It's a Tuesday in mid-October, which means one thing: college football.
Tuesday night features three games between Conference USA and the Sun Belt: Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee, Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky and South Alabama vs. Southern Miss.
Our writers broke down all three games with an in-depth preview and came through with a betting pick for each. This is our chance to start Week 8 of the college football season on a high note, so let's dive into the analysis.
Tuesday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the betting previews that our college football staff wrote for Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | Liberty -14.5 | |
| 7:30 p.m. | Jacksonville State +7 | |
| 7:30 p.m. | Southern Miss TT Under 17.5 | |
Middle Tennessee'vs.'Liberty
Tuesday, Oct. 177 p.m.'ETCBS Sports NetworkLiberty -14.5
By Collin Wilson
The midweek madness of Conference USA action is only halfway through the month of October, but the conference may already be decided with half a season to play.
Liberty has four wins and no losses in the conference standings, building a scoring margin of +66. The bigger quest ion is whether or not this is a look-ahead spot for the Flames with Western Kentucky looming on Oct. 24.
Middle Tennessee enters the game looking for an upset with a 1-2 conference record. The Blue Raiders defended their home turf in Week 7 to secure a win over Louisiana Tech.
Chances are slim for MTSU to make the Conference USA Championship and a third consecutive bowl game, but a win over Liberty would be a boost during an underwhelming 2023 season.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Offense has been a struggle for Middle Tennessee, starting with rushing attempts in standard downs. The Blue Raiders have been unable to produce any rushing analytics in the top 100.
Jaiden Credle and Frank Peasant have split attempts this season, but neither averages more than three yards after contact.
Head coach Rick Stockstill has one of the highest rates nationally in passing downs, as the Blue Raiders have the second-most third-down attempts in the country.
Thanks to the dual-threat abilities of Nicholas Vattiato, the quarterback keeper has been a vital weapon for the Blue Raiders.
Nicholas Vattiato fakes EVERYONE out and dives for the TD ?? @MT_FBpic.twitter.com/FZLet9NSyo
– CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 11, 2023
MTSU's multiple defense has been boom-or-bust this season, veering in and out of an even distribution of 4-2-5, 3-2-6 and 4-3 personnel. Each one of the defensive packages sends blitz on at least 44% of snaps, producing a negative play on 9% of blitz attempts.
Outside of rushing the passer, the secondary ranks top-10 in pass breakups thanks to nine forced incompletions by cornerbacks Tyrell Raby and De'Arre McDonald.
But with the good comes the bad, as Middle Tennessee ranks 127th in Defensive Finishing Drives. Opponent drives that cross the Blue Raiders' 40-yard line are averaging 4.8 points per trip.
The aggressive nature of defensive coordinator Scott Shafer has also led to a defensive pass explosive rank of 124th.
Liberty Flames
Head coach Jamey Chadwell has carried over the success from Coastal Carolina to Liberty, now with a quarterback not named Grayson McCall.
Third-year signal-caller Kaidon Salter has been better than expected, throwing 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Salter has increased his big-time throw rate from 2.4% to 10.3% while cutting down on his turnover-worthy plays by a whopping 75%.
Liberty ranks top-five in big-play rate thanks to a rank of third nationally in pass explosives.
Salter ?? Sibley
Touchdown @LibertyFootball!
??: ESPNU pic.twitter.com/vEmlPXeSRp
– Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) October 11, 2023
The F lames are a rush-heavy team, opting to run on 67% of snaps behind Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas. Liberty has one of the highest rates in standard downs, along with one of the best third-down conversion rates in all of FBS.
The defense has been equally as good with a mixture of staunch pass defense and a plethora of Havoc.
Linebacker Tyren Dupree has nearly double the tackles of any other player on the defense. Liberty lives in cover 1, producing a 57% Success Rate on opponent passing attempts.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction
The advanced statistics show heavy favoritism to Liberty on both sides of the ball.
If Middle Tennessee is to cover or win the game outright, there are specific areas to attack the Flames.
First, Liberty has a weak strength of sche dule with a remaining SOS of 122nd. The Flames have yet to be tested, unlike Middle Tennessee, which started the season against Alabama and Missouri.
