NFL Week 17 Best Bets
Thursday was another day catching up on bowl previews and editing/posting other articles on the VSiN.com website, leading up to the Thursday Night Football game to kick off NFL Week 17.
Our Best Bet of the day was on the Titans as double-digit home underdogs vs. the Cowboys. We hope anyone following us was able to get the Titans +14 as the Cowboys won 27-13, however, we have to grade it as a loss for our purposes here as we gave it out at +10 and +12.5. This dropped our record to 38-23-2 ATS (62.3%) with our daily top play the last 63 days (nine full weeks). We’re still pretty proud of that, plus we’ve always maintained that anyone following our picks can expect to do around 5% better in the long run with line shopping. Anyway, let’s get to our daily recaps of yesterday’s betting action in the major sports and then our Best Bets for Friday. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll repeat our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 17 schedule. We then add updates in italics based on how the lines are moving.Thursday Recaps
NFL: Cowboys beat Titans 27-13 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 17, covering after closing as consensus 13.5-point road favorites (hopefully dog bettors cashed on Titans +14). The game stayed just Under the closing betting total of 40.5 points.
More NFL: On the season, faves lead 153-82-2 SU with 4 pick-'ems, but dogs still lead 125-105-7 ATS (54.3%). Home teams dipped to 128-105-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 116-113-6 ATS (50.7%). Unders improved to 133-106-2 (55.6%) with primetime Unders 32-19-1 (62.7%).
CFB: No. 12 Washington beat No. 20 Texas 27-20 late Thursday night in the Alamo Bowl. The ViewFromVegas is it was an upset as the Huskies closed as 3-point underdogs (stayed Under betting total of 67 points). On the day, faves went 2-1 SU but dogs swept 3-0 ATS. Unders led 2-1. Faves improved to 18-11 SU in bowl season, however, dogs improved to 17-12 ATS (58.6%). Unders improved to 18-10-1 (64.3%).More CFB: Earlier, Florida State beat Oklahoma 35-32 in Cheez-It Bowl, but did NOT cover as 10.5-point favorite (went just Over consensus closing total of 66.5). Minnesota beat Syracuse 28-20 in Pinstripe Bowl and also didn't cover as 11-point fave (went Over 45).
CBB: In Thursday's only game with a Top 25 team, No. 1 Purdue routed Florida A&M 82-49, but did NOT cover as 36.5-point home favorite.
NBA: Faves went 4-2 SU but 3-3 ATS with Clippers (+6.5) covering in 116-110 loss at Celtics. The upsets were by the Spurs (+4.5 in 122-115 home win vs. Knicks) and Pacers (+4 in 135-126 home win vs. Cavaliers). Home teams went 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS. Over/Unders split 3-3.
More NBA: On the season, faves lead 331-188 SU with 9 pick-'ems, but dogs still lead 264-239-16 ATS (52.5%). Home teams lead 324-204 SU and 274-239-15 ATS (53.4%). In totals wagering, Overs lead 270-252-6 (51.7%).
NHL: Faves went 6-5 with upsets by the Coyotes (+245 vs. Maple Leafs), Senators (+150 at Capitals), Flyers (+140 at Sharks), Kings (+126 at Avalanche) and Stars (+107 at Wild). Home teams went 7-4. Overs led 6-5. On season, faves 330-212 with 16 PKs. Home teams 292-262 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 273-263-22.
Friday Bowl Best Bet
Pittsburgh +8 vs. UCLA: We’re putting our 3-0-1 ATS bowl Best Bet record on the line with this play. The big question has been whether UCLA star QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet would play in the game or opt-out. They were both practicing with the team – with Thompson-Robinson taking most of the first-team snaps while Charbonnet was in-and-out, according to practice reports. Pittsburgh, which won its last four regular-season games, has its own issues as former USC QB Kedon Slovis is back in the transfer portal after playing 11 games for the Panthers this year with 2,397 passing yards, 10 TDs and 9 INTs. Pitt will also be without top RB Israel Abaniknada. However, we feel Pitt is the right side, especially as the line continues to rise. The problem for UCLA has been a defense that’s allowed 28.3 points per game and we don’t see that getting fixed by Friday. Similar to when we took BYU, who ended up going with a third-st ring QB in its Texas Bowl win vs. SMU, we’re trusting Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi to plug the right QB into the system and pick up where Slovis left off against a soft UCLA defense and win (or at least cover) even if Thompson-Robinson turns this into another shootout.
NBA Friday Best Bets
Pistons +7.5 at Bulls: This is a swagger play as the Pistons just snapped a 6-game losing streak on Wednesday at home vs. the Magic. They now get “more than a TD” at Chicago. The Pelicans -1 vs. the 76ers is a anti-swagger play against the 76ers, who just had an 8-game winning streak snapped Tuesday at the Wizards.
Welcome to the weekly Wednesday version of “Tuley’s Takes Today” where we break down the complete NFL Week 17 card with our “takes” on each game, and even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a given matchup, we give our “pool play strategy,” especially for those in contests where they have to make a pick on every game.
