The Toledo Rockets (2-0) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Mississippi St is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).
The Toledo vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
Bet now on Mississippi St vs Toledo & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Toledo vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Mississippi State will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 73.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Mississippi St vs Toledo and all games with BetMGM
Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Toledo is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 9.85% ROI
- Toledo is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Toledo is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Toledo is 11-1 (.733) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .395
Toledo is 5-1 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .404
Toledo is 10-1 (.714) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .435
Toledo is 9-1 (.750) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .517
Mississippi State is winless (0-7) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .420
Mississippi State is 2-6 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .496
Mississippi State is 2-8 (.154) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .353