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Our search for baseballs that fly deep into the great beyond leads us to focusing a whole lot on the AL Central on Tuesday.
The two sluggers in question are at vastly different stages of their careers, but they're tattooing balls nonetheless. Luis Robert of the Chicago White Sox has been regularly doing that so far during his limited time being healthy in 2024, and the Kansas City Royals' Salvador Perez remains ageless.
They feature prominently in our home run props for Tuesday. FanDuel often offers quality odds in this market, surely to go along with its regular Dinger Tuesday promotion.
Home run props for Tuesday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Luis Robert (+325 via Caesars) vs. Twins (Bailey Ober), at Guaranteed Rate Field ???
- Matt Chapm an (+440 via FanDuel) vs. Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi), at Oracle Park ???
- Salvador Perez (+480 via FanDuel) vs. Cardinals (Andre Pallante), at Busch Stadium ???
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 10 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .490 | HR/FB%: 10.8 |
| FB%: 27.8 | FB%: 31.7 |
| Hard hit %: 44.4 | Hard hit %: 36.5 |
Robert has missed a sizable chunk of playing time in 2024 due to a hip injury suffered in early April. And yet he's still clubbed 10 homers over just 38 games.
He feasts on heat, which means Robert is ideally positioned for success against Bailey Ober of the Minnesota Twins. Robert has posted a slugging percentage of .656 against four-seamers in 2024, and he finished even higher at .714 in 2023. Ober features a mix of pitches while using three 20-plus percent of the time. But his four-seamer is easily the most used at 38.6%
Our best sports betting sites are all hovering around the same territory if you're shopping to back Robert to tee off again. But Caesars offers a slight edge with this price that would lead to a $42.50 payout on a $10 wager.
Best odds: +325 via Caesars | Implied probability: 23.43%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 12 | HR/9: 1.2 |
| SLG%: .423 | HR/FB%: 9.0 |
| FB%: 25.3 | FB%: 28.4 |
| Hard hit %: 46.8 | Hard hit %: 45.3 |
Matt Chapman will never be mistaken for a contact hitter. There's been one exception outlier season, and now his batting average sits at a very typical .244.
But as always, we care far more about quality than quantity around these parts when it comes to contact. And Chapman frequently pulverizes baseballs when he does square one up, with an average exit velocity of 92.3, which sits among the top 9% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant.
That sets him up well against Yusei Kikuchi of the Toronto Blue Jays, who's been a lauchpad recently while allowing eight home runs since the beginning of June, four of which came in one game. Kikuchi has also surrendered four-plus earned runs in four games over that time, and Chapman is producing a sky-high .986 OPS against lefties.
Avoid Draftkings, with its far lower price of +330. These odds from FanDuel will pay out $54 on a $10 wager.
< p class=''>Best odds: +440 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 18.52%
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 14 | HR/9: 0.8 |
| SLG%: .454 | HR/FB%: 8.7 |
| FB%: 33.3 | FB%: 16.9 |
| Hard hit %: 47.5 | Hard hit %: 41.9 |
Salvador Perez cares little for the looming presence of Father Time and your concerns about aging. The 34-year-old still spends plenty of time behind the plate at a highly demanding position physically, and yet he boasts an OPS that's just a few ticks under .800.
There's plenty of power in his bat too, with a slugging percentage that's increased from .422 in 2023 to .454 now. And the chasm of room ahead of him for positive regression is even more encouraging while we lean on his home run potential Tuesday, or any night.
Perez has been getting unlucky, with an expected slugging percentage of .537 that ranks among the top 5% in MLB, and it's far higher than his actual slugging mark.
Now the veteran is set up well against Andre Pallante of the St. Louis Cardinals, who's making only his 18th career start. Pallante leans exceedingly heavily on his four-seamer while throwing it 51.6% of the time, and Perez is slugging .479 against fastballs.
Most of our other best sportsbooks are sitting around +425 here, so pounce on this price from FanDuel that pays out $58 on a winning $10 wager.
Best odds: +480 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 17.24%
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