Friday Best Bets, Thursday recaps
Thursday was a surreal day in the Tuley’s Takes home office with no Thursday Night Football to build the day around, but it was busy enough with basketball and hockey action as we continue to look ahead to the final weekend of the NFL regular season.
Of course, the news cycle continued to still revolve around the NFL with a very positive update on Damar Hamlin’s condition (wasn’t it awesome to hear he asked if the Bills won and being told that he won the game of life?) and the playoff ramifications of the postponed and now canceled Monday Night Football game. As for my basketball and hockey action, I lost my Best Bet of the day on the Mavericks +2 (closed +3) vs. the Celtics. The Mavs fell behind and I kept thinking “everyone makes a run” – but they didn’t and my record fell to 42-25-2 ATS (62.7%) with my daily top play the last 69 days since late October. I also lost a smaller play on the Rockets +6 vs. the Jazz, but the good news is I won my lone NHL play with the Predators +190 (I got +200) in an anti-swagger play against the Hurricanes and that mostly canceled out our losses on the day. Let’s get to the recaps of the rest of Thursday’s action and our Friday Best Bets. Then, as has become our custom around here, we’ll rerun our Wednesday column in which we update our “takes” on the full NFL Week 18 schedule.Thursday Recaps
CBB: No. 1 Purdue beat No. 24 Ohio State 71-69, but it was actually an upset as Boilermakers closed as 2-point road underdogs. No. 9 Arizona beat Washington 70-67, but didn't cover as 18.5-point fave. No. 9 Gonzaga beat San Francisco 77-75, but didn't cover as 9-point road fave.
NBA: Faves went 4-0 SU and ATS Thursday (after dogs went 7-5 SU and 10-2 ATS on Wednesday). The Grizzlies (-6.5 at Magic), Celtics (-3 at Mavericks), Jazz (-7 at Rockets) and Nuggets (-4.5 vs. Clippers) covered as chalk. Road teams went 3-1 SU and ATS. Over/Unders split 2-2.
More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 362-208 SU with 9 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 290-263-17 ATS (52.4%). Home teams lead 354-225 SU but dipped to 302-261-16 ATS (53.6%). In totals wagering, Overs still lead 295-277-7 (51.6%).
NHL: Faves went 6-4 with upsets by the Predators (+190 at Hurricanes), Kraken (+190 at Maple Leafs), Blues (+160 at Devils) and Canucks (+135 vs. Avalanche). Road teams went 6-4. Overs led 6-3-1 with push in NYI-EDM (6). On the season, faves lead 353-226 with 16 games closing pick-'em. Home teams lead 308-283 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders' slim lead dipped to 288-282-25.
Friday NBA Best Bets
Pelicans +4.5 vs. Nets: This is an anti-swagger play against the Nets, who had their 12-game winning streak snapped Wednesday in Chicago. This is a huge letdown spot after that run. In addition, the Nets are only 10-9-1 ATS as road faves this season, so they don’t always win by margin away from home. Zion Williamson is out of the Pelicans, but they’re used to playing without their oft-injured star, including going 4-1 this season without Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Another potential Friday play is the Thunder -1 vs. the Wizards, who just had a 5-game winning streak Tuesday at the Bucks.
NFL Week 18 Best Bets, 'takes' on full card
Welcome to the Wednesday version of this column where we give our takes on the full NFL Week 18 schedule.
