Travis Kelce NFL Player Props, Odds: 9-5

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce's name has been in the headlines mainly as he relates to Taylor Swift for the last several months. He gets the opportunity to change that as he showcases his football talents in the opening game of the NFL season against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday.

Last season, the Chiefs' wideouts had plenty of issues-they led the league in drops. Kelce's connection with quarterback Patrick Mahomes was a big reason for the team's Super Bowl title. 

Kelce is one of six players who have been on the Chiefs' active roster for all three of their Super Bowl titles over the last five years, and he figures to once again be a key factor in their attempt to become the first team to three-peat. Can the Chiefs start the season on the right foot? Our Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions break that down.

What are Kelce's most appealing player props against the Ravens defense this week?

Travis Kelce prop predictions for Week 1

• Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-128 via FanDuel) ????
• Travis Kelce longest reception Over 19.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings) ???
• Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+110 via BetMGM) ???

NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Travis Kelce player props

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change.

Kelce caught 11 of Mahomes' 30 completions (on 11 targets) in last year's AFC Championship Game against the Ravens and, in the process, passed Jerry Rice for most career postseason receptions.

Mahomes is not likely to trust many of his perimeter weapons early in the season, as he had a 77% completion percentage and a 6-0 TD-INT ratio when targeting Rashee Rice last season but a 57% completion percentage and a 6-9 TD-INT ratio when targeting all other wide receivers. Our Andrew Brennan analyzes Kelce's influence on other wideouts in his Ravens vs. Chiefs player props.

All of our top sports betting sites are juiced to the Over on 5.5 receptions, but given that Kelce's implied probability for six or more receptions is near 60% with Caesars' -148 odds, sacrificing a bit in a payout is a smart investment. A $10 winning wager would pay out $17.81.

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

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Kelce's longest catch against the Ravens defense last year went for 21 yards, and his longest reception in the other three playoff games went for 22-plus yards. He had at least one catch of 20 or more yards in eight of the final 10 games of last season, including the playoffs.

Yes, Kelce is no spring chicken at 34 years old, but he could still stretch the field even being surrounded by the team's worst collection of perimeter weapons of any of their Super Bowl runs. However, I expect that the addition of rookie Xavier Worthy, the player who ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL combine history, will stretch the field considerably for the future Hall of Fame tight end.

FanDuel's odds for this wager are as high as -122 (which carries a 54.95% implied probability), but the payout on a winning $10 wager at DraftKings' -115 odds is $.50 higher ($18.70 compared to $18.20).

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Kelce has played five games in his career against Baltimore with Mahomes under center, and he's scored a touchdown in three of them. Over the last two seasons, Mahomes leads all quarterbacks with 68 passing touchdowns but has the shortest air yards per attempt on touchdowns (4.3) among the 46 quarterbacks with 10 or more touchdowns in that span.

Short touchdown throws play perfectly to Kelce's strengths, and these are decent odds given that Mahomes has a price of -180 (at DraftKings) to throw multiple touchdown passes.

BetMGM and bet365 are the only shops offering a price better than +105, and that $.50 difference will come in handy with my $10 winning wager that would return $11 in profits, compared to $10.50 or lower at competing shops.

Best odds: +110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Ravens vs. Chiefs odds

Ravens vs. Chiefs game info

• When: Thursday, Sept. 5
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
• How to watch: NBC/Peacock
• Weather: 84 degrees, 22% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph W
• Favorite: Chiefs (-155 via DraftKings)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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