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Today’s Best Bets
Here are today’s best NBA bets.
NBA Same Game Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
- Leg 1: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110)
- Leg 2: Anthony Edwards o28.5 Points (-105)
- Leg 3: Kawhi Leonard o25.5 Points (-125)
The Wolves have lost three straight, and all losses can/ should be classified as inexcusable…but this number is too high. The spread has been bet down from MIN +7.5 at open, and it wouldn’t be so shocking if it continued to dip. There are only two games separating these two teams in the standings, and some season-long Advanced Metrics rate these teams as fairly even. Further, the Clippers haven’t been so great out of the All-Star break and may be playing on tired legs after having played three overtimes in two games. Let’s back the Wolves to keep it close.
Edwards had an off game in Golden State, but he’s still one of the NBA’s best young scorers, and the Clippers can’t stop anybody right now. Every recent roster move the Clippers have made (Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland) negatively affects their defense, and this is inarguable if one has watched their past two games. The issue is that none of their guards are above-average defenders (see here for 538’s RAPTOR Player Ratings), with the exception of Terance Mann, whose minutes have been ceded to Russell Westbrook– one of the NBA’s worst defenders.
We’ll keep it brief regarding Kawhi: he is playing impeccable basketball right now. Leonard looks as good as ever and has consistently crossed this number since January. There’s no defender on the Wolves capable of keeping Kawhi off his game, if the shots fall this should cross with ease.
Parlay Odds: +571
- Tommy Jurgens
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NBA Game Picks
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
No one is giving the Lakers a chance now. With LeBron James expected to miss a lot of time, the Lakers’ playoff hopes are in danger. Plus, D’Angelo Russell is expected to miss tonight’s game as well.
The Lakers are just 29-32 on the season and 12th in the Western Conference. Los Angeles still has plenty of time to get back into the playoffs. It’s just going to be complicated.
The Grizzlies are one of the best defenses in the NBA, holding teams to 110.1 points per 100 possessions. Opponents also shoot a 52.2% effective field goal percentage while earning over 15% of turnovers. Memphis rarely gets into foul trouble, and while the Grizzlies don’t dominate the defensive glass, the Lakers haven’t been dominating the offensive glass very much this season. Adding Jarred Vanderbilt should help their case, but the Memphis defense should have its way overall.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies won’t see the foul line at a high rate. Ultimately, the Lakers will also do an excellent job at limiting turnovers. But the Grizzlies have always been very good on the offensive glass, earning second chances. Limiting turnovers will give the Grizzlies more shots and second chances opportunities.
Back the Grizzlies at -8.5 in tonight’s game.
Bet: Grizzlies -8.5 (-110)
- Jason Radowitz
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