: Eagles beat Packers 40-33 on Sunday Night Football and covered as 6.5-point home favorites (flew way Over 46.5 points). On the day, faves went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS with 2 pick-'ems (DEN-CAR & CIN-TEN). Home teams went 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS. Unders dipped to 7-5 while primetime Overs went 2-0 in Week 11. Including Thanksgiving, faves lead 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS with 2 PKs on the weekend heading into Monday Night Football. The only outright upsets were by the Browns, Jaguars and Raiders. Home teams dominated at 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS. Unders lead 8-7 despite primetime Overs going 2-0.
More NFL: On the season, faves lead 109-65-1 SU with 4 PKs, but dogs still lead 94-75-6 ATS (55.6%). Home teams lead 96-76-1 SU with 6 neutral-site games and took lead at 86-81-6 ATS (51.5%). Unders lead 100-77-2 (56.5%) and primetime Unders dipped to 19-16-1 (54.3%).