Eleven of the 15 Major League Baseball games played Friday are openers of new series that will be played throughout the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.
Thursday was a great day for underdogs around Major League Baseball. Not only did they go 4-3 overall, but two of the biggest underdogs, the Pittsburgh Pirates (+234) and Detroit Tigers (+210) both won outright. Will that trend continue Friday?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) vs. Miami Marlins (-155)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-150) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+130)
- San Francisco Giants (-145) vs. Detroit Tigers (+125)
- Cleveland Guardians (-155) vs. Washington Nationals (+135)
- Minnesota Twins (+155) vs. New York Yankees (-180)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+115)
- Los Angeles Angels (-120) vs. Boston Red Sox (+100)
- Baltimore Orioles (-120) vs. Chicago White Sox (+100)
- Atlanta Braves (-140) vs. Kansas City Royals (+120)
- Texas Rangers (+140) vs. Houston Astros (-165)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-170)
- New York Mets (-210) vs. Oakland Athletics (+180)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+140) vs. San Diego Padres (-165)
- Chicago Cubs (+140) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-165)
- Colorado Rockies (+155) vs. Seattle Mariners (-180)
Friday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Sean Manaea to record win (+175 via DraftKings) vs. Tigers ???
- Player prop: Eddie Rosario Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 via DraftKings) vs. Royals ???
- Player prop: Martin Perez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-150 via DraftKings) vs. Astros ????
- Alternate run line: Mariners -2.5 (+200 via DraftKings) vs. Rockies ???
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Friday's MLB prop picks
After throwing a two-inning relief appearance in his first outing, Sean Manaea appeared fully stretched out in his initial start, going six strong innings against the Royals. He was in line for the win after leaving the game with a 5-1 lead, but Ross Stripling promptly allowed four runs in 1 2/3 innings, the dagger being a three-run game-tying home run by Salvador Perez.
We would not put anyone off backing the Over on Manaea's strikeout prop, considering he faces a Tigers lineup that ranks 29th in strikeout rate (33.3%) against left-handed pitching. And though he struck out eight Royals in his last outing, it is unlikely he is as economical with his 76 pitches in this start. However, we still expect him to complete at least five innings, and we feel we are getting tremendous value with a pitcher on a team that won 62.5% of its games (25 of 40) as the road favorite last year.
Of all the shops that have this prop available, we are making this wager at DraftKings. Its odds provide much more value than Caesars' at +156.
Eddie Rosario is in a prime RBI spot in the Braves' lineup, usually batting fifth behind All-Stars Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Matt Olson. Rosario has pedestrian numbers this season (.229/.270/.371 slash line) with just one RBI to this point, but he has seen more at-bats lately and has produced consecutive multi-hit games.
Rosario now faces Royals righty Brady Singer, against whom he is 4-for-11 with two extra-base hits and five RBIs. Moreso, he has not struck out in any of those plate appearances, suggesting he sees the ball well out of Singer's hand. The Braves' coaching staff clearly has faith in Rosario as they continue to trot him out at fifth in the lineup, and we expect the bounce-back at the plate to result in more run production going forward.
FanDuel and Caesars both offer +145 odds for this same prop, so DraftKings is the wisest choice for bettors.
Martin Perez has been lights out at home in his second stint with the Rangers, allowing zero or one earned run in 11 of 17 starts at Globe Life Field. However, this start is at Minute Maid Park, where he has a respectable 2.76 ERA in nine career appearances. However, his strikeout totals are way down there (42 Ks in 62 innings), and he has struck out current Astros a combined 20 times in 132 at-bats. Given that those same hitters have a combined slash line of .311/.367/.383 against Perez, it is more likely he will have a shorter outing than a longer one.
This is a solid four-star play, as the Astros entered Thursday with a 9.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, which is by far the lowest in the league. Once again, we are headed to DraftKings for this wager, with Caesars and FanDuel in lockstep at -158.
Friday's MLB game picks
Colorado ranked fifth in BABIP (.323) and ninth in ISO against left-handed pitching last year, but how much of that was aided by hitter-friendly Coors Field? The Rockies finished just 18th in wRC+ against southpaws and now rank 12th in BABIP, 24th in ISO, and 25th in wRC+ in road games against lefties.
Marco Gonzales has made just one start against the Rockies since 2014, but it was a brilliant one, limiting them to two earned runs in five innings in a win at Coors Field in 2021. Gonzales has held current Rockies to a .226/.305/.260 slash line. In addition, this is a three-star play as we expect Seattle's offense to jump on Colorado's Austin Gomber, who has allowed an average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage in the 82nd and 87th percentile, respectively, through two starts.
DraftKings again offers the best value for bettors, as Caesars and FanDuel offer +172 and +188 odds, respectively, for the same alternate run line.
MLB best bets made 4/14/2023 at 6:16 a.m. ET.
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