The Heisman Trophy is always a puzzle to pick in preseason. It seems like you are just throwing darts, and it’s hard to make a case for anyone outside the favorites. The truth is leaning into the narrative of why someone could win is as important as the player’s actual statistics.
If you look at the modern era of the last 20 years, we have had three running backs (Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, and Derrick Henry), one wide receiver (Devonta Smith), and 16 quarterbacks raise the trophy. Those running backs were on championship contenders, arguably the best player on their team, and at those exact times put up outlier-type statistical seasons. Devonta Smith had an incredible season when he won and had fortuitous luck on his side. He was widely seen as better than his QB Mac Jones, and WR Jaylen Waddle went down early, which led to an NCAA-leading 145 targets (24 more than the next closest WR).
Those are the outliers in the last 20 years. Looking into 2020, I don’t see any running back or wide receiver whose case for winning the Heisman makes sense. Even though Texas RB Bijan Robinson and Ohio State WR Jaxon-Smith Njigba are both in the top six in odds, the path for them to win isn’t viable. JSN would have to outperform his teammate QB CJ Stroud, who is the odds-on favorite, and if Texas has a transcendent season, it will be because of QB Quinn Ewers and RB Bijan Robinson would have to put up Barry Sanders-like numbers to win. Let’s dive into the parameters to win a Heisman.
Criteria to win modern-day Heisman:
- Be a quarterback
- Play for a playoff contender
- Have the opportunity to have “Heisman moments”
- Produce transcendent numbers
- Be mobile to some extent (cannot be a statue)
- Not be the preseason favorite