The Detroit Tigers (+150) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-185) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Tigers are 39-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 41-45 ATS.
Tigers vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda 2-4, 5.87 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 7-4, 4.32 ERA
Tigers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Tigers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 60.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 26 games (+22.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.40 Units / 45% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 69 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.55 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 66 games (+8.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 38-48 against the Run Line (-15.8 Units / -13.65% ROI).
- 39-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -11.67% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.15 Units / 6.71% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -15.91% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 41-45 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -4.73% ROI).
- 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -6.78% ROI
Twins vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manuel Margot (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda (DET) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 6.5 +130 | 6.5 -165 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (54/175) against Kenta Maeda in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (40/164) against Kenta Maeda on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (43/173) against Kenta Maeda’s curve and slider since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (97/193) of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (26/90) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Bailey Ober has a strikeout rate of 70% (19 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has an ERA of 7.62 (28.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.66 — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .639 (46 Total Bases / 72 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — first Percentile.