The Blue Raiders will do their best to pressure Salter and force mistakes. However, Liberty ranks sixth nationally in Havoc Allowed, sporting the fifth-lowest rate of tackles for loss allowed.
The bigger issue for the Middle Tennessee defense is the high rate of pass explosives from Liberty. While the Blue Raiders have swatted plenty of pass attempts, each starter in the secondary has given up a 40-yard explosive pass.
Action Network projects this game at Liberty -17.
Middle Tennessee struggles to defend opponents in scoring position and to prevent explosives passes – two areas in which the Flames have run opponents out of the building.
The Blue Raiders' poor Success Rate and moderate explosive rate will not be enough to hang with a Liberty team on track to win a Conference USA title.
Pick: Liberty -14.5 (Play to -17)Bet the Flames Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!
Western Kentucky'vs.'Jacksonville State
Tuesday, Oct. 177:30 p.m.'ETESPNUJacksonville State +7
By Cody Goggin
Western Kentucky will travel to face Jacksonville State in another midweek Conference USA clash Tuesday night.
These two teams reside toward the top of the league standings, as both will look to finish the regular season with the best record in the conference. It could have been a key matchup in terms of postseason prognostications, but Jacksonville State isn't eligible for postseason play due to NCAA rules for programs transitioning from FCS to FBS.
Injuries will play a large factor for the Gamecocks and hamper their chances to win this week. This has caused the line to move from WKU -4.5 to -7 so far, but have we hit a possible buy point for the Gamecocks?
Let's dive into the Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State odds and make a pick and prediction in this NCAAF betting preview for Tuesday, Oct. 17.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers have been known for their effective passing offenses, especially in the Bailey Zappe and Austin Reed eras. However, it doesn't seem like this offense is firing on all cylinders to this point in the year.
Coming off a bye, Western Kentucky wil l look to get this corrected against a formidable opponent.
WKU ranks 85th in Offensive Success Rate this year, but it sits second in Finishing Drives and 35th in explosiveness. This comes primarily from the passing game, where the Tops come in at 77th in Success Rate and 61st in PPA while passing at the fifth-highest rate in the FBS.
Reed heads up this aerial attack after throwing for 4,744 yards and 40 touchdowns a year ago. This season, he's racked up 1,665 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging a modest 0.05 EPA per Dropback.
Malachi Corley has been the primary weapon in this offense, going for 538 yards and five touchdowns on the year, including a 207-yard, three-touchdown performance against Louisiana Tech in the Hilltoppers' last game.
Defense has been a struggle for this team, but it's actually done a decent job of defending the pass. While Western Kentucky ranks 94th in Defensive Success Rate and 89th in Defensive Finishing Drives as a whole, its passing defense comes in at 48th in Success Rate and 66th in PPA.
However, opposing rushing attacks have caused issues for WKU. The Tops rank 122nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 120th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Jacksonville State is a heavy rushing team, so this may pose a problem for the Hilltopper defense.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State has shown to be quite the opposite of Western Kentucky in its first season at the FBS level, making this a very interesting matchup.
Injuries may play a factor for the Gamecocks this week, though. Last week's loss to Liberty saw three injuries to this offense that may linger into Tuesday night.
Quarterbacks Zion Webb and Logan Smothers suffered injuries in Week 7, as did running back Malik Jackson. The statuses of both quarterbacks are still unknown, but head coach Rich Rodriguez described Jackson as “doubtful” to play this week.
That hurts beca use this offense has skewed heavily toward the run, ranking eighth in rush rate nationally. On this volume, the Gamecocks have the 49th-best Success Rate but rank only 89th in Rushing PPA with a mark of 101st in explosiveness.
With the quarterback carousel the Gamecocks have faced, they've struggled to move the ball through the air, sitting just 121st in Passing Success Rate and 107th in Passing PPA this season.
Ashton Frye struggled in relief last week, going 5-for-11 passing with 51 yards and a -0.34 EPA per Dropback. With this many injuries to an already struggling offense, I would be skeptical of what they will be able to do on this side of the ball on Tuesday.