Twenty-eight of 30 teams are in action on a near-full Monday Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
No team has played more than 10 games yet this season, and already we have two teams favored to win their respective divisions at DraftKings that did not start the year as favorites. The Milwaukee Brewers took two out of three games at home against the St. Louis Cardinals this past weekend and are now -135 favorites to win the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins have a slim half-game lead on the Cleveland Guardians, but that is good enough to make them small +125 favorites in the AL Central.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Chicago White Sox (+105) vs. Minnesota Twins (-125)
- New York Yankees (+115) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-135)
- Oakland Athletics (+155) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-180)
- Houston Astros (-175) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+150)
- Boston Red Sox (+130) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-150)
- Miami Marlins (-120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+100)
- San Diego Padres (+105) vs. New York Mets (-125)
- Cincinnati Reds (+160) vs. Atlanta Braves (-190)
- Seattle Mariners (-140) vs. Chicago Cubs (+120)
- Kansas City Royals (+140) vs. Texas Rangers (-165)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-130) vs. Colorado Rockies (+110)
- Washington Nationals (+185) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-215)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+140) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-1 65)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) vs. San Francisco Giants (+120)
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (+108 via Caesars) vs. Twins ????
- Player prop: Shane Bieber to record win (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ???
- Player prop: Yandy Diaz to score run (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ???
- Total: Astros-Pirates Under 8 (-120 via WynnBet) ????
Monday's MLB prop picks
White Sox ace Dylan Cease is fourth in the majors in strikeouts, and his 14.3 K/9 rate is on pace to smash his 12.3 K/9 rate that led the league in 2021. Cease has strikeout totals of eight and 10 this season and struck out 15 Twins in two appearances last year.
Though the Twins rank tied for the 11th-lowest strikeout percentage (20.9%), four hitters who are projected to be in Monday's lineup (Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Michael Taylor, and Trevor Larnach) each have struck out in at least 40% of their career at-bats against Cease (all have 10-plus at-bats).
Caesars offers slightly better odds than its competitors, as DraftKings and FanDuel have lower plus-money odds at +105 and +104, respectively.
The Yankees are rarely underdogs, as it typically takes a massive pitching edge to find them at plus odds. New York has won 44% of its games as an underdog since 2018 (48-61) but is a worthy underdog Monday as it faces a former Cy Young Award winner while trotting out its most vulnerable starting pitcher.
Yankees righty Domingo German has gone just 6-11 over the last three seasons after leading the league with a .818 winning percentage in 2019. German had an interesting line in his first start this season, striking out 44.4% of batters and ranking in the 93rd percentile among all pitchers in whiff percentage. However, he also allowed a ton of hard contact and ranks in the sixth and eighth percentile in barrel percentage and xSLG. respectively.
Meanwhile, Guardians ace Shane Bieber is used to getting off to hot starts, as his 2.87 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 rate in March/April starts are all second-best among any month in his career.
Caesars is one of the only other sportsbooks that offers this prop, but its odds are slightly worse at +145.
The Rays have taken advantage of a weak schedule (their three opponents are 7-21 overall) to pad their offensive stats. Tampa Bay leads the league with 64 runs scored, and since its opponent, the Red Sox, ranks second in the majors with 55 runs, it makes sense to get on board with a player who we find is most likely to cross the plate.
Yandy Diaz is tied for the team lead (and tied for sixth in the majors) with nine runs scored, and his success against Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta suggests he should again be on base frequently. Diaz has a career slash line of .286/.412/.500 against Pivetta, so he will likely improve upon his .222 batting average in this matchup.
In addition, teammate Randy Arozarena, who hits behind Diaz in the lineup, is slashing .333/.467/.500 against Pivetta, which means he has solid protection for when he gets on base.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering plus odds for this prop, as Caesars is slightly worse at -107.
Monday's MLB game picks
The Astros have been fixtures atop the league leaders in runs scored over the last several years. Still, this version that is missing Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley is a shell of what their World Series-winning lineups looked like, even though they have still tied for the ninth-most runs scored in the league.
Houston and Pittsburgh rank 15th and 16th in BABIP, respectively, while the Astros are a disappointing 26th in wOBA. And though the Pirates have relied on a surprising power surge for much of its offense so far, Astros southpaw Framber Valdez has not allowed a home run in his last 42 2/3 innings, per Inside Edge.
While it is tempting to head to DraftKings or PointsBet for this wager, who each offer +100 odds to back the Under of 7.5, we do not mind paying up slightly for an extra half-run of insurance at WynnBet, ensuring that it will take nine runs or more to lose this wager.
MLB best bets made 4/10/2023 at 7:51 a.m. ET.
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