We swept the board yesterday, and that put us at 4-1 on NRFI for the week. Tonight, the pitching is not at the caliber it has been earlier in the week, but what that does is create value so that we are not paying a ton of juice. Let’s stay hot with my top two NRFI plays of the slate.
This matchup on the mound is a contrast of old versus you as rookie Roasny Contreras will be making his first start since July 7th. Prior to his injury, Contreras was impressive through his first nine career starts. As a result, he’ll come into this matchup with a 3.78 ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning. However, what was even more impressive was his dominance in the first inning. Contreras has not allowed a run, has a 0.89 WHIP, and has a 31 percent strikeout rate in the first inning this year. However, he’ll need to return to form in a hurry as the Red Sox are fifth in first-inning runs per game on the road.
The wily veteran Rich Hill will get the assignment for the bottom of the first. The 42-year-old Hill has had his ups and downs this season as he enters this outing with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His numbers in the first inning through 17 starts are very similar, but his WHIP is considerably lower, so there may be some positive regression on the way. If the numbers are not telling, then the matchup certainly helps. Pittsburgh is dead last in first-inning runs per game at home this year. The advantages outweigh the concerns in this NRFI, and the odds here should be a bit higher.