We have been hot the last few weeks with our NRFI bets, and hopefully, we can keep it rolling today with another full slate of games.
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To begin this game, we have one of the breakout pitchers of the 2022 season, Triston McKenzie. While he is outperforming his peripherals and the estimators see him as more of a high three ERA pitcher, his flyball-heavy approach can make it tough to score in a pitcher’s park like Cleveland. The Twins have been a below-average offense in the last 30 days, and I believe that McKenzie can keep it rolling long enough to get through the first unscathed.
For the Twins, Bailey Ober takes the mound. In the last month, Cleveland, despite their winning ways, has a wRC+ of only 88, meaning that their success has mostly come from the pitching end of things. The top of their order is solid, but Ober, who was once a popular late-round stab, is talented enough to make it through. His game is command and control as he has a minuscule walk rate to go along with very few homers allowed. This type of skill set is one that makes it easy to avoid runs allowed as long as BABIP luck falls the right way. All we need is for it to make it through the first, and we hit the bet.