Tuley: Friday Best Bets, plus full NFL Week 12 picks, odds

Thursday was a day of spending time with family and giving thanks – and in the Tuley’s Takes home office it was also about football.

Our family dinner was a bountiful feast with turkey, spiral-cut honey-baked ham (which I prefer over the traditional turkey), stuffing, mashed potatoes, yams, asparagus (hard pass), cranberry sauce and pumpkin, cherry and chocolate pies.

When it was time to give thanks, I thanked the good Lord for the “dog-or-pass” philosophy as we won our Best Bet on the Lions +9.5 (closing line from Thursday’s version of this column, though we had it at +10 and trust our loyal readers were with us, plus we used it in VSiN’s BetsGiving contest for a nice start to the weekend). We also bet the Giants +10 vs. the Cowboys and made the right decision to pass on the Patriots +2.5. Again, “dog-or-pass” was gold.

The winning bet on the Lions improved our daily Best Bet record to 18-6 ATS (75%) the first 24 days of November, including 14-3 ATS (82.4%) the last 17 days.

Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting results (note that dogs also were the way to go in the one CFB game on the main betting board and in CBB Top 10 games). We also have a “Contest Corner” update on Circa Survivor with its extra “Thanksgiving Week.” We then will look for Best Bets on Friday’s loaded sports betting menu and, as has become our custom here, we’ll rerun and update our Wednesday column in which we give our “takes” on the full NFL Week 12 schedule.

Thursday’s Recaps

NFL: Vikings beat Patriots in 33-26 shootout in the Thanksgiving nightcap as they also covered after closing as 2.5-point home favorites. The game flew Over the betting total of 42 points. Faves swept 3-0 SU on the day, but dogs led 2-1 ATS. Home teams went 2-1 SU and ATS. Overs 2-1.

More NFL: Faves lead 102-62-1 SU on the season with 2 games closing pick-’em, but dogs improved to 90-69-6 ATS (56.6%). Home teams lead 87-73-1 SU with 6 neutral-site games, but road teams lead 79-76-6 ATS (51%). Unders still lead 93-72-2 (56.4%) while primetime Unders dipped to 19-15-1 (55.9%).

CFB: Mississippi State held off No. 20 Mississippi 24-22 in the “Egg Bowl.” The Bulldogs did it as 2.5-point road underdogs and +115 on the money line. The game stayed well Under the betting total of 63 points.

CBB: In Thursday's only game between Top 25 teams, No. 18 Alabama (-5) covered in its 81-70 win over No. 12 Michigan State at the Phil Knight Invitational. It wasn’t an easy day for top-ranked teams as No. 1 North Carolina (-15), No. 3 Kansas (-7.5), No. 6 Gonzaga (-28) and No. 8 Duke (-21.5) all failed to cover in their wins.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 71 live entries as 3 lost on the Patriots in the extra “Thanksgiving Week” of the $6.133 million contest at Circa Sports. Those who advanced with the Bills, Cowboys or Vikings must now pick another SU winner on the rest of the NFL Week 12 card.

Friday’s Best Bets

Wyoming +15 at Fresno State: I like Fresno QB Jake Haener as much as the next guy, but the fact is this line shouldn’t be this high. Wyoming is 7-4 (just like Fresno State) and has a Top 30 rushing offense (averaging 197 yards per game led by RB Titus Swen) and a Top 40 scoring defense (allowing just 22.8 points per game). That combo should help the Cowboys stay within two touchdowns.

Sabres +145 vs. Devils: In addition to our football picks, we’ve also been red-hot lately with our swagger/anti-swagger plays in the NHL and NBA. It wasn’t our Best Bet on Wednesday, but we cashed with the Sabres +155 against the Blues as the Sabres were a swagger play after snapping an 8-game losing streak in their prior game to get their swagger back. Now, the Sabres host the Devils, who had their 13-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday. The Bruins also had a 7-game win streak snapped the same night, so we’re looking to fade them with the Hurricanes +135. The Blues’ loss to the Sabres also snapped their 7-game win streak, but I’ll pass on fading them as the Lightning is a -170 favorite in their game (but just mentioning it for those who are interested).

 

I’m also passing on the one NBA anti-swagger play on Friday, but for those willing to lay points the Kings – who had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday – would be a play-against with the Celtics -8 on Friday night.

Welcome to our weekly Wednesday “Tuley’s Takes Today” column in which we break down the full NFL schedule.

We’re coming off another winning NFL week as we won with the Titans last Thursday and the Panthers, Lions and Raiders on Sunday as well as hitting our top teaser. However, we did lose with the Cardinals on Monday Night Football to end on a sour note, but we’re back for more in NFL Week 12, starting with the Thanksgiving tripleheader on Thursday.

