Mondays are a common off day in the Major League Baseball regular season, but this week we're treated to a full 15-game slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox are the only two teams who play their home openers today, but that means we're treated to afternoon baseball, as both games have their first pitch at 3:10 p.m. ET or earlier.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New York Mets (+105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
- San Francisco Giants (+115) vs. Chicago White Sox (-135)
- Chicago Cubs (-120) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+100)
- Minnesota Twins (-125) vs. Miami Marlins (+105)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+135) vs. New York Yankees (-155)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-170) vs. Washington Nationals (+145)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) vs. Boston Red Sox (-170)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-130) vs. Kansas City Royals (+110)
- Atlanta Braves (-120) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+100)
- Baltimore Orioles (+125) vs. Texas Rangers (-145)
- Detroit Tigers (+190) vs. Houston Astros (-225)
- Los Angeles Angels (+125) vs. Seattle Mariners (-145)
- Cleveland Guardians (-150) vs. Oakland Athletics (+130)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) vs. San Diego Padres (-135)
- Colorado Rockies (+190) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-225)
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Michael Kopech Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Giants (-106 via FanDuel) ???
- Player prop: Aaron Judge to hit a home run vs. Phillies (+ 230 via Caesars) ???
- Player prop: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 total bases vs. Twins (+125 via FanDuel) ????
- Upset: Royals ML vs. Blue Jays (+120 via WynnBet) ????
Monday's MLB prop picks
Chicago White Sox starter Michael Kopech faces a San Francisco Giants team that ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in strikeout percentage (23.9%) last season. Kopech's 7.9 K/9 rate was a considerable drop-off from the 13.4 rate he posted in 2021, largely because of a -2.4 drop in MPH on his fastball. However, the vertical movement on his four-seamer was consistent with 2021, and his slider averaged more than an inch of drop, which should have him generating more of the 36% whiff rate that he had in 2021 with that pitch compared to the 21.3% from a year ago.
Kopech still finished with a 3.54 ERA in what was considered a down year, and his fastball velocity an d spin rate ranked in the 72nd and 98th percentile, respectively. This is a three-star play, as we are not as worried about velocity in the first start of the season.
The juice is most affordable at FanDuel compared to the -111 and -120 found at Caesars and DraftKings.
Aaron Judge is proving to be worth every penny of the nine-year, $360M deal he signed with the New York Yankees in the offseason, as he has hit a team-leading .462 with a 1.385 OPS through the first three games. That includes two home runs, and he has a good chance of making it three when facing the Philadelphia Phillies' Taijuan Walker, whom he has homered off four times in 11 at-bats.
Walker has allowed at least one home run per nine innings in four of the last five seasons, and his 40.6% hard-hit percentage allowed last year was the second-highest of his career.
Caesars has slightly b etter odds than the +220 found at BetMGM, while FanDuel offers an enticing +310 parlay if you think Judge will homer and the Yankees will win.
Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez has hit safely in every game this season, continuing right where he left off as the American League batting champion. He has nine hits, and though just one has gone for extra bases, data suggests he could be in line for more success in the power department Monday.
Arraez's 6% whiff rate on elevated fastballs was second-best in the league last season, per Inside Edge, and his .329 average was eighth-best. Conversely, Minnesota Twins starter Tyler Mahle elevated his fastball 58% of the time last season, 10th-most among all starting pitchers (min. 64 IP). Arraez is 2-for-5 in his career against Mahle. While the Twins have a detailed scouting report on Arraez, as he was with the organization for the last four seasons, the second baseman wi ll also be motivated in his first game against his former teammates.
FanDuel provides the best odds for this wager, with DraftKings and BetMGM slightly worse at +120.
Monday's MLB game picks
This is a curiously low line for a Kansas City team that mustered just four runs through its first three games. However, oddsmakers may be tipping their hands as a fade of Toronto Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios, who led the league in two categories you never want to lead as a pitcher: earned runs and hits allowed. Berrios pitched to a 6.36 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 16 road starts last year. His home run rate was also astronomically high on the road compared to at home, as he surrendered 18 home runs in 80.2 road innings but just 11 home runs in 91.1 innings at the Rogers Centre.
Meanwhile, Kansas City's Brady Singer won 10 games for the first time last year and had career-bests in ERA (3.23), FIP (3.58), WHIP (1.141), and BB/9 (2.1). He was 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA at Kauffman Stadium last year, and his tOPS and sOPS of 90 and 84 against right-handed bats versus 111 and 102 against left-handed bats bodes well for his chances of success against Toronto's right-handed dominant lineup.
MLB best bets made 4/3/2023 at 7:03 a.m. ET.
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