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Tua Tagovailoa led the Miami Dolphins back from a 14-point deficit to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. Now, he looks to exorcize the demons and improve his poor 1-6 head-to-head record against Josh Allen when they host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football.
Miami is just 1-11 in its last 12 games against Buffalo, and despite that, the Dolphins are 2.5-point home favorites based on our Thursday Night Football odds.
Miami's 20-point performance against Jacksonville may seem underwhelming relative to expectations. However, Tagovailoa is still the NFL's passing leader (he threw for 338 yards) after Week 1.
My Tua Tagovailoa TNF player prop bets examine some of his top passing props among the trio of wagers, and I've made my Bills vs. Dolphins prediction as part of our Week 2 NFL predictions.
Tua Tagovailoa prop predictions for Thu rsday Night Football
- Tua Tagovailoa most passing yards of the game (-160 via DraftKings) ?????
- Tua Tagovailoa longest completion Over 39.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-128 via FanDuel) ???
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Tua Tagovailoa player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
This wager may have the steepest odds of my three Tagovailoa player props, but it is also backed with the most confidence as a five-star play.
Tagovailoa has an embarrassment of riches around him, starting with the receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, whose 5,879 combined receiving yards over the last two years entering this season were the most ever by a duo in a two-season span.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen entered the season with Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Mack Hollins as the only receivers on the roster with a reception last year, and Samuel led that bunch last season with just 625 scrimmage yards.
Overall, Buffalo lost 45% of its receiving yards and 52% of its receiving touchdowns from a year ago, and playing on a short week in Week 2 does not give Allen enough time to gel with a brand-new receiving corps to surpass Tagovailoa in passing yards in a head-to-head matchup.
While the -160 odds at DraftKings are steep, it is still more affordable than FanDuel's -170 odds. I am more confident in this wager based on FanDuel's -140 odds for Tagovailoa to record 100 or more passing yards in each half, while Allen has plus-money odds (+110) for the same wager.
I was tempted by DraftKings' head-to-head passing yards spread, with Tagovailoa being favored by 19.5 yards for -115, but I prefer the safety net of the moneyline wager.
Best odds: -160 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 61.54%
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As long as Tagovailoa has Hill to throw to, this is a wager he could cash just as easily with a vertical route or a simple screen pass.
Per Next Gen Stats, Hill reached 20.3 mph on his 80-yard receiving touchdown last week. It was his NFL-best 12th scrimmage touchdown since 2022 that reached 20-plus mph.
Tagovailoa ranks second in yards per attempt (8.5) in the two full seasons under head coach Mike McDaniel, and Buffalo no longer has veteran safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde (1,792 combined snaps last year) to take the top off Miami's vertical passing game. Philip Wood doesn't think it'll come to Hill in his Tyreek Hill TNF player props, but all the emphasis on defending the wideout should open things up for Waddle and Co.
BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 39.5 yards at the standard -110 juice. Others, like Caesars, are jui ced as high as -121. FanDuel's O/U is one yard higher at 40.5.
A winning $10 wager at BetMGM would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Tagovailoa posted a 22-7 TD-INT ratio and a 72% completion percentage against teams .500 or worse last year, but just an 8-7 TD-INT ratio and a 63% completion percentage against teams with a winning record.
He has thrown at least one interception in four of his seven career games against Buffalo, with multiple interceptions in two. And while the Bills are without their top two safeties from last year and slot cornerback Taron Johnson injured his forearm last week, they still pressure the quarterback well enough to force Tagovailoa into a mistake.
Our Philip Wood expects him to throw plenty as he breaks down in one of his Bills vs. Dolphins TNF player props.
The implied probability for Tagovailoa to throw at least one interception is as high as 58.16% based on Caesars' -139 odds. But the best return is with FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would return $7.81 in profits.
Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%
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Bills vs. Dolphins odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 86 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph SW
- Favorite: Dolphins (-140 via BetMGM)
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