Tuley: early NCAA Sweet 16 picks; Monday NHL Best Bet; Sunday recaps
 

 

Monday Best Bet, Sunday Recaps

Sunday was another great day following all the sports betting action, especially March Madness as the NCAA Tournament as the Sweet 16 was set.

The day got off to a disappointing start (after sleeping in after being out late Saturday night as detailed in yesterday’s version of this column) as I lost my early Best Bet on Pittsburgh +5 vs. Xavier in an 84-73 loss. At least I salvaged my day with Creighton +1 (closed -1.5) beat Baylor in the late afternoon.

I didn't have a dog in the fight, but the craziest ending was in the late TCU-Gonzaga game. I had finished my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” and was working on my daily recaps in the Galaxy ballroom on the third floor at Circa. Most of the remaining March Madness fans were needing TCU +4.5. One bettor was going out of his mind when TCU fouled Gonzaga with 0.7 seconds left as he was yelling for the player to just toss the ball in the air to run out the clock. He was literally in tears as the two free throws were made to put Gonzaga up over the spread at 84-78 as he was calling it the worst beat ever (a bit of an exaggeration, but we get it). Then TCU rolled the ball up the floor and Damion Baugh scooped up the ball in one motion and launched a 3-pointer for the miracle back-door cover at 84-81.

It was a remarkable turn of events, but in a way it wasn't shocking as this is what March Madness is all about. 

Underdogs and Overs bounced back on Sunday. We always try to remind readers that while we know a lot of people follow our daily betting trends looking for plays, the fact is that we should always be aware that these things tend to reverse once everyone gets on the bandwagon (especially as oddsmakers certainly know these trends as well and are adjusting to protect their bottom lines). As we’ll detail below, Unders were 24-8 in the first round and continued that 75% run by going 6-2 on Saturday, but Overs rebounded by going 6-2 on Sunday.

Favorites were also leading at 18-14 ATS in the first round, but dogs went 4-3-1 ATS on Saturday and 5-3 ATS on Sunday.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s action and then look for a Best Bet on Monday as well as giving our early takes on the Sweet 16 that we first gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night (my regular appearance at 11:15 p.m. ET/8:15 p.m. PT, or 15 minutes into the archived version).

Saturday Recaps

NCAA Tournament: Gonzaga beat TCU 84-81 to wrap up the round of 32 and set the Sweet16. The ViewFromVegas is Gonzaga looked like it was going to cover as a 4.5-point favorite on 2 free throws with 0.7 left, but then TCU hit a “meaningless” 3-pointer at buzzer for the cover. Faves finished 5-3 SU on Sunday, but dogs led 5-3 ATS with Fairleigh Dickinson (+15.5) covering in a 78-70 loss to Florida Atlantic in addition to the TCU cover. Upsets were by Kansas State (+3, +140 money line) in 75-69 win vs. Kentucky), Michigan State (+3.5, +155 ML in 69-60 win vs. Marquette) and Miami-Fla. (+1.5 in 85-69 win vs. Indiana). Overs bounce back at 6-2 on Sunday. 

More NCAA Tournament: Unders dominated at 24-8 (75%) in the first round and continued that pace at 6-2 on Saturday before Overs went 6-2 on Sunday to finish 8-8 in the second round, so Unders are now 32-16 (66.7%) overall. Faves were 24-8 SU and 18-14 ATS in the first round. Faves went 10-6 SU in the second round but dogs led 9-6-1 ATS. Faves now 34-14 SU and 24-23-1 ATS so far since the start of Thursday’s games.

  
Read Full Article
  
  

Avatar photo

By VSiN