NFL Week 16 Best Bets and recaps
Thursday was a day of getting work and family duties checked off the “To Do List” in advance of the big holiday weekend, then kicking off NFL Week 16 with Thursday Night Football.
Fortunately, we easily won our Best Bet of the day with our 2-team, 6-point teaser on the Jaguars +8/Under 42 in the Jaguars’ 19-3 upset of the Jets (we just wish we had played it a straight parlay as both sides were easily right-side winners LOL). That improved our record to 36-19-1 ATS (65.5%) with our daily top play the last 56 days. We sincerely hope we’ve helped our loyal readers make some cash for the holidays. Personally, it’s been a great run, though I actually lost money overall Thursday as my three other plays all lost on the Flames -110 at the Kings in OT, Islanders +140 at the Rangers and Wizards +6.5 at the Jazz. In retrospect, it makes sense that I was having a hard time deciding between those for a play of the day before I settled on the Jags/Under teaser! Anyway, let’s get to the rest of the Thursday recaps as well as our Best Bets for Friday. Then, as has become our custom here, we’ll rerun our 3,500-word breakdown of the full NFL Week 16 schedule with updates based on current lines.Thursday Recaps
NFL: Jaguars beat Jets 19-3 on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 16. The Jaguars pulled the minor upset as 2.5-point road underdogs and +125 on the money line as the game stayed way Under the low betting total of 36.5 points.
More NFL: On the season, faves dipped to 142-77-2 SU with 4 pick-'ems, but dogs improved to 118-96-7 ATS (55.1%). Home teams dipped to 120-97-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 108-104-6 ATS (50.9%). Unders improved to 123-100-2 (55.2%) and primetime Unders to 28-19-1 (59.6%).
CFB: Air Force (+3.5) upset Baylor 30-15 in the Armed Forces Bowl (went Over low total of 42.5). Overall in bowl season, faves still lead 8-6 SU, but dogs improved lead to 9-5 ATS due to Miami-Ohio, North Texas and Liberty covering in SU losses. Unders dropped to 7-6-1.CBB: Missouri upset No. 16 Illinois 93-71 as 6.5-point underdog. No. 4 Kansas beat Harvard 68-54, but did NOT cover as 21.5-point favorite. No. 5 Arizona routed Morgan State 93-68, but also didn't cover as 31-point chalk.
NBA: Favorites went 2-0 SU and ATS on Thursday with the Pelicans (-8.5) covering in 126-117 home win vs. the Spurs (went Over 228.5) and Jazz (-7) covering in 120-112 home win vs. Wizards (pushed on 232). Home teams also went 2-0 SU and ATS. Overs led 1-0-1.
More NBA: On the season, faves improved to 302-167 SU with 9 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 236-218-15 ATS (52%). Home teams improved to 292-186 SU and 244-219-15 ATS (52.7%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 239-233-6 (50.6%).
NHL: Faves/dogs split 4-4 Thursday (after faves went 29-10 the last 5 days). The biggest were upsets by the Sharks (+145 vs. Wild) and Hurricanes (+115 at Penguins). Home teams went 6-2. Overs also led 6-2. On the season, faves lead 314-202 with 15 PK. Home teams lead 276-251 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders lead 260-251-20.
Friday Best Bets
Louisiana +7 vs. Houston: This isn’t one of my strongest plays of the bowl season (and I’m reluctant to put my 2-0 ATS bowl record on the line with such a lukewarm opinion), but I’m taking Louisiana (6-6) plus the points against Houston. Louisiana comes out of the underrated Sun Belt and has four key players that have opted out of the Independence Bowl: RB Chris Smith, WRs Michael Jefferson and Dontae Fleming, plus DE Andre Jones. In addition, the Ragin’ Cajuns will be playing a backup QB as Ben Wooldridge is out with a lower body injury. But this is more of a fade against Houston (8-4), which was only 4-8 ATS this season and an even worse 1-7 ATS as a favorite. They have been failing against oddsmakers’ expectations all season, so I’ll take the 7-point head-start. Besides, one thing that Louisiana does well is defend against the pass, which will be important as Houston QB Clayton Tune is tied for the lead in the nation with 37 TD passes with Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams (USC) and C.J. Stroud (Ohio State). But Tune also has 10 INTs while Louisiana's defense is 11th in the country with 15 INTs. Louisiana also has a secret weapon in punt returner Eric Garror, who was No. 3 in the nation with 14.8 yards per return, plus two TDs. Underdogs are 9-5 ATS (64.3%) in the early bowl games for a reason: they’re often the more motivated team in a rare nationally televised game.
Devils +100 vs. Bruins: We have three swagger/anti-swagger plays again on Friday (Red Wings’ game in Ottawa is postponed or it would have been four), though I’m still siding with the football play – as lukewarm as it is – as my top play. The Devils snapped a 6-game losing streak on Wednesday and should follow that up with a win here.
Raptors +6 at Cavaliers: The Raptors also got some swagger back as they also snapped a 6-game losing streak on Wednesday. The anti-swagger play is the Bulls +5.5 at the Knicks after the Knicks had an 8-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday.
Welcome to the weekly Wednesday version of “Tuley’s Takes Today” where we break down the complete NFL Week 16 card with our “takes” on each game, and even if we don’t have a Best Bet on a given matchup, we give our “pool play strategy,” especially for those in contests where they have to make a pick on every game.
