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Today’s Best Bets
Here are today’s best NBA bets.
NBA Same Game Picks
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
- Leg 1: Under 234.5 (-110)
- Leg 2: Deandre Ayton u20.5 Points (-105)
Situationally, there is no better time to pull the trigger on an Under bet. Here are some stats for you: the Suns are 16-12 to the Under at home and 19-15-1 to the Under as a favorite. Sacramento?– they’re 18-9 to the Under on the road and 14-6-1 to the Under as an underdog. Skeptics will cite that the Kings have gone Over in three straight road games, but it’s worth noting that each of these games was trending toward the Under prior to the second half. Also, note the Kings’ elite offense (third in Adjusted Offensive Rating) drops off precipitously away from home. Sacramento’s Offensive Rating drops 7.5 efficiency points when on the road, whereas their defense improves from 27th in the NBA to 13th with the change in venue.
Ayton has been on a tear of late, crossing the 20-point threshold in eight of his past ten games played. But, with Devin Booker back in the lineup, we like Ayton to fall short of this number. Ayton’s points prop usually settles in the upper teens with Booker active, and the Suns’ big man has averaged 16.5 ppg when he shares the court with Booker. Additionally, in the two teams’'previous matchup, it was more of the same, as Booker tallied 44 points to Ayton’s 17. Logically, if we like the game Under, we like Ayton to fall short of his player prop as well. This makes for a highly correlated and smart SGP on a stacked Tuesday night.
Parlay Odds: +272
- Tommy Jurgens
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NBA Game Picks
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are heavy favorites against the Warriors tonight. Golden State has listed Klay Thompson as questionable for tonight’s game. They’re hoping he can play in the second game of a back-to-back, but the Warriors are currently uncertain.
Of course, the Warriors are also without Steph Curry right now. He’ll be out beyond the All-Star break.
The Warriors typically get good looks from the floor, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%. But when shots aren’t falling, the Warriors are helpless. They’ve turned the ball over nearly 16% of the time and have earned just 25% of offensive rebounds while earning a free throw rate of just 17.7.
The Clippers are active on the defensive glass and limit fouls. That should help them defensively against the Warriors, regardless is Thompson is playing. On the other hand, Los Angeles has been inconsistent on the offensive end.' But things are at least better when Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are playing together.
Golden State sends teams to the line often. There’s a good chance the Clippers get more freebies and add more second-chance points off offensive rebounds.
But we don’t know the complete status of Thompson for tonight. I know that if the Warriors struggle to make shots, they’re not going to have a tremendous offensive game because they rarely do the little things well. Grab the Under in this one too.
Bet: Under 228.5 (-110)'
- Jason Radowitz
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