All 30 teams are in action on a jampacked Tuesday Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
Cold weather and wind in Detroit and Chicago forced postponements of two games Monday, giving us our first look at doubleheaders for this season, with Tuesday's action starting as early as 1:10 p.m. ET.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Cleveland Guardians (-135) vs. Detroit Tigers (+115) Game 1
- Cleveland Guardians (-125) vs. Detroit Tigers (+105) Game 2
- San Francisco Giants (-120) vs. Miami Marlins (+100)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-1 10) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-110)
- Los Angeles Angels (+125) vs. New York Yankees (-145)
- Baltimore Orioles (-145) vs. Washington Nationals (+125)
- Minnesota Twins (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox (-105)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105) vs. Chicago White Sox (-115) Game 1
- Philadelphia Phillies (+105) vs. Chicago White Sox (-125) Game 2
- Texas Rangers (-125) vs. Kansas City Royals (+105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+145) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-170)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-110) vs. Houston Astros (-110)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) vs. Colorado Rockies (-105)
- Chicago Cubs (-180) vs. Oakland Athletics (-155)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+140) vs. Seattle Mariners (-165)
- Atlanta Braves (-140) vs. San Diego Padres (+120)
- New York Mets (+140) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-165)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Alex Wood Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115 via DraftKin gs) vs. Marlins ????
- Player prop: Jose Abreu Under 1.5 total bases (-155 via DraftKings) vs. Blue Jays ????
- Player prop: Lucas Giolito Over outs recorded (OFF) vs. Phillies ???
- Upset: Angels ML vs. Yankees (+130 via WynnBet) ???
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
Early numbers suggest that San Francisco Giants southpaw Alex Wood is due for some significant regression and that his 1.17 ERA is not sustainable, mainly because his xERA is 4.83. In addition, Wood ranks in the ninth percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and his stuff has not fooled hitters much based on his fourth percentile chase rate.
However, Miami is not the offense to ta ke advantage of those numbers, given that the Under on its team total has gone 11-5-1 this season.
This is a four-star play as Wood has held current Marlins to a .211/.273/.311 slash line, and he is 5-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts) at Marlins Park.
DraftKings' -115 odds provide slightly better value for this prop than Caesars' -121 odds.
At what point do we start worrying about Houston Astros slugger Jose Abreu? Abreu entered Monday with the lowest WAR (-0.3) of any hitter on the team, as his .282 on-base percentage and .269 slugging percentage are not up to par from a hitter regularly slotted in the cleanup spot.
Perhaps we should have seen Abreu's decline coming, as his 15 home runs last year in 157 games were half as many as any previous season where he played at least 145 games.
This is a four-star play as Abreu now faces Toronto's Chris Bassitt, against whom he is just 3-for-13 with no extra-base hits. FanDuel does not offer the Under on such props, and DraftKings has slightly better odds than Caesars, which is offering -158 to back the Under.
Lucas Giolito has been considered a strikeout pitcher, recording at least 177 strikeouts in his previous three full seasons. However, his 9.6 K/9 rate is on pace to be his lowest since 2018, despite an uptick in his fastball velocity.
Instead, the Chicago White Sox righty has made a conscious effort to attack the strike zone early and pitch more to contact, as his 1.8 BB/9 rate is on pace to be the lowest of his career. That has helped Giolito last deeper in games, with the seven earned runs allowed against Pittsburgh being the outlier.
Giolito has averaged 94 pitches per start, and we look for him to improve h is numbers to this point, as this is his first home start. We would play this number up to 18 outs recorded, as we expect at least six strong innings from Giolito, especially after the bullpen will be somewhat taxed from the first leg of the doubleheader.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
The New York Yankees have a significant scheduling advantage Tuesday, with the Los Angeles Angels playing the Patriot's Day game in Boston on Monday. In contrast, New York did not have to travel on its off day after playing at home throughout the weekend. However, the Yankees are just 4-6 straight up with a rest advantage since 2021, and their starting pitcher has been the worst in the rotation this season.
Clarke Schmidt has pitched to an 8.44 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings this season. Much of those struggles are attributed to being unable to get left-handed hitters out consistently. Schmidt had allowed lefties to hit .433 with an on-base percentage of .500 this year, which does not bode well for facing Shohei Ohtani and Co. In addition, Schmidt has allowed an OBA of .320 the first time through the order, which rises to .381 the second time he faces opposing batters.
This is a three-star play, as Schmidt is unlikely to eat many innings again, putting New York's injury-depleted bullpen in a precarious situation. WynnBet is the only sportsbook where one can find the Angels at higher than +125 odds.
MLB best bets made 4/18/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET.
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