We’ve also been hot with our daily top picks as we won with Ball State +3 in a 18-17 loss to Miami-Ohio in Tuesday night MACtion.

That improved our daily Best Bets to 16-6 ATS (72.7%) the first 22 days of November, including 12-3 ATS (80%) the last 15 days.

But let’s get to what everyone is here for on Wednesday. Even if I don’t have a Best Bet on a game, I’ll still give my “pool play” strategy for those who are in contests where you have to pick every game.

Buffalo Bills (-10 -105) at Detroit Lions

The Bills were the Super Bowl favorites for a long time with most people saying they had the best overall team. They even ranked No. 1 in total offense and total defense earlier this season, but while they’re still No. 2 in total offense at 417.4 yards per game, the defense only ranks No. 13 as the Bills have mostly been letting teams stick around. In fact, in addition to losing two straight games earlier this month to the Jets and Vikings, the Bills’ last five games have all been one-score games. And now they face the poster child for covering as underdog: the Lions were 11-6 ATS last season despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 6-4 ATS this year, including three straight upsets of the Packers, Bears and Giants. We gave this out at +10 at DraftKings on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and still love the play as double-digit dogs are 10-4 ATS so far this season.

Best Bet: Lions +10 (pool play: Lions in all my rare ATS contests that use Thanksgiving Day games while Bills in all my SU pools).

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

This is a tough choice because I usually love anytime I’m getting an NFL underdog of more than a touchdown, especially one with a winning record like the Giants (7-3). However, as we’ve written many times this season, the Giants have kind of been doing it with mirrors as they're a rather mediocre No. 19 in yards per game and No. 17 in yards allowed per game. The Cowboys won the earlier meeting 23-16 at the Meadowlands, but that was with Cooper Rush at QB and when the Giants were playing better, so I have to pass for now. Check out my Thursday column as I might end up taking the Giants if this gets to double digits.  

Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Giants 55/45 on principle in ATS contests, but Cowboys in all my SU pools).

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 -115)

This is another game where I’ve gone back and forth on how to play it. At +3, the Patriots were tempting and are still very teasable up to +8.5 with the line at 2.5. The Vikings certainly look more vulnerable than they did a week ago after getting absolutely dominated by the Cowboys in a 40-3 rout. The Patriots’ defense – ranked No. 4 in yards allowed per game compared to the Cowboys at No. 8 – is capable of containing Kirk Cousins, who usually struggles in primetime games. However, the Vikings should be able to bounce back from that blowout loss and I’m not sure the Patriots’ offense will be able to match them score for score. This comes down to me just feeling more confident in the teaser plays on Sunday.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Here’s another case where I don’t feel like I’m getting enough points to back the underdog (note: I’ve had a lot of success this season by passing on lines that seemed too short). I mean, this is the Jaguars and they’re only getting 4 points vs. the Ravens? Does anyone give Jacksonville any points for home-field advantage? I just can’t pull the trigger.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 60/40 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have covered their last two games (a 25-15 upset vs. the Falcons in the Week 10 Thursday nighter and covering as 13-point dogs at the Ravens in a 13-3 loss) and four of their last five games. However, we have another short home dog here, but at least the Panthers are playable in 2-team, 6-point teasers, so this is a good spot to go over our teaser portfolio for the week as we’ve been killing it with these lately. In Sunday’s early games, we want to tease the Panthers up to 8.5 along with the Titans teased up from +1.5 vs. the Bengals up to +7.5. We’ll also start teasers to the Sunday and Monday night games with the Eagles -1 vs. the Packers and Steelers +8.5 at the Colts.

Best Bet: Panthers +8.5/Titans +7.5 plus other teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests but Broncos 60/40 in SU pools).

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4)

Believe it or not, this is an important game in the NFC playoff picture with both in the wild-card chase while the Falcons (5-6) are still trying to keep up with the Buccaneers (5-5) in the NFC South. The Commanders (6-5, 6-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-10 win at the Texans last week as they’re still riding high after their 32-21 upset of the previously undefeated Eagles as 11-point road underdogs on Monday Night Football in Week 10. Taylor Heinicke has held onto the starting QB job by leading Washington to a 4-1 record in Carson Wentz’s absence, including other upsets of the Packers and Colts. The Falcons have arguably been overachieving even more this season as they covered the spread in their first six games and covered after closing as 2-point home favorites in a hard-fought 27-24 win vs. the Bears this past Sunday, though earlier bettors pushed on +/- 3. This is another game where I might end up on the Falcons eventually, but my first impression is that this li ne has been shaded just a tad too low.

  
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By VSiN