The third series of the season will conclude during a jam-packed Sunday around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds.
The Tampa Bay Rays are now 8-0 to start the season, earning a four-plus run victory in each game. They've set a record for the best run differential (plus-46) of any team since 1901, according to Jim Passon. And from a betting perspective, the Rays are now 18-0 in their last 18 contests as a favorite of at least -165 or higher.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Sunday's MLB schedule and odds
- Cincinnati Reds (+150) vs. Philadelphi a Phillies (-175)
- Boston Red Sox (-120) vs. Detroit Tigers (+100)
- Oakland Athletics (+245) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-295)
- New York Yankees (-155) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+135)
- Chicago White Sox (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-105)
- Miami Marlins (+130) vs. New York Mets (-150)
- Seattle Mariners (-130) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+110)
- Houston Astros (-115) vs. Minnesota Twins (-105)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+130) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-150)
- Texas Rangers (-110) vs. Chicago Cubs (-110)
- Washington Nationals (+120) vs. Colorado Rockies (-140)
- Kansas City Royals (+140) vs. San Francisco Giants (-165)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+105) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-125)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+115)
- San Diego Padres (+100) vs. Atlanta Braves (-120)
Sunday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Nestor Cortes Over 5.5 strikeout s vs. Orioles (-102 via FanDuel) ???
- Player prop: George Kirby Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Guardians (-160 via DraftKings) ????
- Player prop: Nolan Arenado to record an RBI vs. Brewers (+175 via DraftKings) ??
- Total: Blue Jays-Angels Over 9.5 runs (-110 via BetMGM) ????
Sunday's MLB prop picks
Cortes is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA in seven appearances (five starts) against the Baltimore Orioles. That ERA is the lowest against any opponent he's made at least one start against, as is his 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
The lefty has been enjoying tremendous success against three Orioles hitters projected to be in the lineup on Sunday. Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays are a combined 5-for-29 with 18 strikeouts against Cortes, and the southpaw has held all current Orioles to a .160/.209/.221 slash line.
< p class='text-left'>The Under is 19-8 in New York's previous 27 games, and we expect Cortes to do his part to ensure that trend continues. FanDuel and Caesars offer the same -102 odds to back the Over on this strikeout total, which saves bettors money compared to DraftKings' standard -110 odds.
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Seattle righty George Kirby showed elite command over 130 innings during his first Major League season in 2022, walking just 1.5 batters per nine innings. While the Rookie of the Month for August allowed a hard-hit percentage close to 40% (38.9%), he also established an elite ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (0.84), resulting in him giving up fewer than one home run per nine innings.
All those factors should help him turn in a solid outing against the Guardians and rebound from a poor first showing. Kirby was tagged for nine hits over 4 1/3 innin gs during his first start against the Angels. But he was still asked to throw 84 pitches, which suggests he's earned the confidence of his manager.
Kirby's total for hits allowed is set at 5.5, with the Under at more affordable -120 odds. But opt for the Under on his earned run total as a more sensible play.
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Nolan Arenado has struck out in over one-third of his 17 at-bats against Brewers starter Freddy Peralta. However, he's also logged six hits against him, including three home runs, leading to an OPS of 1.303 in a small sample size. Arenado should be on the base paths quite a bit if his .474 wOBA against Peralta is any indication.
This is a three-star play because Arenado hits behind the reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who boasts a slash line of .438/.500/.1000 against Peralta. That's why there will likely be RBI opportunities when Arenado comes to the plate.
DraftKings' +175 odds for this wager are a steal compared to the +110 at FanDuel and +156 at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Sunday's MLB game picks
Few starters toeing the rubber on Sunday have produced worse career numbers against their opponent than Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi has allowed a .341/.402/.632 slash line during 88 combined at-bats against current Angels hitters. And to make matters worse, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani have done the most damage against him. Trout is 6-for-14 (two home runs) with a 1.484 OPS against Kikuchi, while three of Ohtani's four hits when facing the lefty have gone for extra bases, resulting in a .925 OPS.
Conversely, Toronto ranked se venth in wRC+ and ISO and 10th in wOBA against southpaws in 2023. The Blue Jays should therefore enjoy success against Angels lefty Reid Detmers. None of his primary four pitches generated a whiff percentage higher than 30% in 2022.
The Over has cashed in 13 of the previous 18 meetings between these teams. However, the Under has hit six consecutive times when the Angels have faced a lefty.
Sunday's MLB best bets made 4/9/2023 at 7:01 a.m. ET.
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