Thursday Best Bets, Wednesday Recaps
Thursday was again mostly spent following all the college basketball conference tournaments in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
For years I’ve written how there are actually more and better opportunities this week compared to the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. As I mention in the recaps below, there were 57 games on Thursday (after 56 the prior two days) while there will be just 32 NCAA first-round games next Thursday and Friday (16 each day) and 48 total through the weekend. As for my Best Bets on Thursday, I went a disappointing 1-2 ATS as Penn State pulled the minor upset of Illinois in the Big Ten but my plays on North Carolina and Oklahoma State came up short. Loyal VSiN reader David Allison (@DavidAI61763893 on Twitter) questioned me about my choices by Tweeting: “Surprised your [sic] on these teams that ‘need’ a win to get into NCAA tourney. If they were any good, they wouldn’t be in this position.” I replied that I usually agree with his point (and have written similar things over the years in almost the exact same words), but I usually use it as advice to not lay points with favorites in the role since the oddsmakers will often make bettors pay a tax on teams in “must-win situations.” I still like underdogs in the role as the points can come into play if they come up just short, especially when playing a team that is already a lock for the NCAA Tournament (note to self: I should have passed on Wisconsin vs. Ohio State on Tuesday since the Buckeyes didn’t fit the role of a vulnerable fave). However, I’m still 7-4 ATS with college b-ball plays the past week and a half, so I still feel validated that my approach is sound. In another housekeeping matter: I mentioned four plays that I was passing on Wednesday due to my “dog-or-pass philosophy” and that would track how they fared in case followers aren’t as dogmatic as yours truly: they went 2-2 with a full-unit loss for those who laid Kraken -140 vs. the Senators and Lightning -160 vs. the Golden Knights. The winners we passed on were the Senators-Kraken First-Period Over 1,5 -140 as 4 goals were scored in the opening 20 minutes and the Kings -4 vs. the Knicks as they won by 5. Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s action in the major team sports and then look for plays on Friday.Thursday Recaps
NBA: Faves went 4-2 SU but dogs led 4-2 ATS as the Nets (+9.5 in 118-113 loss at Bucks) and the Rockets (+9.5 in 134-125 loss at Pacers) covered in losses. The upsets were by the Jazz (+4.5 in 131-124 win at Magic) and Grizzlies (+3 in 131-110 win vs. Warriors). Home teams went 4-2 SU but road teams led 4-2 ATS. Over/Unders split 3-3.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 644-338 SU with 15 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs improved to 488-471-23 ATS (50.9%). Home teams lead 588-409 SU and 508-468-21 ATS (52%). In totals wagering, Overs still hold slim at 496-486-15 (50.5%).