Using Vegas totals and spreads, we can estimate the final score of each NFL game to project the number of points each team will score on offense and allow on defense. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. In the instance that a game spread is listed as a pick ’em, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog.
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC West
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC North
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC South
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC East
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: NFC South
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: NFC East
Check out our NFL Futures Betting Guide >>
| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Green Bay Packers | 446.25 | 368.75 | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 411.5 | 390.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Detroit Lions | 360.5 | 421.5 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 343 | 407.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 |
Green Bay Packers
- Back-to-Back MVP Aaron Rodgers helped his team finish the 2021 season top 10 in points for (450). Despite the loss of Davante Adams, early Vegas projections don’t have Green Bay falling behind all that much in 2022. Green Bay is expected to score 446.25 points, just 3.75 points fewer and top 5 in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers will find a new number one in this offense.
- The Packers have one of the best defensive backfields in football and one of the best defensive units they’ve had in a long time. It’s why the Packers are projected to allow the 4th fewest points in 2022, 368.75.