Today's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Tuesday's Best Baseball Prop Bets

Where did the Aaron Judge of June go? While the New York Yankees slugger has struggled to start July, we highlight why he's poised to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday at 6:50 p.m. ET in today's MLB player props.

Before the MLB MVP odds favorite in the AL takes the field, two World Series odds leaders will battle as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6:40 p.m. ET. Our Mike Spector breaks that game down in detail in his Dodgers vs. Phillies player props.

The other two games I've got my eye towards are between the Miami Marlins and Houston Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET and the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.

Tuesday's MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases (-109 via Caesars) ????
• Aaron Judge Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105 via DraftKings) ???
• Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs (-125 via bet365) ????
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+140 via bet365) ???

MLB player props

Game info: Dodgers vs. Phillies | Moneyline: Phillies (-140 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-105)/Under 9 (-115) via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

The return of Bryce Harper is imminent, but Bohm has been holding it down for the Phillies in his absence. One of the breakout stars of the season, Bohm is heading to his first All-Star game and should have a strong outing against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are set to start Bobby Miller, who has been far from the spectacular rookie we saw last season. Miller has been dealing with a shoulder injury, and since his return, he's pitched just 13 1/3 innings across three starts while giving up 10 earned runs.

He also predominantly goes to his four-seamer (44.4%), a pitch that Bohm is batting .356 against with a .574 SLG. Averaging 1.9 total bases per game this season, I love the odds from Caesars against a struggling Miller. They pay a $9.17 profit on a $10 bet.

Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%

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Game info: Yankees vs. Rays | Moneyline: Yankees (-125 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-120)/Under 8 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 6:50 p.m. ET

Frankly, it's shocking to see Judge struggling. He slashed .409/.514/.864 in June and looked like he would run away with AL MVP. While he hasn't had a strong start to July, nor have the Yanks, he's positioned for a get-right game against the Rays.

Tampa Bay is starting Ryan Pepiot, who absolutely loves going to his four-seamer (51.9%). That's not a pitch I'd recommend using against Judge, but when you're going to it more than half the time, what choice do you have? Judge is slapping four-seamers harder than Will Smith slapped Chris Rock.

He's batting .323 with a .770 xSLG and a 65.7% hard-hit rate against them this season. On any given pitch, Judge could mas h a dinger and cash this prop in one at-bat. If he does, a $10 bet pays a $10.50 profit.

Best odds: +105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 48.78%

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Game info: Marlins vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-230 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Since June 19, the Astros are 13-4. Are they cheating? Maybe. We'll never know, but that's fine with me as long as Altuve scores a run against Miami. The Marlins are so bad that I could probably score a run against them, so I'm happy that bet365 has a reasonable price on this prop.

You'd think the odds would be shorter, with Altuve dominating June and carrying that momentum into July by hitting .391. In his last 29 games, he's scored 19 runs, and there's no concern with him getting on base against Miami. Trevor Rogers is starting, and Altuve is hitting .301 or better against three of his four pitches.

To bring the All-Star home, Yordan Alvarez is battin g two spots behind him and has a .505 or better SLG against three of Rogers' pitches. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays an $8 profit.

Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%

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Game info: Blue Jays vs. Giants | Moneyline: Giants (-130 via bet365) | Total: Over 7.5 (-115)/Under 7.5 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 9:45 p.m. ET

The home run derby is just around the corner, and who better to back this month than a former derby champ? Guerrero Jr. went from having an ugly first full month of the season to cooking pitchers after slashing .318/354/.608 in June.

Vladdy has averaged 2.2 total bases per game since the start of June and can keep that pace up against the Giants. San Francisco is putting Blake Snell on the mound with his 9.51 ERA. The two-time Cy Young winner has been a mess while dealing with injuries this season.

In 23 2/3 innings of work, he's allowed 32 hits, 25 earned runs, and four homers while using his four-seamer 47.2% of the time. Guerrero is batting .333 against them, and .389 against his next go-to pitch (curveball). A $10 bet on this prop pays a $14 profit.

Best odds: +140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 41.67%

MLB player props made Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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