We hope to continue our winning ways after we won our top plays in NFL Week 15 on the Dolphins +7.5, Texans +14, Giants +5 on Sunday night and our top 2-point, 6-point teaser on the Lions +1.5/Titans +9. Our only loss was on the Rams +7 (oh, and an ill-advised total on Falcons-Saints Over 43.5). All in all, a great weekend that we hopefully can continue into the home stretch of the season. So, let’s get to the NFL Week 16 schedule, along with updates based on current lines as we try to time our plays to get maximum value. .Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5)
The Jets (7-7) are currently tied with the Patriots for the last AFC wild-card spot with the Jaguars (6-8) just one game back (and the Jaguars one game behind the Titans in the AFC South), so this Thursday nighter is much more important than anyone would have thought before the season. The Jaguars have back-to-back upsets of the Titans and Cowboys and are starting to live up to their potential that we saw flashes of earlier in the year. The Jets are leaking jet fuel – or at least some oil – with three straight losses and dropping four of their last five. QB Mike White hasn’t been cleared to play, so Zach Wilson is going to start again. It’s interesting to note the move to the former first-round pick caused the line to move to Jaguars being favored at some books, but it’s now back to Jets -1.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. With the Jets’ offensive woes but a No. 3 defense to stand up to Trevor Lawrence and the resurgent Jaguars’ offense, I was go ing to give out Under 37.5, but the total went as low as 36 before going back up to 37.5. I think the smarter play is to use a 2-team, 6-point teaser to give a little more wiggle room up to Under 43.5 along with taking the Jaguars up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 and getting more than a TD.Best Bet: Jaguars +7.5/Under 43.5 in 2-point, 6-point teaser (pool play: Jaguars in all my rare contests that use Thursday Night Football).
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
These teams have both been “doing it with mirrors” all season and were looking like they were being exposed recently, but then the Vikings pulled out the biggest comeback in NFL history on Saturday and the Giants beat the Commanders on Sunday Night Football to solidify their spot in the NFC wild-card race. Even though the Vikings’ allow the most yards per game (399.2) in the league this season, I still can’t trust the Giants’ offense (averaging just 20.5 points per game) to keep up and cover this short number.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 80/20 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
The Saints (5-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 21-18 win vs. the Falcons on Sunday, but they’ve still lost four of their last six; however, they have still pulled within a game of the Buccaneers in the NFC South. The Browns (6-8) are within one game of the last AFC wild-card spot, so there’s more on the line here than one would expect. The line is too short for me to take the Saints plus the points. The Browns, despite a mix of Jacoby Brissett and an unspectacular Deshaun Watson, still have the No. 8 offense at 362.6 yards per game, but the Saints’ No. 11 defense should keep them in the game. This is a good spot to give our teaser portfolio for Saturday. Our top 2-team, 6-point teaser is Saints +8.5/Panthers +9 though you can also use the Saints with the 49ers -1.5 vs. the Commanders, Raiders +8.5 at the Steelers and/or Rams +8 vs. the Broncos.
Best Bet: Saints+8.5/Panthers +9 and other teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests but Browns 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions (-3) at Carolina Panthers
The Lions (7-7) started the season 1-6 but have reversed that by going 6-1 (and a perfect 7-0 ATS) in their last seven games and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs as they’re tied with the slumping Seahawks (who have to play the Chiefs on Saturday) in a chase to catch the Commanders for the NFC’s last wild-card spot. The Panthers have clawed their way into the NFC South race as they only trail the Bucs by one game, but they missed a golden opportunity in Week 15 with a 24-16 loss to the Steelers as 3-point home favorites after winning three of their previous four games. This line is too short for me to take the Panthers ATS, but we’ll tease them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. The Detroit defense still allows 398.5 yards per game, ranking No. 31 in the league ahead of only the Vikings, so the Panthers should be able to keep this a one-score game.
Best Bet: Panthers in teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Lions closer to 60/40 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New England Patriots
This game is getting a lot of attention as the Bengals (10-4) have become a very public team by rebounding from an 0-2 start to go 10-2 in their last 12 games and an even more impressive 11-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Patriots are reeling after the embarrassing way they lost to the Raiders on Sunday and they’ve lost three of four games and are in danger of missing the playoffs. A lot of people are jumping on the Bengals’ bandwagon and making them their play of the week, but all I know is Bill Belichick in “on to Cincinnati” and has always been dangerous off a loss (6-0 ATS the last six times he’s been off a loss and playing a non-division opponent, according to Marc Lawrence of playbook.com and a contestant in the Circa Friday Night Invitational).
Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 (pool play: Patriots 67/33 in ATS contests, though Bengals still 55/45 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-9) at Chicago Bears
The Bills (11-3) remain atop the AFC thanks to holding the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed with their earlier Week 6 win over the Chiefs. However, we’ve had plenty of success fading them against the spread throughout the season. Even though they have the No. 2 offense in yards per game and No. 9 in total defense, they still tend to let teams stick around and are only 6-8 ATS, including failing to cover the last two games in wins over the Jets and Dolphins. And here come the Bears, who are 3-11 but have been more competitive than that when Justin Fields is on the field, including covering in a 25-20 loss to the Eagles on Sunday when they were also 9-point dogs.