In my first go at this piece yesterday, we did well with both our NRFI bets hitting. Today we have a full slate of games again to choose from. Let’s dive into my favorite bets for today’s games.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
On paper, these pitchers do not look like two players we would want to target for an NRFI bet, especially against two talented offenses like the Blue Jays and Orioles. However, Kyle Bradish has been on an elite run lately, and his full-season line is blocking some changes. He has recently changed his pitch mix, throwing his cutter less, his slider more, and basically abandoning the changeup. While it has not changed his underlying results (similar K-BB% with no real change in either), his BABIP has normalized, and success has followed. The Blue Jays have an elite offense but are RH-heavy early, which should help with the new Camden Yards set-up.
On the other end of the matchup is Mitch White. White has gotten off to a rough start for the Blue Jays, but his FIP is actually similar to what he was doing for LA. He looks to have the skills of a high 3 ERA pitcher with below-average K and BB rates. However, his biggest undoing has been poor luck with LOB and BABIP. Baltimore is a FB-heavy offense which should help with the BABIP issues somewhat. I think White can hold on long enough to keep Baltimore off the board in the first.