Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we've assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick 'em.
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| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Baltimore Ravens | 413 | 365.5 | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 403.5 | 384.5 | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 390.25 | 379.25 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 344.75 | 397.25 | 7.1 | 7.5 |
Baltimore Ravens
- Vegas is very bullish on Baltimore's defense this season. After Baltimore allowed 392 points last season (the 14th most), they're now projected to allow the fewest in the AFC and the 2nd fewest in the entire league. The defense unit is mostly unchanged, with the most significant addition being safety Marcus Williams.
- On the other hand, the Ravens are projected to score 25 more points than they scored last season. Given the major offensive injuries the Ravens had last season, scoring just 25 more points feels conservative. When (mostly) healthy in 2020, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens scored 468 points, the 7th most.
- Baltimore and Cincinnati are +170 to win the division; Baltimore has a slight edge in Pythagorean wins at 9.66.