The Toledo Rockets (4-1) visit Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium to take on the UMass Minutemen (1-5) on Oct. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Amherst.
Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-110).
The Toledo vs. Massachusetts Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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Toledo vs Massachusetts Prediction for Week 6
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 88.8% confidence.
Toledo vs Massachusetts Spread Prediction for Week 6
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UMass will cover the spread with 57.4% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Massachusetts, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+0.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Massachusetts Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Massachusetts has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Massachusetts have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Massachusetts has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Massachusetts has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 games at home (+1.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Toledo Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Toledo players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Devin Maddox has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jerjuan Newton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Dequan Finn has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Dequan Finn has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jacquez Stuart has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Best Massachusetts Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Massachusetts players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Taisun Phommachanh has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Taisun Phommachanh has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.35 Units / -24.32% ROI).
- Toledo is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 9.01% ROI
- Toledo is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
- Toledo is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
Massachusetts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Massachusetts is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.45 Units / -36.57% ROI).
- Massachusetts is 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -52.52% ROI
- Massachusetts is 5-1 when betting the Over for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI
- Massachusetts is 1-5 when betting the Under for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
Toledo is 8-1 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season– tied for 7th-best in FBS; Average: .497
Toledo is 10-3 (.588) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .400
Toledo is 6-1 (.857) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– tied for 2nd-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .413
Toledo is 14-4 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– 5th-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .434
UMass is 1-5 (.167) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season– tied for 2nd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .688
UMass is 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: .694
UMass is winless (0-13) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .497
UMass is 2-17 (.083) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .415
UMass’s QBs has thrown for 2,836 passing yards in 18 games (just 157.6 YPG) since the 2022 season — 11th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 184.9 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — seventh-best among FBS defenses.
UMass’s QBs has thrown for 2,836 passing yards in 18 games (just 157.6 YPG) since the 2022 season — 11th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 184.9 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — third-best among NonP5 defenses.