In last week’s NFL column, we won our Best Bet on the Broncos +13 at the Chiefs as they covered in their 27-24 loss and also with the Saints +5.5 at the Eagles, Raiders +10 vs. the 49ers in their 37-34 OT loss. We lost with the Texans and Panthers but swept with our 2-team, 6 point teasers with our top play on Browns +8/Dolphins +8.5 as well as Seahawks +7.5 and Steelers +8.5 (unfortunately didn’t also get to see if Bengals +7 would have cashed vs. the Bills on Monday Night Football). The Saints and Texans plays were originally given out on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights), so we split those to drop to 20-10 ATS (66.7%) with our early-week plays. This week’s plays are the Raiders +10 vs. the Chiefs on Saturday and Lions +4.5 at the Packers on Sunday Night Football (we also gave out TCU +13.5 in next Monday’s CFB Championship Game vs. Georgia). Without further ado, let’s go through the NFL Week 18 schedule (we normally put these in Nevada rotation order, but we’ve moved the games that are being played in the “afternoon” down to the 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT window and the Lions-Packers to the Sunday Night Football slot.Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
This game was moved to the early Saturday slot (4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT) with the Chiefs still playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye. Of course, that’s not as clear with the Bills-Bengals postponement. Anyway, we gave out the Raiders +10 on Sunday night and in the Monday version of this column for many reasons. As we’ve written many times this season, the Chiefs tend to let lesser teams stick around, including only beating the far inferior Broncos 27-24 on Sunday. Meanwhile the Raiders covered as 10-point home dogs on Sunday in a 37-34 OT loss to the 49ers, who have a far better defense than the Chiefs. Double-digit home underdogs are 5-1 ATS on the season, so I had to jump on this. The line has since been bet down to +7.5 (we’d like to think it was the clear sharp side), but I still like it at anything more than a touchdown (double-digit dogs of +7 or more are 15-9 ATS (62.5%).
Best Bet: Raiders +7.5, though hopefully followers already got the +10 (pool play: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, though Chiefs still 70/30 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
The AFC South title comes down to this Saturday primetime matchup after it looked earlier in the season like the Titans were running away with the division. However, they’ve lost six straight, including a 36-22 loss in the first meeting between these two teams, which is a concern. However, they get Derrick Henry back, plus I saw enough good things from Joshua Dobbs in the loss to the Cowboys last Thursday to believe he’ll be better with more than a week to prepare with the first-teamers. The Jaguars are obviously the hotter team with a four-game winning streak, but this is too many points to lay for a team that was 0-3 SU and ATS in the role of favorite before last week’s 31-3 rout of the Texans.
Best Bet: Titans +6.5, though hopefully it returns to +7 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, though Jaguars still 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-1)
The Jets (7-9) have been relegated to the spoiler role after a once-promising season has unraveled with a five-game losing streak. The Dolphins have also lost five straight and need a win and some help (Bills must beat Patriots) to the playoffs. The Dolphins’ have the No. 6 offense in the league with plenty of weapons, but haven't been as explosive when Tua Tagovailoa has been out of the lineup (and they might be going with third-stringer Skylar Thompson). The Jets have mostly relied on its No. 3 defense that allows just 19.1 points per game, but the problem is the offense have averaged a mere 12 points per game in their losing streak (and an even worse 9.5 points per game in the last four games). The Dolphins opened around 4-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday afternoon with other books opening at 3, but it was down to -1 at DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon with several books going to pick-’em.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
We heard people saying all season that this was going to be Mike Tomlin’s first year below .500, but the Steelers have won three straight games and five of their last six to get to 8-8 with a chance to prove all those people wrong if they beat the Browns on Sunday. The Steelers are 3-2 SU and ATS as favorites this season, but I wouldn’t trust them in this spot. The Browns beat them 29-17 in Week 3 when the Steelers obviously weren’t playing as well, but that was with Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Browns haven’t been world-beaters with Deshaun Watson, but they are 3-2 SU and ATS in his starts with only the 23-10 loss to the Bengals in Week 14 being their only loss by more than 7, so let’s tease them up over a touchdown to +8.5. This is as good of a time as any to discuss our teaser portfolio with Sunday’s other options being the Texans +8.5 at the Colts, Broncos +9 vs. the Chargers, Bills -1.5 vs. Patriots and Bengals -1 vs. Ravens..
Best Bet: Browns in teasers (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests but Steelers still 55/45 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
This is one of the few Sunday games that doesn’t have any playoff implications and most people will only pay attention to see if the Texans play themselves out of the No. 1 draft choice (if the Bears beat the Vikings). The Colts have lost six straight games since Jeff Saturday won his coaching debut, so we would usually love to fade them in this spot, but the Texans are just as bad (and the 31-3 loss to the Jaguars last week was disappointing). I’ll just put them in a teaser or two.
Best Bet: Texans in teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests but Colts 60/40 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)