Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we've assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick  9;em.
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| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Indianapolis Colts | 411 | 375.5 | 9.4 | 9.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 404.25 | 391.75 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| Houston Texans | 327.25 | 442.75 | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 364 | 430.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 |
Indianapolis Colts
- The Colts are Vegas's favorite to win the AFC South at -115, a feat they haven't accomplished since 2014. Despite this love from Vegas, the team is only projected to score 411 points, 40 fewer than they scored a season ago.
- After the Colts added Matt Ryan to their impressive cast of 2nd-year players, Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., many experts expect this offense to flourish in 2022. Yet, they're only favored in 10 games to Tenessee's 11.
- Defensively, this unit was solid in 2021, allowing just the 9th fewest points. Thanks to high-profile additions Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore, the Colts are expected to remain solid on defense. Projects have the Colts allowing 375.5, the 6th fewest points.
- Last season with Carson Wentz under the helm, this team finished with nine wins. Matt Ryan is leaps and bounds a better quarterback than Carson Wentz, so why is the win line just 9.5? The AFC South will be paying the AFC West – arguably the toughest division in football this season; The Colts' strength of schedule is the 7th hardest this season.
- I see the Colts being significantly better on both sides of the ball in 2022. The only true competition in the AFC South this year for the Colts is the Titans, who took too many steps backward for me to consider.