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We cashed all three of our Jalen Hurts MNF player prop bets last week. Now we're back to keep the momentum going with a trio of Trevor Lawrence MNF player prop bets prior to the first game of the doubleheader tonight.
Lawrence's Jaguars face off against the Buffalo Bills, and the latter enters the night fifth in the Super Bowl odds.
- The Jaguars are 1-7 straight up in their last eight games, and Trevor Lawrence is 3-9 in 12 career September starts
- The Buffalo Bills' secondary looks like the strength of the defense so far
- Buffalo has been much stingier on perimeter receivers than slot receivers
As part of our NFL Week 3 predictions, here are our favorite Trevor Lawrence player props based on the Monday Night Football odds.
Trevor Lawrence prop predictions for Monday Night Football
- Trevor Lawrence longest completion Under 34.5 yard s (-114 via FanDuel) ????
- Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions (-135 via DraftKings) ????
- Trevor Lawrence Over 15.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Trevor Lawrence player props
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Buffalo's pass defense has been much more stingy on perimeter receivers than slot receivers, which will make it more difficult for Lawrence to connect on a big play downfield.
Buffalo allows a league-best 45.0% completion percentage, 3.1 yards per attempt, a 29.4 passer rating, and a 65.0% success rate ag ainst receivers who line up outside. However, the Bills give up a 70.8% completion percentage, 5.0 yards per attempt, an 81.9 passer rating, and a 50% success rate when facing slot receivers.
The total for Lawrence's longest completion is 33.5 yards at all other best sports betting sites. So I'm taking advantage of the best number at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $18.77.
Our Phil Wood also thinks Lawrence will struggle, and he discusses why in his Jaguars vs. Bills player props.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Buffalo held more talented quarterbacks in Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa to a combined 23.7 fantasy points, and Lawrence is averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game. So I was tempted to back the Under on his 1.5 passing touchdowns.
However, the cheapest price for him to throw one or fewer touchdowns is -179 at Caesars. That means the better value is for him to throw an interception for the first time this season.
This is a four-star play, as Lawrence threw at least one interception in six of his seven true road games last year, and he was picked off multiple times in each of the final three contests.
His implied probability to throw at least one interception is as high as 59.18% based on Caesars' -145 odds. The best value then lies at DraftKings, where a winning $10 wager would net $7.41 in profit.
I also think the quarterback on the other sideline is due for some turn over regression, and I outlined that argument in my Jaguars vs. Bills prediction.
Best odds: -135 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 57.45%
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Lawrence ran for 16-plus yards eight times last season, and he logged seven carries (tied for the third-most) for 31 yards in last year's game versus the Bills.
His 45 rushing yards last week was the passer's second-highest total of the last two seasons. Buffalo allows the third-lowest yards per pass attempt and ninth-lowest pass EPA this campaign, so the way to beat the Bills is on the ground.
Several of the best sportsbooks (bet365, Caesars, BetMGM) are posting the total here at 17.5 rushing yards. So Over backers are getting the best number at FanDuel.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Jaguars vs. Bills odds
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Jaguars vs. Bills
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY< /li>
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 66 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 9-mph SE
- Favorite: Bills (-250 via BetMGM)
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