We have a 6-pack of NBA games for tonight and at first glance, it appears a bit ugly. Three games have spreads of 8.5 or higher and blowouts appear to be on the horizon following an exciting weekend of March Madness. Kyrie and Luka are still questionable at the time of writing this, as well as Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Anthony Edwards. We will do our best to limit our exposure and only focus on the plays we have an edge on. I am picking 62% over my last 21 plays given (including the NCAA Tournament). Let's roll!
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Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU) under 31.5 PRA (-105)
This line is +2 above his season average of 30 PRA per game. He is 1-1 against the Warriors this season against a line of 31.5. Since the all-star break, KPJ has yet to return to form in the scoring column and is only averaging 16.7 ppg vs 19.2 pre-ASB. His March averages are at 29.1 PRA and for me, this number is just too high. Golden State is currently slotted into the 7th seed and wants to get out of the play-in spot. Steph and Klay will return tonight and I expect Kerr to have them focused with 10 games remaining.