After one of our best weeks in NFL Week 15, we had one of our worst in Week 16 as we went 2-5 ATS with our top plays as we had wins on the Texans +3.5 and Cardinals +7.5 but losses on the Bears +8.5, Patriots +3, Falcons +7, Eagles +5.5 and Colts +5. Fortunately, we cut our losses with 2-team, 6-point teasers starting with the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football and continuing on Christmas Eve with the Saints, Panthers, Texans, 49ers and Raiders. So, let’s get to the NFL Week 17 schedule, and then – as has become the custom here – we’ll update this column in our daily “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns through the weekend..Dallas Cowboys (-10) at Tennessee Titans
Yes, we know the Titans have lost five straight games and are 0-4-1 ATS during that run. And their No. 30 offense is even worse with QB Ryan Tannehill being out with a right ankle injury and replaced with rookie Malik Willis. This line opened Cowboys -9.5 at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon, but when it crossed the semi-key number of 10, I couldn’t resist taking the Titans. Double-digit underdogs are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) this season, but are actually perfect at 4-0 ATS when they’re at home: Panthers +13 vs. Buccaneers in Week 7, Texans +14 vs. Eagles in Week 9 (also on Thursday Night Football), Jets +10.5 vs. Bills in Week 9 and Texans 14 vs. Chiefs in Week 15. With the move to Cowboys -12 at most books on Wednesday (as high as 13 at the Westgate), I like it even more.
Best Bet: Titans +12 (pool play: Titans in my rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Cowboys in all my SU pools).
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
When it was announced that the Panthers (6-9) still controlled their own destiny in the NFC South, a lot of people chuckled, but no one is laughing now as they’re within a game of the Buccaneers (7-8) and go for the season sweep on Sunday. The Panthers dominated the Lions on both sides of the ball in their 37-23 win on Christmas Eve as they ran for a team-record 320 rushing yards and Sam Darnold added 250 passing yards and a TD. Carolina is 4-2 in its last six games and 5-1 ATS. Tom Brady pulled another Houdini act in rallying the Buccaneers to a 19-16 OT on Christmas night to stay atop the division. The Bucs’ No. 6-ranked defense continues to keep them in games and rely on Brady to work his late-game magic. That didn’t work in the first meeting in Week 7 as the Panthers shut down the Bucs until allowing a field goal with 9:33 left in the game on the way to a 21-3 victory. I love getting points with a team that has already shown they can beat the other team.
Best Bet: Panthers +3 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contest – lower at 2.5 – but Buccaneers 60/40 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-2.5)
The Commanders (7-7-1) are trying to hold onto the last NFC wild-card spot in the middle of a QB controversy. After not playing since Week 6, Carson Wentz replaced an ineffective Taylor Heinicke and went 12-for-16 for 123 yards and a TD in the loss at the 49ers last Saturday. This line isn’t expected to move much regardless of who Ron Rivera names as the starter. The Browns (6-9) are 2-2 SU and ATS since Deshaun Watson took over after his suspension, but they’re playing good enough to stay within one score (in fact, they’ve lost by more than 8 points just twice all season), so we’ll use them in our teaser portfolio. In Sunday’s early games, the best 2-team, 6-point teaser is Browns +8.5/Dolphins +8.5 and we’ll also use with Seahawks +8 in the afternoon and the Bengals +7.5 on Monday Night Football (if you like teasing favorites down below a field goal, you can also look at Eagles -1, Lions pick-’em, 49ers pick-’em or Chargers -0.5).
Best Bet: Browns +8.5/Dolphins +8.5 and other teasers (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
The Saints (6-9) still have a prayer in the NFC South, but must win their last two games (at Eagles and vs. Panthers) and also have the Buccaneers lose their last two games (vs. Panthers and at Falcons) due to being swept by Tampa Bay this season. Since losing that second meeting in 17-16 vs. the Bucs, the Saints have won two in a row over the Falcons and Browns. Their No. 9 defense is the main reason the Saints have any chance as they’ve allowed an average of 15.6 points per game in their last eight games. The offense used backup QB Taysom Hill (56 rushing yards and a TD) more in the backfield with Alvin Kamara (76 yards, 1 TD) in the frigid conditions in Cleveland last Sunday as Andy Dalton wasn’t asked to do much. With Jalen Hurts sidelined, the Eagles (13-2) still need one more win to clinch the NFC East and also the NFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye. Gardner Minshew (24-for-40, 355 yards, 2 TDs) was more than serviceable in the 40-34 loss at the Cowboys o n Christmas Eve, but did throw 2 INTS and fumbled twice, losing one. But it was the Eagles’ No. 2 defense that let them down the most, allowing 419 yards and squandering a 27-17 third-quarter lead. The Saints defense' fares better against pocket passers like Gardner Minshew and will continue to try to grind out wins with their QB-by-committee, or at least stay within the spread.
Best Bet: Saints +7 (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests – higher at 7.5, lower if only offered 6.5 – but Eagles still 70/30 in SU pools).
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)